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Reference Number NIA2_NGESO0011
Title Optimal Outage Planning System
Status Started
Energy Categories OTHER POWER and STORAGE TECHNOLOGIES(Electricity transmission and distribution) 80%;
OTHER CROSS-CUTTING TECHNOLOGIES or RESEARCH(Energy system analysis) 20%;
Research Types Applied Research and Development 100%
Science and Technology Fields ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY (Electrical and Electronic Engineering) 100%
UKERC Cross Cutting Characterisation Systems Analysis related to energy R&D (Other Systems Analysis) 80%;
Systems Analysis related to energy R&D (Energy modelling) 20%;
Principal Investigator Project Contact
No email address given
National Grid ESO
Award Type Network Innovation Allowance
Funding Source Ofgem
Start Date 01 December 2021
End Date 31 July 2023
Duration ENA months
Total Grant Value £3,580,000
Industrial Sectors Power
Region London
Programme Network Innovation Allowance
 
Investigators Principal Investigator Project Contact , National Grid ESO (100.000%)
  Industrial Collaborator Project Contact , National Grid plc (0.000%)
Web Site https://smarter.energynetworks.org/projects/NIA2_NGESO0011
Objectives The project is structured in two phases split over 22 months. The first phase of work lasts 12 months and will focus on building the first version of the outage planning tool. This tool consists of four optimization models: a model of the underlying electricity network, a decision model to integrate outages in the plan, a recovery model to handle disruptions, and a risk-to-the-system model to assess the impact of outages on security and stability. The second phase of work uses the remaining 10 months to focus on refining each of the models to better support the Network Access Planning (NAP) operations.WP 0: Developing a first version of the network modelIn this WP, a first version of the underlying network model is developed. It will be able to perform simplified optimal power flow computations on the chosen network model. At the end of this WP, the code will be set up in such a way that we are able to adjust the level of detail of the model in the later phase of the project.WP 1: Developing a first version of the decision modelDeliverable: Prototype for testing by NAP staffIn parallel with the first version of the network model, the decision model will be developed. At the end of this WP, the decision model can propose whether and when to add a single outage to the current plan and is ready to be tested by NAP. The decision model can propose whether and when to add a single outage to the current plan and is ready to be tested by NAP.WP 2: Developing a first version of the recovery modelDeliverable: Prototype for testing by NAP staffNetwork Access Planning (NAP) and the University of Edinburgh (UoE) will explore and agree upon the possible recovery actions that the tool can propose, and the decision criteria by which the tool values different options (such as cost). At the end of this work package, the recovery model can propose a recovery action taken from an agreed upon set of actions for asingle given delayed outage.WP 3: Developing a first version of the risk-to-the-system modelDeliverable: Prototype for testing by NAP staffNAP and UoE will explore and agree upon the criteria that are used to determine the risk of the system. At the end of the work package, the risk-to-the-system model can output performance criteria that allow to quantify the risk to the system for one single outage. It is ready to be tested by NAP.WP 4: Developing a refined cost estimation and duration estimation modelDeliverable: Prototypes of the models that can be used by the main modelsWe will refine the cost estimation model used in the decision model and the recovery model. We will also work on the duration estimation model to later consider predicted delays in outages. At the end of the work package, prototypes of these models can be integrated into the other models.WP 5: Refining the decision modelDeliverable: Refined prototypeWe will refine the decision model after testing by NAP. After a meeting to discuss the test results and to agree on the changes and improvements that are necessary and realistic, we will implement them. This WP also contains the work of integrating the results of WP 4.At the end of this work package NAP can work with a refined prototype.WP 6: Refining the recovery modelDeliverable: Refined prototypeBuilding on WP 2 we will refine the recovery model after testing by NAP. This work package also contains the work of integrating the results of WP 4.At the end of this work package NAP can work with a refined prototype.WP 7: Refining therisk-to-the-system modelDeliverable: Refined prototypeWe will refine the risk-to-the-system model after testing by NAP. This work package also contains the work of integrating the results of WP 4.At the end of this work package NAP can work with a refined prototype.Risk Assessment In line with the ENAs ENIP document section 3.2, the risk rating is mostly scored Low (Score 1). TRL Steps = Score 1 (one TRL step from 2 to 3) Cost = Score 1 (£385,000) Suppliers = Score 1 (one supplier contracted) Data Assumption = Score 2 (scope known but will be refined during the project and appropriate standards and guidance will be identified during the project)  The outage planning process at National Grid ESO involves collecting information from multiple systems and using it to make decisions on system access (who can do what, where and when). These planning decisions balance costs and system risks which are affected by unexpected changes due to various factors, both internal (e.g. conflicting or changing operational requirements) and external (e.g. changes to work specifications, faults).An outage is considered as a period of time when a piece (or group) of equipment is offline for access for maintenance or construction work. Outage characteristics to be considered include:start/end datesequipment affectedemergency return to service timesindication of TransmissionOperator significance of the outageOutages must be planned in accordance with the SQSS (Security and Quality of Supply Standards) which sets a limit for compliance. Beyond this the ESO considers system risks and consumer benefit. Initially outages on the National ET Systemup to the distribution boundary (LV substation of interface sites) will be considered. The outages will be on transmission circuits, supergrid transformers and busbars. Some consideration may be required to related outages within the Distribution Network.This project will provide added value by providing a solution to the imperative need for better integration of risk estimation into the planning optimization so that the amount of work remains manageable for the NAP team. In doing so, our Optimal Outage Planning System will also bring increased benefits for National Grid as a whole, for the DSOs, and for all the stakeholders.  The ultimate objective of this project is to develop a tool thatfacilitates the most efficient economic decision-making from the year-ahead plan to three-weeks ahead, andidentifies and tracks risks from year-ahead to day-ahead. 
Abstract Continuation of the RIIO1 project - NIA_NGSO0037.Outage planning is currently based on a worst-case scenario for each outage. There is limited accounting for the potential impact of increasingly changing system conditions (generation, weather, etc.) or of changes to one outage as a result of other outages. This has historically been done using “rules of thumb”. With the rapid pace of change, the current planning methods are starting to show their limitations. In particular, a lot of work is devoted to reacting and re-planning.This project will provide added value by providing a solution to the imperative need for better integration of risk estimation into the planning optimization so that the amount of work remains manageable for the NAP process. 
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Added to Database 14/10/22