Investigating Coastal and Estuarine Climate Risks on Electricity Asset Management (ICECREAM)

Completed

Other Power and Storage Technologies(Electricity transmission and distribution)
Other Cross-Cutting Technologies or Research(Environmental, social and economic impacts)

Applied Research and Development

ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY (Electrical and Electronic Engineering)
ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES (Earth Systems and Environmental Sciences)

Not Cross-cutting

Project Contact
National Grid Electricity Transmission

Network Innovation Allowance

Ofgem

01 July 2024

31 January 2026

ENA months

£697,852

Power

London

Network Innovation Allowance

Project Contact, National Grid Electricity Transmission

The project will deliver forecasts of the magnitude and extent of damage in and around assets caused by flooding and associated scour, as well as the probability of incidents occurring. Real-time actionable insights will be gained from the use of a variety of relevant sensors including:flood level sensorssalinity sensors to monitor corrosion potentialstill image cameras to support visibility of flood and erosion perilsexposure and vulnerability maps for NGET coastal assets.The project will produce sensor and forecasting data that enables a national-scale, multi-hazard assessment of the risks posed by coastal flooding and erosion to electricity transmission assets. This will also allow an assessment of the future risk posed by climate change and provide a cost-benefit analysis of potential mitigation measures. Using these data, risk heat maps and maps of future shoreline position and salt marsh encroachment can be visualised in NGETs existing GIS.The specified data will provide the following novel insights:Detailed asset-based maps to assess future hazards and their potential damage (shoreline retreat, flood inundation, scour or salt marsh encroachment), establishing which assets are at a risk and the type of reinforcement required.Forecasted time profiles of when severe impacts are likely to occur, the total damage costs and cost-benefit ratios, ensuring efficient and optimal mitigation response is initiated before network resilience deterioration.Maps of the hazards surrounding assets to assist in finding suitable new locations for vulnerable assets.Near-real-time alerts flooding and scour to identify assets of critical concern.Sensor-derived near-real-time alerts and data.These new data will provide NGET with the national-scale evidence required to prepare for and respond to future changes in sea level and storm activity, ultimately building climate resilience to transmission assets.The monitoring and forecasting data will provide National Grid with the tools they need to prepare for and respond to future changes in sea level, storm activity and salt marsh encroachment, ultimately building climate resilience into transmission assets. The project is seeking to identify vulnerable sites marked for relocation, not only substations but towers or tower route locations and will be delivered under seven work packages (WPs):WP1: Future shoreline erosionUtilise models of shoreline retreat that incorporate climate projections relating to sea level and storm activity to forecast the long-term shoreline position around assets:Source and process light detection and ranging (LiDAR) and other remotely sensed data for all substations and towers within 500 m of current shoreline.Apply climate projections at each of these asset locations.Forecast decadal change in shoreline position to 2100 for all substations and towers within 500 m of current shoreline.Validate as appropriate.Generate timeline of RAG status for all substations and towers within 500 m of current shoreline based on future proximity to shoreline.WP2: Future coastal flood inundationSimulate the future risk of asset flood inundation based on climate projections of future changes in sea level and storm activity:Source sea level data for all substations and towers within 500 m of current shoreline.Derive AEPs for all substations and towers within 500 m of current shoreline.Generate typical storm event curves for all substations and towers within 500 m of current shoreline.Apply climate projections based on UKCP18 RCP8.5 to the event curves.Source and process LiDAR data for all substations and towers within 500 m of current shoreline at 5 m resolution.Run Floodmap+ simulations.Generate a table to provide asset requirements feeding into WP6.WP3: Phase 1 of monitoring asset flood inundation, scour and corrosion potentialUse market-leading connected level and salinity sensors and still image cameras to test different parameters for detecting and alerting against risks to NGET assets in near-real-time. Data and learning from WP3 will support planning for further sensor rollout (See WP6). Learnings from WP3 will provide insight into the technical requirements for further rollout.Data from sensors will further inform modelling approaches:Preliminary site visits to confirm technical and consenting requirements.Project coordination including land ownership/management identification and liaison, permitting, H&S paperwork curation/coordination.Sensor installations.Sensor hardware delivered on a managed service basis (level monitors, still-image cameras, connected salinity sensors and/or anemometers with wind direction and speed).WP4: Future coastal scourForecast the depth of scour at tower locations based on Work Package 2 projections of future changes in flood inundation:Source and process land cover, LiDAR, flood data for all towers within 500 m of current shoreline.Process climate projections at each of these tower locations.Forecast erosion depths at tower locations within 500 m of the current shoreline at 5 m resolution.Validate as appropriate.Generate timeline of RAG status for all towers within 500 m of current shoreline based on erosion depth within footprint.WP5: Future salt marsh encroachmentForecast future salt marsh encroachment at tower locations, and thus the risk of corrosion to tower legs and conductors:Track evolution of salt marsh shoreline at locations of all substations and towers within 500 m of current salt marsh shoreline.Calibrate and validate, as appropriate.Forecast expected salt marsh encroachment at these tower locations.Generate timeline of RAG status of corrosion risk for all towers within 500 m of current salt marsh shoreline based on future proximity to salt marsh.WP6: Phase 2 rollout of monitoring asset flood inundation, scour and corrosion potentialUsing learnings from WPs 1-5, scope the business as usual (BaU) rollout of sensors (nature and number of sensors and sites to be instrumented) for delivery upon project completion:Identify the nature and number of sensors and sites to be instrumented following project completion and as part of BaU implementation.WP7: Cost-benefits of mitigation optionsForecast future damage costs to assets to provide a cost-benefit analysis of different mitigation strategies to identify the optimal time for reinvestment or reinforcement:Generate projections of estimated annual damage costs for all for all substations and towers within 500 m of current shoreline.Calibrate and validate outputs.Provide a timeline of cost-benefit ratios for different mitigation measures for all for all substations and towers within 500 m of current shoreline.Detail cost-benefit analysis of potential mitigation measures and strategies.Closure: Project completionCompletion of NGET project including progress and closure reports and related activities, as required by NIA governance. Work Package 1Determine high-level user requirements, including:Sites to be simulated based on data availabilityfrom various sourcesForecasting and data requirementsModel outputs.Understand the nature and availability of data from NGET.Forecast the long-term shoreline position at coastal assets.Completion of work package data documentation, summarising what was delivered, how and why, and information to support NGET in accessing the data.Work Package 2Determine high-level user requirements of user.Understand the nature and availability of data from NGET.Utilise current Previsico model to simulate the future risk of asset flood inundation at coastal assets.Completion of work package data documentation.Work Package 3Determine high-level requirements of user, including:6 proof of concept (POC) sites to be monitoredSensor data requirementsAlert requirementsData access requirements.Understand the nature and availability of data from NGET to inform sensors siting and consenting.Plan the sensor network, completing paperwork and sharing information as appropriate to facilitate acquisition of site access and installations permissions (from NGET and wider stakeholders e.g., environmental regulatory bodies, third party landowners etc.).Purchase sensor hardware and setup sensor dashboard for the 6 POC sites.Install devices at the 6 proof of concept sites and provide access to sensor dashboard.Provide sensor application programming interfaces (APIs) and/or datasets as appropriate.Complete work package data documentation.Work Package 4Determine high-level requirements of user.Understand the nature and availability of data from NGET.Forecast the depth of scour at agreed tower locations based on Work Package 2 projections of future changes in flood inundation.Completion of work package data documentation.Work Package 5Determine high-level user requirements.Understand the nature and availability of data from NGET.Track the evolution of salt marsh shorelines to forecast the future encroachment at agreed sites.Completion of work package data documentation.Work Package 6Utilise learnings from WPs 1-3 to scope the BaU rollout of sensors.Work Package 7Determine high-level user requirements.Forecast future damage costs to agreed assets.Conduct a cost-benefit analysis of different mitigation strategies.Completion of work package report, including forecasted future damage costs to agreed assets, and cost-benefit analysis of different mitigation strategies.

NGET are collaborating with leading innovators to assess how future sea level rise, increased coastal storm activity and salt marsh encroachment will affect the vulnerability of NGET assets. By bringing together expertise in flood and erosion monitoring and forecasting, the project will establish where or what assets are at risk and how or when action is likely to be required, informing risk mitigation approaches and strategies. This major advancement will be achieved through the combination of market-leading sensors, and state-of-the-art asset-scale numerical coastal flooding and erosion models to deliver actionable insights to NGETs existing geographic information system (GIS) and other applicable platforms. The project will assess climate change future risk, inform damage costs estimation, and related cost-benefit analysis of potential mitigation measures and strategies.?

02/04/25