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Hydrogen Turbines Follow On - Power Sector CCS and H2 Turbine Asset Modelling - Central Decarb market modelling results


Citation Baringa Partners LLP Hydrogen Turbines Follow On - Power Sector CCS and H2 Turbine Asset Modelling - Central Decarb market modelling results, ETI, 2017. https://doi.org/10.5286/UKERC.EDC.000132.
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Author(s) Baringa Partners LLP
Project partner(s) Baringa Partners LLP
Publisher ETI
DOI https://doi.org/10.5286/UKERC.EDC.000132
Download AdHoc_CCS_CC1011_15.pdf document type
Abstract Various scenarios for the UK’s power fleet composition in 2030 and 2040 were developed. Dispatch modelling in Plexos was carried out by Baringa on these fleets to investigate the role gas fed plants might have in future. This includes the ability to study load factors, stop/starts etc, and together with concomitant pricing, provide a picture of investment remuneration. The effect of key drivers is studied e.g. gas price

A new Central Decarb has been established for this analysis, which aims to provide a scenario that is somewhere between the previous HiBaseDecarb and HiRenDecarb scenarios in terms of capacity mix (provided by ETI) and emissions intensity and which also
  • models 2025, 2030, 2035 and 2040 spot years;
  • constrains the operation of H2 turbines to a maximum of 40% as opposed to the baseload operation see in previous scenarios
Anumber of sensitivities have also been run including:
  • HiBaseDecarb in 2040 with relaxed carbon intensity (by removing proxy CfDs and CO2 price) to see the resulting emission intensity
  • On Central Decarb in 2030 and 2040 to explore ‘small’ changes to Gas CCS capacity to see the impact on wholesale prices and emission intensity of power generation
  • Increasing (and removing) CCS capacity and removing (adding) the same amount of CCGT in 2030 and 2040 to keep capacity margin at similar levels to Central Decarb (+/- 1 GW in 2030 and +/- 3 GW in 2040)
The modelling results for Central Decarb and sensitivities indicate the sensitivity of wholesale prices and emission intensity of power generation to CfD eligible low carbon baseload plant on the system
  • Central Decarb results in an annual baseload price level between HiBaseDecarb and HiRenDecarb in 2030 but a very similar price level to HiRenDecarb (higher than HighBaseDecarb) in 2040 given the ongoing role of unabated gas plant at the margin
  • Although outturn hourly prices can be volatile in the presence of significant intermittent renewables they appear particularly sensitive to the level to the level of subsidized low carbon baseload plant in the 2040s, as this leads to collapse in prices for a significant portion of the year when demand is low, as seen in the Central Decarb sensitivities and the original HighBaseDecarb run
  • Removing the distortions to dispatch and prices caused by CfDs on baseload plant is unlikely to change the economics for a mid-merit H2 turbine plant as this does not materially change the highest 1/3 of prices seen across the year (as shown in the HighBaseDecarb sensitivity)
Associated Project(s) ETI-CC1011: Salt Cavern Appraisal for Hydrogen Power Generation Systems
Associated Dataset(s) No associated datasets
Associated Publication(s)

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Hydrogen Turbines Follow On - CCS and H2 Dispatch modelling - Scenarios 1 & 2 Results Pack

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Hydrogen Turbines Follow On - Review of Gas Turbines and their Ability to use Hydrogen-Containing Fuel Gas

Hydrogen Turbines Follow On - Salt Cavern Appraisal for Hydrogen and Gas Storage - Appendices

Hydrogen Turbines Follow On - Salt Cavern Appraisal for Hydrogen and Gas Storage - Final Report

Hydrogen Turbines Follow On - Scenario 1,2 and 3 Results Spreadsheet: Role of Gas/H2 in the GB power sector - initial analysis

Hydrogen Turbines Follow On - Scenario 10 Results Pack - Cost-optimal pathways to decarbonising the GB power sector - Final Report

Hydrogen Turbines Follow On - Scenario 10 Results Spreadsheet - GB Capacity Mix Optimisation - Results

Hydrogen Turbines Follow On - Scenario 5 Results Pack - Power sector CCS and H2 Turbine Asset Modelling

Hydrogen Turbines Follow On - Scenario 5 Results Spreadsheet

Hydrogen Turbines Follow On - Scenarios 1,2 and 3 Results Pack Report - The role of Gas/H2 in the GB power sector - initial analysis