UKERC Energy Data Centre

We are faced with the twin urgent challenges of delivering a low carbon and secure energy system. The last few years have seen Britain moving from being a net exporter to a net importer of energy. The threat of climate change has led to the slow but inexorable inclusion of environmental concerns in mainstream energy policy. Against this backdrop, economic and political power around the globe has altered, creating a complex, multipolar world. Rising concerns about the long term availability and price of oil, gas and uranium only add to the challenges facing Britain. This timely volume brings together key researchers and practitioners from a wide range of disciplines, including energy policy, international relations and supply chains, to explore the practical policy options in addressing energy security in Britain.

An effective energy technology strategy has to balance between setting a stable long term framework for innovation, while also responding to more immediate changes in technology cost and performance. Over the last decade, rather than a steady progression along an established learning curve, PV costs and prices have been volatile, with increases or plateaus followed by rapid reductions. The paper describes, and considers the causes of, recent changes in PV costs and prices at module and system level, both international trends and more place-specific contexts. It finds that both module and system costs and price trends have reflected multiple overlapping forces. Established forecasting methods – experience curves and engineering assessments – have limited ability to capture key learning effects behind recent PV cost and price trends: production scale effects, industrial re-organization and shakeouts, international trade practices and national market dynamics. These forces are likely to remain prominent aspect of technology learning effects in the foreseeable future – and so are in need of improved, more explicit representation in energy technology forecasting.

Energy system scenarios and modelling exercises may under-represent the learning potential of emerging technologies such as marine energy. The research described here was devised to represent this potential, and thereby explore the possible role of marine energy in future energy systems. The paper describes a scenario for the accelerated development of marine energy technology, and the incorporation of this scenario into wider scenarios of UK energy system decarbonisation from now to 2050. The scenarios suggest that the accelerated development of marine energy could contribute significantly to the decarbonisation of energy supply in the UK, especially over the medium to long term. However, this is predicated on sustained innovation, learning and cost reduction over time. Encouragingly, a number of recently established policy support programmes are now beginning to stimulate the development of marine energy in Scotland, the UK and beyond. As the paper discusses, building on these initiatives, and ‘realising’ the accelerated development of marine energy, present a number of challenges, and will increasingly require international efforts. However, the potential rewards are very substantial.

Understanding and supporting learning for different emerging low carbon energy supply technology fields is a key issue for policymakers, investors and researchers. A range of contrasting analytical approaches are available: energy system modelling using learning rates provides abstracted, quantitative and output oriented accounts, while innovation studies research offers contextualised, qualitative and process oriented accounts. Drawing on research literature and expert consultation on learning for several different emerging energy supply technologies, this paper introduces a ‘learning pathways’ matrix to help bridge between the rich contextualisation of innovation studies and the systematic comparability of learning rates. The learning pathways matrix characterises technology fields by their relative orientation to radical or incremental innovation, and to concentrated or distributed organisation. A number of archetypal learning pathways are outlined to help learning rates analyses draw on innovation studies research, so as to better acknowledge the different niche origins and learning dynamics of emerging energy supply technologies. Finally, a future research agenda is outlined, based on socio-technical learning scenarios for accelerated energy innovation.

This unique book illustrates that in order to address the growing urgency of issues around environmental and resource limits, it is clear that we need to develop effective policies to promote durable changes in behaviour and transform how we view, and consume, goods and services. It suggests that in order to develop effective policies in this area, it is necessary to move beyond a narrow understanding of ‘how individuals behave’, and to incorporate a more nuanced approach that encompasses behavioural influences in different societies, contexts and settings. 

This timely Handbook reviews many key issues in the economics of energy and climate change, raising new questions and offering solutions that might help to minimize the threat of energy-induced climate change.

Constructed around the objectives of displaying some of the best of current thinking in the economics of energy and climate change, this groundbreaking volume brings together many of the world's leading and most innovative minds in the field to cover issues related to:

* fossil fuel and electricity markets
* environment-related energy policy
* international climate agreements
* carbon mitigation policies
* low-carbon behaviour, growth and governance.

Serving as an indispensable guide to one of the fastest-growing fields of economics, this invaluable resource will strongly appeal to students, academics and policy makers interested in energy, environmental and climate change issues

Buildings are the nation's greatest energy consumers. Forty percent of all our energy is used for heating, cooling, lighting, and powering machines and devices in buildings. And despite decades of investment in green construction technologies, residential and commercial buildings remain stubbornly energy inefficient. This book looks beyond the technological and material aspects of green construction to examine the cultural, social, and organizational shifts that sustainable building requires, examining the fundamental challenge to centuries-long traditions in design and construction that green building represents.

The contributors consider the changes associated with green building through a sociological and organizational lens. They discuss shifts in professional expertise created by new social concerns about green building, including evolving boundaries of professional jurisdictions; changing industry strategies and structures, including the roles of ownership, supply firms, and market niches; new operational, organizational, and cultural arrangements, including the mainstreaming of environmental concerns; narratives and frames that influence the perception of green building; and future directions for the theory and practice of sustainable construction. The essays offer uniquely multidisciplinary insights into the transformative potential of green building and the obstacles that must be overcome to make it the norm.

The potential role of microgeneration in energy supply, carbon emissions reduction, energy security and even fuel poverty has been a topic of much interest in the past few years. Industry and government focus has been on financial tools and other policies aimed at maximising uptake. However, some recent studies on solar hot water and heat pumps suggest that not all microgeneration installations are delivering the expected energy or emissions savings, and consumers are in turn not reaping the expected financial benefits. The reasons are a mixture of technical problems and poor installations, institutional issues, poor information supply to users, and improper use. Such issues could delay or jeopardise plans for rolling out microgenerators such as heat pumps. This article considers what policies would help maximise the above-listed benefits of microgeneration, including the implications for the Renewable Heat Incentive, and the importance of measuring actual energy savings in homes. Given the mixed nature of the issues, a broader systemic view is used to analyse the institutional, cultural and behavioural reasons for the discrepancies in energy savings.

The use of feed-in tariffs (FITs) is now widespread for renewable energy and under discussion for other low carbon electricity generation, but not for energy efficiency. There is a small literature on FITs for electricity demand reduction, but not energy efficiency more generally. This paper considers the general application of FITs on the demand side and sets out the economic arguments in the context of changing energy markets. It then discusses the implications of some practical issues, including the definitional problems arising from the difference between energy efficiency and demand reduction. Using experience from historical energy efficiency programmes, it considers the public benefits, payment methods and policy scope that need to be considered and how these might affect policy design. It makes some provisional estimates of economically justified payments in the context of the proposed UK energy market reform. It concludes that FITs for energy saving might be a powerful tool for incentivising energy efficiency.

A ‘middle-out’ perspective is used to investigate potential roles for professionals and practitioners in creating societal change. Social and technological innovations are commonly seen as either being induced from the ‘top-down’ or evolving from the ‘bottom-up.’ Instead, a ‘middle-out’ perspective focuses on agents of change that are located in the middle, between the top and the bottom. This perspective shows that middle actors can affect change in several different directions: upstream, downstream and sideways. By linking the top and bottom more explicitly, this approach is both an alternative and complementary to ‘bottom-up’ and ‘top-down’ efforts to implementing low-carbon innovations and practices in society. One particular kind of ‘middle’ in the built environment is explored: the role of building professionals to encourage (or discourage) societal change. Focusing on the demand side of the energy system, case studies of building professionals in the domestic and non-domestic sectors are used to emphasize the qualities of these middle agents as enablers/disablers, mediators and aggregators. Policy implications from the ‘middle-out’ perspective are drawn, and comments on the near and long-term relationship between building professions and building performance are made.

One of the many barriers to the incorporation of local and community actors in emerging energy governance structures and policy delivery mechanisms is the lack of thorough understanding of how they work in practice, and how best to support and develop effective local energy governance. Taking a meso-level perspective and a network approach to governance, this paper sheds some new light on this issue, by focusing on the relation, channels of communication and interactions between low carbon community groups (LCCGs) and other actors. Based on data gathered from LCCGs in Oxfordshire, UK, via network survey and interviews the research maps the relations in terms of the exchanges of information and financial support, and presents a relation-based structure of local energy governance. Analysis reveals the intensity of energy related information exchanges that is taking place at the county level and highlights the centrality of intermediary organization in facilitating information flow. The analysis also identifies actors that are not very dominant in their amount of exchanges, but fill ‘weak-tie’ functions between otherwise disconnected LCCGs or other actors in the network. As an analytical tool the analysis could be useful for various state and non-state actors that want to better understand and support – financially and otherwise – actors that enable energy related local action.

To make robust judgments of an energy efficiency programme's economic effectiveness, we need to know how much energy and CO₂ is actually being saved through the financial support it provides. But most evaluations of home retrofit energy efficiency programmes depend on calculated, rather than measured, levels of energy consumption. This fails to take into account the discrepancies that have been observed in practice, between calculated and actual energy consumption both before and after refurbishment. Evaluations of energy efficiency programmes ideally need to consider rebound effects, free rider effects, reduced savings due to insufficient technical quality, and discrepancies between actual and calculated pre-refurbishment energy consumption. This paper investigates and compares evaluations of two prominent energy efficiency programmes in the Germany and UK–theCO₂-Building Rehabilitation Programme and the Supplier Obligation. We show that evaluations of the Supplier Obligation explicitly address most of the reduction effects whereas this is not the case for the CO₂-Building Rehabilitation Programme.

The aim is to understand how private car drivers’ perception of vehicle attributes may affect their intention to adopt electric vehicles (EVs). Data are obtained from a national online survey of potential EV adopters in the UK. The results indicate that instrumental attributes are important largely because they are associated with other attributes derived from owning and using EVs, including pleasure of driving (hedonic attributes) and identity derived from owning and using EVs (symbolic attributes). People who believe that a pro-environmental self-identity fits with their self-image are more likely to have positive perceptions of EV attributes. Perceptions of EV attributes are only very weakly associated with car-authority identity.

Energy saving feed-in tariffs (ESFITs) are a relatively new concept and are designed to use the same principles as Feed in Tariffs for renewable energy (REFITs). They offer a promising way of improving electricity efficiency and reducing electricity demand, thereby decreasing carbon emissions.

The Electricity Market Reform proposals which form part of the 2012 Energy Bill provide a bias towards investment in new supply that could be addressed using ESFITs. 

In the context of EMR, ESFITs offer a means of delivering decarbonisation with a lower impact on consumer bills.

Because ESFITs do not rely on energy companies, they would provide incentives for innovation in project delivery in a much wider range of actors including householders, community groups, local authorities and small businesses.

The concept of ESFITs is simple, but there are policy design issues that still need to be addressed.

This report summarises the findings, revealing why homeowners renovate and why they decide to improve their home energy efficiency.

This research helps explain why homeowners decide on energy efficiency renovations, and why they are even thinking about renovations in the first

Nuclear Disaster at Fukushima Daiichi is a timely and groundbreaking account of the disturbing landscape of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear meltdown amidst an earthquake and tsunami on Japan's northeast coastline on March 11, 2011. It provides riveting insights into the social and political landscape of nuclear power development in Japan, which significantly contributed to the disaster; the flawed disaster management options taken; and the political, technical, and social reactions as the accident unfolded. In doing so, it critically reflects on the implications for managing future nuclear disasters, for effective and responsible regulation and good governance of controversial science and technology, or technoscience, and for the future of nuclear power itself, both in Japan and internationally.

This document sets out the response of the UK Energy Research Centre (UKERC) to the Energy and Climate Change Committee’s Inquiry on Heat.

We would always encourage a “whole systems approach” to energy, certainly including heat with electricity, and ideally transport as well. Such an approach is more likely to encourage consistency between sectors, avoiding perverse incentives but also it is more likely to lead to the discovery of optimal solutions.

In the call for evidence, the Committee makes the comment that there is disagreement concerning the un-used heat from thermal electricity generation with some arguing that this should be used through combined heat and power (CHP) systems, while others suggest optimal energy efficiency occurs through centralised electricity generation plus heat pumps at the local level.

Heat exhausted from large thermal generators has very little use as most of the useful energy has been extracted to produce electricity. A typical temperature of the “exhausted heat” is around 30°C which is too low for district heating systems. This requires heat to be extracted at a higher temperature, circa 90°C, but this does result in lower electricity output from the thermal generators. Typically, 7 units of heat generated by a CHP unit will result in the reduction of 1 unit of electricity output. This contrasts with air source heat pumps where the ratio is 1 unit of electricity to 3 units of heat (typically).

Hence CHP is much more energy efficient but of course district heating system infrastructure is required. Opponents of CHP systems cite this as the major stumbling block but they ignore the electricity infrastructure cost, mainly distribution but also transmission and generation that would be required for heat pumps. They also ignore the customer based cost of the heat pumps, upgrades to home heating systems, etc. Once these costs are all included the economics for CHP are much improved.

A further point to make is that heat provided by CHP will have the lowest carbon emissions compared to other fossil fuel-based heat generation. For example, using typical values, a condensing gas boiler emits circa 210 g/kWht 1 and an electric heat pump circa 120g/kWht 2 . However, for a CHP it is circa 60g/kWht 3

Thus our overall opinion is that CHP (electricity and heat production) and district heating (which encompasses all forms of heat production as well as heat network and other associated infrastructure) do not receive the attention they deserve.

A Monte Carlo model of the combined GB gas and electricity network was developed to determine the reliability of the energy infrastructure. The model integrates the gas and electricity network into a single sequential Monte Carlo simulation. The model minimises the combined costs of the gas and electricity network, these include gas supplies, gas storage operation and electricity generation. The Monte Carlo model calculates reliability indices such as loss of load probability and expected energy unserved for the combined gas and electricity network. The intention of this tool is to facilitate reliability analysis of integrated energy systems. Applications of this tool are demonstrated through a case study that quantifies the impact on the reliability of the GB gas and electricity network given uncertainties such as wind variability, gas supply availability and outages to energy infrastructure assets. Analysis is performed over a typical midwinter week on a hypothesised GB gas and electricity network in 2020 that meets European renewable energy targets. The efficacy of doubling GB gas storage capacity on the reliability of the energy system is assessed. The results highlight the value of greater gas storage facilities in enhancing the reliability of the GB energy system given various energy uncertainties.

An approach for minimisation of the capital costs and energy consumption in a district heating network is presented using a case study based on a district heating network in South Wales, UK. A number of different design cases were simulated using the PSS SINCAL, taking into account different supply and return temperatures and target pressure losses. The operation of the district heating network was synthesised under different design cases using four district heating operating strategies. Optimisation was conducted to obtain the optimal flow rate and supply temperature for the variable flow and variable supply temperature operating strategy. The optimisation model was formulated using the FICO™ Xpress optimisation suite. The objective of optimisation was to minimise the annual total energy consumption and costs. Using each operating strategy, the annual pump energy consumption,heat losses and the equivalent annual cost were found and compared. A variable flow and variable supply temperature operating strategy was found to be beneficial in all cases. Design cases with minimum annual total energy consumption and cost used small pipe diameters and large pressure drops. Further, by increasing temperature difference between supply and return pipes, the annual total energy consumption and the equivalent annual cost were reduced.

Current policy debates and energy scenarios for the UK highlight the different possible ways of transforming the energy system in order to meet long-term national policy goals, including those of building a low carbon economy, achieving energy security and affordability, and mitigating environmental impacts. Although there has been much previous research on what publics think about specific ways of producing or consuming energy, we know far less about public perceptions, attitudes and values when elicited in relation to whole energy system change as an interconnected set of transformations in the systems of supply, demand, infrastructure and human behaviour.

Greater understanding of public acceptability of whole energy system change will present both opportunities, and also highlight challenges, for the delivery of UK energy policy and transitions. The research had three empirical phases: interviews with key stakeholders, a series of six in-depth deliberative workshops held with publics in England, Scotland and Wales, and a nationally representative survey (Great Britain, n=2,441). This report represents a synthesis of key findings drawn from the two core datasets relating to public perceptions and preferences i.e. the workshops and the survey.

The analysis provides an indication of key areas of public acceptability relating to whole energy system change, and offers insights into the factors that mediate and underpin views on transitions. Understanding the connections, associations and contextual issues that underlay public perspectives offers an important means for thinking through potential difficulties and opportunities in achieving major system change.

This report is structured around ten cross-cutting analytic themes which are interlinked.

The work by Poortinga and colleagues (2013) has shown that British and Japanese publics have responded very differently to the Fukushima accident. However, the surveys included in the analyses were not specifically designed to examine the impacts of the Fukushima accident and contained different sets of questions. Comparisons could therefore only be made on a small number of items.

This new survey builds upon the previous work conducted by the authors of the study (Poortinga et al., 2006; Spence et al., 2010; Aoyagi et al., 2011; Demski et al., 2013) and examines British attitudes to nuclear power and climate change two years after the Fukushima accident. The British survey was coordinated with a similar survey in Japan allowing a detailed cross-national comparison of the long-term impacts of the Fukushima accident on public attitudes to nuclear power and climate change. TheJapanese survey was conducted in February 2013 (Aoyagi, 2013).

This report describes the main findings of the British survey conducted in March 2013. The results are contrasted with previous British surveys where possible (i.e. Poortinga et al., 2006; Spence et al., 2010; Demski et al., 2013). Technical details of the previous surveys are provided in Box A. In the longer term, the data will be used for more detailed statistical analyses and cross-national comparisons with Japan.

This is the first handbook to provide a global policy perspective on energy, bringing together a diverse range of international energy issues in one volume.

• Maps the emerging field of global energy policy both for scholars and practitioners; the focus is on global issues, but it also explores the regional impact of international energy policies
• Accounts for the multi-faceted nature of global energy policy challenges and broadens discussions of these beyond the prevalent debates about oil supply
• Analyzes global energy policy challenges across the dimensions of markets, development, sustainability, and security, and identifies key global policy challenges for the future
• Comprises newly-commissioned research by an international team of scholars and energy policy practitioners

Low carbon scenario and transition pathway analysis involves the consideration of uncertainties around future technological and social changes. This paper argues that uncertainty can be better understood, and the strategic and policy effectiveness of scenarios or pathways thereby improved, through a systematic categorisation of the different kinds of certain and uncertain elements of which the future is comprised. To achieve this, this paper makes two novel methodological contributions. First it proposes a system conceptualisation which is based on a detailed description of the dynamics of the actors and institutions relevant to the system under study, iteratively linked to a detailed representation of the technological system. Second, it argues that as a result of developing this actor-based low carbon scenarios approach it is possible to characterise future elements of the system as either pre-determined, actor contingent or non-actor contingent. An outline scenario approach is presented, based on these two contributions. It emerges that the different categories of future element are associated with different types of uncertainty and each prompt different strategic policy responses. This categorisation of future elements therefore clarifies the relationship of scenario content to specific types of policy response, and thus improves the policy tractability of resulting scenarios.

How does financial performance risk affect investments in low-carbon electricity-generating technologies to achieve climate policy targets? A detailed risk simulation of price formation in the Great Britain wholesale power market is used to show that the increasing replacement of fossil facilities with wind, ceteris paribus, may cause a deterioration of the financial risk–return performance metrics for incremental investments. Low-carbon investments appear to be high risk, low return, and as such may require a progressively higher level of support over time than envisaged by the conventional degression trajectories. The increasing riskiness of the wholesale market will to some extent offset the benefits of lower capital costs and operational efficiencies if investors need to satisfy cautious debt coverage ratios alongside positive expected returns. This increasedrisk is additional to the well-known ‘merit order effect’ of low-carbon investments progressively depressing wholesale prices and hence their expected investment returns.

Policy relevance

Policy support for renewable technologies such as wind is usually based upon levelized costs and is expected to reduce over time as capital costs and operational efficiencies improve. However, levelized costs do not take full account of the risk aversion that investors may have in practice. Expected policy support reductions may be moderated to some extent by the increased financial performance risk that intermittent technologies bring to the power market. The annual risk-return profiles for incremental investments deteriorate for all technologies as wind replaces fossil fuels. This extra risk premium will need to be incorporated into evaluating policy incentives for new investments in a decarbonizing power market.

This briefing draws out the key messages from the UKERC report The UK Energy System in 2050: comparing low-carbon resilient scenarios, – which describes and compares a series of model runs, implemented through the UK MARKAL modelling system, which was developed through UKERC with funding from the Research Councils’ Energy Programme. This has revealed some consistent patterns showing how the UK energy system might develop in future, which are discussed in detail in the full report.

Phase 1 of the UK Energy Research Centre (UKERC) facilitated the development of a state-of-the-art MARKAL model of the UK energy system. MARKAL is a well established linear optimisation, energy system model, developed by the Energy Technology Systems Analysis Programme (ETSAP) of the International Energy Agency (IEA) in the 1970s, and was until very recently used by it for its annual Energy Technology Perspectives (ETP) reports. It is also used by many other research teams round the world, and has been regularly updated and improved over the years through the ETSAP Implementing Agreement.

Towards the end of UKERC’s Phase 1, in 2007-8, UK MARKAL was used for a major modelling exercise of different projections of the UK energy system to 2050, the results of which were published in Skea at al 2011. In the ensuing years, UK MARKAL was again used for major 2050-focused modelling projects: for the Committee on Climate Change (CCC) in 2010 (CCC 2010), for the Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) in 2011 (HMG 2011), and again for UKERC to update the Energy 2050 scenarios in 2012. This UKERC Research Report presents the main results of each of these modelling exercises, with a view to drawing out any key messages from the set as a whole.

Comparisons between such model runs, even of the same model, need to be drawn with care. Various assumptions, including cost and other data inputs to the model, were changed between the model runs, to reflect policy and other developments, and to incorporate new information. Some of the technology representations in the model were also improved. These changes have two implications for comparisons between such model runs. The first is that detailed conclusions about the cost-preferability of particular technologies, unless they emerge as clear favourites across the whole set of runs, are unlikely to be robust. This is because the cost uncertainties of possible developments in these technologies and their competitors over four decades are very great. Where, as will be seen in these cases, the costs between the major low-carbon technologies are, or may be, of the same order of magnitude, then there are no strong grounds on the basis of these runs of preferring one over the others on cost grounds.

The second conclusion is more positive. Where consistent patterns of development of the energy system emerge across the different runs, despite the different inputs and the fact that the runs were carried out by different modellers and modelling teams, then more confidence may be placed in these patterns as likely features of the future UK energy system under the constraints applied, theprincipal constraint being reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, or carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in the case of the UK energy system, according to the provisions of the UK Climate Change Act of 2008. It is these consistent patterns that inform the main conclusions of this report, which are summarised here under a number of headings. The numbers on which these broad conclusions are based appear in the main report.

This book is a primer on multi-regional input-output (MRIO) analysis. It has been written by the world's leading experts on MRIO. It provides descriptions of seven major MRIO tools as well as case studies illustrating their application. It includes chapters on the role of MRIO analysis in global governance showing how the power and elegance of MRIO can bring new dimensions to policy making.

Biomass produced from perennial energy crops is expected to contribute to UK renewable energy targets, reducing the carbon intensity of energy production. The UK government has had incentive policies in place targeting both farmers and power plant investors to develop this market, but growth has been slower than anticipated. Market expansion requires the interaction of farmers growing these crops, with the construction of biomass power plants or other facilities to consume them. This study uses an agentbased model to investigate behaviour of the UK energy crop market and examines the cost of emission abatement that the market might provide. The model is run for various policy scenarios attempting to answer the following questions: Do existing policies for perennial energy crops provide a costeffective mechanism in stimulating the market to achieve emissions abatement? What arethe relative benefits of providing incentives to farmers or energy producers? What are the tradeoffs between increased or decreased subsidy levels and the rate and level of market uptake, and hence carbon abatement? The results suggest that maintaining the energy crop scheme, which provides farmers' establishment grants, can increase both the emissions abatement potential and costeffectiveness. A minimum carbon equivalent abatement cost is seen at intermediate subsidy levels for energy generation. This suggests that there is an optimum level that costeffectively stimulates the market to achieve emissions reduction.

As offshore windfarm (OWF) construction in the UK is progressing rapidly, monitoring of the economic and ecological effects of these developments is urgently needed. This is to enable both spatial planning and where necessary mitigation in an increasingly crowded marine environment. One approach to mitigation is co-location of OWFs and marine protected areas (MPAs). This systematic review has the objective to inform this co-location proposal and identify areas requiring further research. A limited number of studies addressing marine renewable energy structures and related artificial structures in coastal waters were found. The results of these studies display a change in species assemblages at artificial structures in comparison to naturally occurring habitats. An increase in hard substrata associated species, especially benthic bivalves, crustaceans and reef associated fish and a decrease in algae abundance were the dominant trends. Assemblages associated with complex concrete structures revealed greater similarity to natural hard substrata compared to those around steel structures. To consider marine renewable energy sites, especially large scale OWFs as MPAs, the dissimilar nature of assemblages on the structures themselves to natural communities should be considered. However positive effects were recorded on the abundance of commercially important crustacean species. This suggests potential for incorporation of OWFs as no fishing, or restricted activity zones within a wider MPA to aid fisheries augmentation. The limited available evidence highlights a requirement for significant further research involving long term monitoring at a variety of sites to better inform management options.

Process and empiricalbased models that describe lignocellulosic biomass yield of the perennial energy grass Miscanthus (MiscanFor^©), short rotation coppice (SRC) trees and shrubs, poplar and willow (ForestGrowthSRC) and a number of short rotation forest trees (ESCCARBINE), were used to estimate the yield potential for current and future climates across Great Britain (GB). In current climates, modelled yields for all feedstock crops varied between 8.1 and 10.6 Mg dry weight (DW) ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ with willow SRC and poplar SRF producing the lowest and highest yields respectively. For the medium emissions scenario (UKCP09) in 2050, mean yield for all feedstock crops varied between 7.6 and 12.7 Mg DW ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ with willow SRC and poplar SRF once again thelowest and the highest recorded yields. There were clear geographical trends within GB. Miscanthusyield was higher than all others in the southwest (13.1 Mg DW ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹), SRC willow and SRC poplar in the northwest (12.1–15.8 Mg DW ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹) and in the midlands and southeast, SRF poplar was the highest yielding (10.5–11.6 Mg DW ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹). These geographical trends changed little with climate out to 2050, with mean yield of each ‘best feedstock’ increasing from 12.7 to 14.2 Mg DW ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹. Out to 2050, SRC declined slightly and Miscanthus and SRF poplar increased as the ‘best feedstock’ option. Except for a few localized examples, only SRF poplar had a higher yield than SRC or Miscanthus. These data suggest that in current and future climates, lignocellulosic biomass plantation species can be selected and optimized for best yield performance in different regions of GB. This modelling framework provides a valuable startingpoint for which to test the performance of new genetic material, as this becomes available and parameterized for the models and socioeconomic scenarios that may impact on the bioenergy industry.

This paper defines the potentially available land for perennial energy crops across Great Britain as the first component of a broader appraisal undertaken by the ‘Spatial Modelling of Bioenergy in Great Britain to 2050’ project. Combining data on seven primary constraints in a GIS reduced the available area to just over 9 M ha (40% of GB). Adding other restrictions based on land cover naturalness scores to represent landscape considerations resulted in a final area of 8.5 M ha (37% of GB). This distribution was compared with the locations of Miscanthus and SRC willow established under the English Energy Crop Scheme during 2001–2011 and it was found that 83% of the planting fell within the defined available land. Such a correspondence provides confidence that the factors considered in the analysis were broadly consistent with previous planting decisions.

This paper presents an analysis of the spatial supply and demand relationships for biomass energy potential for England, using Geographical Information System (GIS) mapping techniques. Due to energy use and cost of biomass feedstock transportation, the spatial relationship between potential supply and demand is crucial to efficient usage of this distributed feedstock. Previous studies have identified potential for biomass generation at individual sites, according to local factors dictating viable transport distances and costs. The research presented here necessarily takes a more generalised approach, to allow national scale assessment of capability to meet fixed location demands, and quantify theoretical potential generation under relevant scenarios. The approach is illustrated for England, although techniques are applicable elsewhere when suitable data are available.

Mappingfor England indicates that of the 2,521,996 ha viable for cultivation of Miscanthus, 1,998,435 ha are within 25 km of the identified potential end uses of feedstock, and 2,409,541 ha are within 40 km. Potential generation exceeds the 2020 UK biomass generation target of 259 PJ, whichever radius is applied. However, predictions assume Miscanthus cultivation at all appropriate sites, and no policy interventions to limit transport distance.

Results from national scale analysis may be useful in informing government decisions, for example to identify impacts on total generation potential of incentives affecting decisions on allocation of overlap feedstock. Variation in GHG balance and environmental impacts between cultivation sites creates spatial variation in benefits of bioenergy, which should be taken into account inaddition to the spatial relationship between supply and demand.

This briefing note provides a short introduction to the application of the ecosystem services approach in enabling the sustainable transformation to a low-carbon energy system.

Energy efficiency improvements by households lead to rebound effects that offset the potential energy and emissions savings. Direct rebound effects result from increased demand for cheaper energy services, while indirect rebound effects result from increased demand for other goods and services that also require energy to provide. Research to date has focused upon the former, but both are important for climate change. This study estimates the combined direct and indirect rebound effects from seven measures that improve the energy efficiency of UK dwellings. The methodology is based upon estimates of the income elasticity and greenhouse gas (GHG) intensity of 16 categories of household goods and services, and allows for the embodied emissions of the energy efficiency measures themselves, as well as the capital cost of the measures. Rebound effects are measured in GHG terms and relate to the adoption of these measures by an average UK household. The study finds that the rebound effects from these measures are typically in the range 5–15% and arise mostly from indirect effects. This is largely because expenditure on gas and electricity is more GHG-intensive than expenditure on other goods and services. However, the anticipated shift towards a low carbon electricity system in the UK may lead to much larger rebound effects.

It is increasingly claimed that the world is entering a ‘golden age of gas’, with the exploitation of unconventional resources expected to transform gas markets around the world. But the future development of these resources is subject to multiple uncertainties, particularly with regard to the size and recoverability of the physical resource. This paper assesses the currently available evidence on the size of unconventional gas resources at both the regional and global level. Focussing in particular on shale gas, it first explores the meaning and appropriate interpretation of the various terms and definitions used in resource estimation and then summarises and compares the different regional and global estimates that have been produced to date. It shows how these estimates have increased over time and highlights their variability, the wide range of uncertainty and the inadequate treatment of this uncertainty by most studies. The paper also addresses coal bed methane and tight gas and identifies those estimates that appear to be most robust for each region. The paper concludes that unconventional gas could represent 40% of the remaining technically recoverable resource of natural gas, but the level of uncertainty is extremely high and the economically recoverable resource could be substantially smaller.

This report considers the role and importance of electricity cost estimates and the methodologies employed to forecast future costs. It examines the conceptual and empirical basis for the expectation that costs will reduce over time, explains the main cost forecasting methodologies, and analyses their strengths, limitations and difficulties. It considers six case study technologies in order to derive both technology specific and generic conclusions about the tools and techniques used to project future electricity generation costs.

The Paper considers first demand for indium and tellurium from the PV industry, now and in future. Whilst a range of scenarios exist for the role of PV in the global energy mix there is considerable agreement that the share of PV per se and thin film devices in particular is expected to expand considerably in the light of carbon abatement goals.

The paper then considers the supply of indium and tellurium. It provides a detailed review of the processes used to extract and refine them, and discusses the issues associated with producing these secondary metals which are extracted as trace elements during the production of primary metals such as zinc and copper. The Paper finds that there are considerable complexities associated with reported reserves and an absence of meaningful data on resources. Again, existing estimates of availability for the PV market are reviewed. This alsoreveals considerable variation within the literature and the use of a wide a range of assumptions upon which to base resource availability.

The paper concludes that there is no immediate cause for concern about availability of either indium or tellurium. PV occupies a small fraction of current markets and there is evidence of considerable potential to increase the extraction of both metals because a sizeable proportion of the material potentially available from primary metal extraction is not currently utilised. Moreover, there is potential to increase recycling of products containing indium or tellurium, for example from flat screens. However, the scale of the roll out of PV ~ vi ~ envisaged in some scenarios could imply a large expansion in the demand for indium and tellurium. There is no reason to believe that this is not feasible, however adequate data on reserves and resources do not exist. Resource estimates are not available and simplistic assumptions such as using current production or crustal abundance to estimate potential supply cannot provide any meaningful insight into future production. A scenario approach that links production to primary metals is appropriate. We conclude that considerable further research is needed to characterise indium and tellurium resources and the economic feasibility of expanding production.

Policy makers and industry are increasingly concerned over the availability of certain materials key to the manufacture of low carbon technologies. The literature addressing this topic includes reports termed ‘criticality assessment’ that aim to quantify the relative criticality of a range of materials. In this study we examine the methodologies underpinning these criticality assessments, and attempt to normalise and compare their results. This process identified a list of 10 metals or metal groups for which average normalised scores are presented, along with maximum and minimum scores to indicate the range of uncertainty. We find that criticality assessment methodologies diverge significantly, making comparison difficult. This leads to apparently wide uncertainty in results. We also find that in order to achieve comparability within studies, authors typically rely on simple metrics for which data is available for all metals considered. This leads to some compromises which affect results. Finally we suggest that, given these uncertainties and methodological difficulties, criticality assessments are best used to highlight materials or technologies of particular interest, which should then be further examined in isolation, to improve insight and accuracy.

This response is largely based on research carried out within the UKERC project: The Geopolitical Economy of Global Gas Security and Governance: Implications for the UK. It also draws on UKERC’s energy system modeling research which has explored the changes that are necessary to meet the UK’s climate change targets.

This UKERC Research Atlas Landscape provides an overview of the competencies and publicly funded activities in hydropower research, development and demonstration (RD&D) in the UK. It covers the main funding streams, research providers, infrastructure, networks and UK participation in international activities.

UKERC ENERGY RESEARCH LANDSCAPE: HYDROPOWER

• Section 1: An overview which includes a broad characterisation of research activity in the sector and the key research challenges
• Section 2: An assessment of UK capabilities in relation to wider international activities, in the context of market potential
• Section 3: Major funding streams and providers of basic research along with a brief commentary
• Section 4: Major funding streams and providers of applied research along with a brief commentary
• Section 5: Major funding streams for demonstration activity along with major projects and a brief commentary
• Section 6: Research infrastructure and other major research assets (e.g. databases, models)
• Section 7: Research networks, mainly in the UK, but also European networks not covered by the EU Framework Research and Technology Development (RTD) Programmes
• Section 8: UK participation in energy-related EU Framework Research and Technology Development (RTD) Programmes
• Section 9: UK participation in wider international initiatives, including those supported by the International Energy Agency

This UKERC Research Atlas Landscape provides an overview of the competencies and publicly funded activities in hydrogen research, development and demonstration (RD&D) in the UK. It covers the main funding streams, research providers, infrastructure, networks and UK participation in international activities.

UKERC ENERGY RESEARCH LANDSCAPE: HYDROGEN

• Section 1: An overview which includes a broad characterisation of research activity in the sector and the key research challenges
• Section 2: An assessment of UK capabilities in relation to wider international activities, in the context of market potential
• Section 3: Major funding streams and providers of basic research along with a brief commentary
• Section 4: Major funding streams and providers of applied research along with a brief commentary
• Section 5: Major funding streams for demonstration activity along with major projects and a brief commentary
• Section 6: Research infrastructure and other major research assets (e.g. databases, models)
• Section 7: Research networks, mainly in the UK, but also European networks not covered by the EU Framework Research and Technology Development (RTD) Programmes
• Section 8: UK participation in energy-related EU Framework Research and Technology Development (RTD) Programmes
• Section 9: UK participation in wider international initiatives, including those supported by the International Energy Agency

This UKERC Research Atlas Landscape provides an overview of the competencies and publicly funded activities in wind energy research, development and demonstration (RD&D) in the UK. It covers the main funding streams, research providers, infrastructure, networks and UK participation in international activities.

UKERC ENERGY RESEARCH LANDSCAPE: WIND ENERGY

• Section 1: An overview which includes a broad characterisation of research activity in the sector and the key research challenges
• Section 2: An assessment of UK capabilities in relation to wider international activities, in the context of market potential
• Section 3: Major funding streams and providers of basic research along with a brief commentary
• Section 4: Major funding streams and providers of applied research along with a brief commentary
• Section 5: Major fundingstreams for demonstration activity along with major projects and a brief commentary
• Section 6: Research infrastructure and other major research assets (e.g. databases, models)
• Section 7: Research networks, mainly in the UK, but also European networks not covered by the EU Framework Research and Technology Development (RTD) Programmes
• Section 8: UK participation in energy-related EU Framework Research and Technology Development (RTD) Programmes
• Section 9: UK participation in wider international initiatives, including those supported by the International Energy Agency

This UKERC Research Atlas Landscape provides an overview of the competencies and publicly funded activities in nuclear fission research, development and demonstration (RD&D) in the UK. It covers the main funding streams, research providers, infrastructure, networks and UK participation in international activities.

UKERC ENERGY RESEARCH LANDSCAPE: NUCLEAR FISSION

• Section 1: An overview which includes a broad characterisation of research activity in the sector and the key research challenges
• Section 2: An assessment of UK capabilities in relation to wider international activities, in the context of market potential
• Section 3: Major funding streams and providers of basic research along with a brief commentary
• Section 4: Major funding streams and providers of applied research along with a brief commentary
• Section 5: Major funding streams for demonstration activity along with major projects and a brief commentary
• Section 6: Research infrastructure and other major research assets (e.g. databases, models)
• Section 7: Research networks, mainly in the UK, but also European networks not covered by the EU Framework Research and Technology Development (RTD) Programmes
• Section 8: UK participation in energy-related EU Framework Research and Technology Development (RTD) Programmes
• Section 9: UK participation in wider international initiatives, including those supported by the International Energy Agency

This UKERC Research Atlas Landscape provides an overview of the competencies and publicly funded activities in energy storage research, development and demonstration (RD&D) in the UK. It covers the main funding streams, research providers, infrastructure, networks and UK participation in international activities.

UKERC ENERGY RESEARCH LANDSCAPE: ENERGY STORAGE

• Section 1: An overview which includes a broad characterisation of research activity in the sector and the key research challenges
• Section 2: An assessment of UK capabilities in relation to wider international activities, in the context of market potential
• Section 3: Major funding streams and providers of basic research along with a brief commentary
• Section 4: Major funding streams and providers of applied research along with a brief commentary
• Section 5: Major funding streams for demonstration activity along with major projects and a brief commentary
• Section 6: Research infrastructure and other major research assets (e.g. databases, models)
• Section 7: Research networks, mainly in the UK, but also European networks not covered by the EU Framework Research and Technology Development (RTD) Programmes
• Section 8: UK participation in energy-related EU Framework Research and Technology Development (RTD) Programmes
• Section 9: UK participation in wider international initiatives, including those supported by the International Energy Agency