LTS Demand Forecasting Tool Scoping Study (Phase 1)

Completed

Other Cross-Cutting Technologies or Research(Energy Models)
Other Cross-Cutting Technologies or Research(Energy system analysis)
Fossil Fuels: Oil Gas and Coal(Oil and Gas, Refining, transport and storage of oil and gas)

Applied Research and Development

SOCIAL SCIENCES (Economics and Econometrics)
SOCIAL SCIENCES (Business and Management Studies)

Systems Analysis related to energy R&D (Energy modelling)
Systems Analysis related to energy R&D (Other Systems Analysis)

Project Contact
SGN

Network Innovation Allowance

Ofgem

01 March 2018

01 August 2018

ENA months

£52,000

Energy

South East

Network Innovation Allowance

Project Contact, SGN

This project, currently outlined as three phases, will aim to develop a new forecasting toolkit that will be able to forecast demand in line with National Transmission System (NTS) Long Term Demand Forecasting requirements. The first phase of the project, the scoping study, will look to develop an understanding of demand forecasting requirements and produce a high-level specification for the tool kit. This element of the project will largely be desktop research however, it will include horizon scanning and workshops with relevant industry experts to support scope development.The research will broadly be broken into six segments: Identify user requirements Review of existing top-down methodology Assess drivers Outline specification development Outline CBA Initial long-term operation and maintenance strategy This project aims to design and develop a robust LTS Demand Forecasting Tool Scoping Study based on a “bottom up” approach. This will allow SGN the opportunity to evaluate how a new method of bottom up demand forecasting can be used to identify and accommodate present and future network changes.This will include the following work conducted by Delta-ee: 1. Identify user requirementsDefine user requirements while identifying key operations through hosted workshops and key stakeholder meetings.2.Review of existing top-down methodologyReview existing methodology to understand the types of scenarios and metrics modelled, the limitations of the approach, and identify any interfaces which are needed with a new bottom-up toolkit.3. Assess driversIdentify and prioritise the range of drivers associated with the transition in the energy system to a more diverse and downstream orientated system, which are likely to impact on future gas demands on the distribution network. Provide an assessment of the scale of demand change resulting from these drivers and how that may change over time, so that the sensitivities can be quantified.4. Outline specification developmentOutline scope including, but not limited to, inputs and sources of data, outputs to meet forecasting requirements, functionality relating to processes and required calculations and interface requirements with other tools and systems.5. Outline Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA)A CBA, benchmarked against current methods shall outline costs associated with developing, implementing and maintaining a toolkit that incorporates a wide range of new and existing variables.6. Initial long-term operation and maintenance strategyIdentify and select options for the ongoing management of the tool, which can be used to inform the toolkit development. The key objectives of this project are: To undertake review and assessment of current practices and methodology for LTS demand forecasting To carry out horizon scanning with a view to identifying available relevant datasets in line with industry energy futures scenarios To outline specification for model development considering available data sets and user requirements in line with SGNs long term operation and planning strategy To produce full CBA of the modelling toolkit to inform further stages of development To fully report on project outcomes and outline recommendations for Stage 2

This project aims to design and develop a robust LTS Demand Forecasting Tool Scoping Study based on a “bottom up” approach.

09/11/22