Peak Power Forecast

Completed

Other Cross-Cutting Technologies or Research(Energy system analysis)

Applied Research and Development

SOCIAL SCIENCES (Business and Management Studies)
SOCIAL SCIENCES (Politics and International Studies)
ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY (Mechanical, Aeronautical and Manufacturing Engineering)

Systems Analysis related to energy R&D
Sociological economical and environmental impact of energy (Policy and regulation)

Project Contact
SGN

Network Innovation Allowance

Ofgem

01 November 2019

01 February 2020

ENA months

£28,324

Energy

South East

Network Innovation Allowance

Project Contact, SGN

This project aims to carry out essential research and development into how much peak power capacity is forecast to be deployed from SGNs gas network in the short, medium and longer term. The analysis will to provide a forecast up until the end of price control RIIO-GD2 (2021-2026). This project will perform a series of assessments to establish the forecasts of the capacity of small gas engines for peak power in the short, medium and long term, with a focus to the end of the RIIO-GD2 period. An analysis of future developments of peaking plants An assessment of capacity shortfall in National Grids Future Energy Scenarios and the impact of the capacity market suspension in this gap by. As assessment of the regional development of gas peaker capacity. An assessment of constraints and barriers in each region, such as the ability to receive an economically attractive electricity connection offer. This will be based on publicly available information, such as DNO heat maps. An assessment of the potential impact of regulatory change, such as reform to Transmission Network Use of system (TNUoS) and Distribution Use of System (DUoS) charges via Ofgems Targeted Charging Review and Electricity Network Access project. The specific objectives for this project are to: Establish the requirement of new flexible capacity Establish the future of the Capacity Market and the impact on GDNs Establish the changes to capacity that would be required to accommodate any current gas demand shortfall Establish the regional development of gas capacity and future considerations, such as connection charges the estimated number of peaking power in SGNs footprint. This critical research and development project into peak power forecasting is a requirement as part of the pathway to decarbonisation and the outcomes and outputs from the project will be support the GD2 business case submission. The reporting will provide key information into the future analysis of capacity of peaking plants, the impact this will have on demand and the GB capacity market and an analysis of regional development of gas capacity. The actions required to accommodate changes in demand for electricity generation can then be established.

This essential research into the potential scale and impact of embedded electricity generation likely to be connected to SGNs network. The innovation is using electricity capacity market analysis methods to determine the likely scale of peaking plant in our footprint. This will be based on a review of the capacity market behaviour, analysis of the attractiveness of investment in the different technologies regionally with consideration of the shortfall in energy capacity identified in the FES scenarios. Novel techniques proposed potentially provide an innovative method for demand forecasting are not certain of success but will likely inform our proposed uncertainty mechanism in GD2.

09/11/22