Customer Demand Profiling for Hydrogen Networks

Completed

Other Cross-Cutting Technologies or Research(Energy Models)
Other Cross-Cutting Technologies or Research(Energy system analysis)
Fossil Fuels: Oil Gas and Coal(Oil and Gas, Refining, transport and storage of oil and gas)

Applied Research and Development

SOCIAL SCIENCES (Economics and Econometrics)

Not Cross-cutting

Project Contact
Cadent Gas

Network Innovation Allowance

Ofgem

01 January 2024

30 April 2024

ENA months

£75,000

Energy

London

Network Innovation Allowance

Project Contact, Cadent Gas

Project Contact, Cadent Eastern
Project Contact, Cadent North London
Project Contact, Cadent West Midlands
Project Contact, Cadent North West

The project should be split into 3 parts.Part 1. Investigate the different methodologies used in customer demand profiling (e.g. algorithmic, Nominations etc)Part 2. Assess the levels of accuracy in each method, balanced with the need for reactivity and currency (e.g. risks of not having enough versus commercial loss).Part 3. Report on the various tools and recommended methods and associated ROM costs. Inaccurate forecasting of demand may lead to system imbalances. This carries a number of risks, some of which are highlighted below.Risk 1. A safely balanced network, operating within defined parameters (e.g. pressure, temperature) will undergo less stress/fatigue than a network that is cycled over wider parameters. This will lead to less faults/failures and potential outages which, in turn, reduces the costs of operating the pipeline as maintenance should be reduced. Reduced cycling will also extend the life of the assets.Increased cycling through imbalance will increase the stress/fatigue and in turn increase the associated costs of safely maintaining the pipeline.Risk 2. An imbalanced pipeline may result in customer demand having to be curtailed/isolated, or additional supply sought, potentially at short notice. These short notice changes may carry financial penalties. However, the primary risk is reputational as Cadent aim to ensure security of supply to all its customers.Risk 3. Cadent is expected to be operating under a Code similar to the UNC (Uniform Network Code). This will include a balancing period for energy tracking. Imbalance in the Network will cause complexities in allocation and closing out that balancing period. Again, this may result in financial penalties but will result in reputational damage. · Identify different methods of forecasting customer demand.· Assess accuracy, speed, reactivity, and currency.· Report on findings and recommendations.

By analysing global methods of demand forecasting in various industries (e.g, Utilities, NHS, Finance, fuel), this project aims to explore the optimum way to obtain and manage consumer demands and the optimum time period to gather those demands over (e.g. daily demand, 4hr demand etc)The project will look at customer demand profiling for both on the day and ahead of the day change management.It will also explore long term forecasting of up to 10 years.

02/10/24