Projects
Projects: Projects for Investigator |
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| Reference Number | EP/H03062X/1 | |
| Title | Using Control Theory to Design Sustainable Policies for Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Presence of Model Uncertainty | |
| Status | Completed | |
| Energy Categories | Other Cross-Cutting Technologies or Research(Environmental, social and economic impacts) 100%; | |
| Research Types | Basic and strategic applied research 100% | |
| Science and Technology Fields | SOCIAL SCIENCES (Economics and Econometrics) 25%; ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY (Electrical and Electronic Engineering) 25%; ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY (Mechanical, Aeronautical and Manufacturing Engineering) 25%; ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES (Earth Systems and Environmental Sciences) 25%; |
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| UKERC Cross Cutting Characterisation | Sociological economical and environmental impact of energy (Environmental dimensions) 50%; Sociological economical and environmental impact of energy (Policy and regulation) 25%; Sociological economical and environmental impact of energy (Other sociological economical and environmental impact of energy) 25%; |
|
| Principal Investigator |
Professor S Duncan No email address given Engineering Science University of Oxford |
|
| Award Type | Standard | |
| Funding Source | EPSRC | |
| Start Date | 01 June 2010 | |
| End Date | 31 May 2013 | |
| Duration | 36 months | |
| Total Grant Value | £241,529 | |
| Industrial Sectors | Energy; Environment | |
| Region | South East | |
| Programme | Energy Research Capacity, Process Environment and Sustainability | |
| Investigators | Principal Investigator | Professor S Duncan , Engineering Science, University of Oxford (99.998%) |
| Other Investigator | Dr A Papachristodoulou , Engineering Science, University of Oxford (0.001%) Dr C Hepburn , Grantham Research Inst on Climate Change, London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) (0.001%) |
|
| Industrial Collaborator | Project Contact , Ove Arup & Partners Ltd (0.000%) |
|
| Web Site | ||
| Objectives | ||
| Abstract | This project will apply concepts from modern robust control theory to develop algorithms for determining the optimal policy that both achieves sustainable levels of emissions of CO2 (and other greenhouse gases) and minimises the impact on the economy, but also explicitly addresses the high levels of uncertainty associated with predictions of future emissions. The aim of the optimal policy is to adjust factors such as the mix of energy generation methods and policies for reducing emissions fromhousing, industry and transport, in order to achieve a rate of emissions that will allow the UK to achieve its emissions targets while maximising economic growth as measured by discounted GDP. A key difficulty in determining the optimal policy is handling the uncertainty associated with the effect that the policy changes will have on the rate at which is CO2 emitted. One of the main conclusions of the Stern Review is that policies for stabilisation of CO2 emissions have to be implemented immediately and it is not possible to delay decisions until models with less uncertainty become available. If this conclusion is accepted (and indeed even if it is not) model uncertainty has to be incorporated as an integral part of the design of these policies. Currently, economists are unable to find optimal policies in the presence of uncertainty and most existing economic models address model uncertainty by running repeated "what if" scenarios to predict the outcome for a range of parameter values. This project will use concepts from robust control theory to develop tools for incorporating uncertainty directly into the design of the optimal emissions policy; the tools can then be applied to other existing models. Including uncertainty within the design quantifies the risk associated with the emissions policy, which allows policy makers and emitters of CO2 to incorporate risk within their strategic plans. The tools will be implemented on the ECCO (Evolution of Capital Creation Options) model that describes the dynamic evolution of CO2 levels emitted by UK economy. Unlike many other economic models, this model is based on the physical principles of mass and energy balances, which are used to derive economic measures | |
| Publications | (none) |
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| Final Report | (none) |
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| Added to Database | 05/01/10 | |
