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UK Statistics and Information: Energy Scenarios
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DECC Energy and Emissions Projections
Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC)
  Annual energy projections, analyzing and projecting future energy use and greenhouse gas emissions in the UK to assist in monitoring progress towards meeting carbon budgets for the UK and to inform energy policy and associated analytical work across government departments. The projections are based on assumptions of future economic growth, fossil fuel prices, electricity generation costs, UK population and other key variables regularly updated. They also give an indication of the impact of the uncertainty around some of these input assumptions.
 
Options for a Low Carbon Future
Department for Trade and Industry (DTI), now BIS
  Summary of analyses of options for a low carbon economy (includes MARKAL model results by Future Energy Solutions). This report contains the results of a study, undertaken on behalf of DTI, DEFRA and the PIU, to develop a range ofbottom-up estimates of carbon dioxide emissions from the UK energy sector up to 2050, and to identify the technical possibilities and costs for the abatement of these emissions. Three levels of abatement by 2050 have been considered: a 60% reduction relative to emissions in 2000 - approximating to the level considered by the Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution (RCEP 2000) - plus 45% and 70% reductions relative to 2000 levels.
 
Options for a Low Carbon Future: Review of Modelling Activities and an Update
Department for Trade and Industry (DTI), now BIS
  This report summarises the modelling work undertaken for the 2003 Energy White Paper using the MARKAL energy model. It describes the scenarios andsensitivities used in the modelling work. It concludes that there is a variety of carbon abatement options across the energy supply sector, in improving energy efficiency and across the transport sector. Total abatement costs are uncertain and vary considerably by scenario andsensitivity but are unlikely to have a significant impact on GDP growth.Innovation and technical progress are key elements in reducing the costs ofcarbon abatement. The report compares the costs from the MARKAL model with those from a range of other models. Most of the studies suggest GDP losses of under 3% in 2050. It looks at the different types of economic models used to analyse abatement costs and the reasons why they might produce varying cost estimates