This case study examines Combined Cycle Gas Turbine (CCGT) cost forecasts as well as coeval cost estimates and their underlying methodologies. It was prepared as part of a series of case studies designed to inform the UKERC TPA report ‘Presenting the Future: An assessment of future cost estimation methodologies in the electricity generation sector.’
The study is the result of an extensive review of scientific journal articles as well as industry and government reports; it also draws on key insights from innovation theory. The presentation structure is aligned to the three aims of the study, namely:
- To examine trends in contemporaneous cost estimates and in cost forecasts (Section 2);
- To understand the driving factors of those trends and the reasons for disparity between anticipated and actual costs (Section 3);
- To draw lessons and identify implications for cost estimation methodologies (Section 4).