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2030 Electricity Price Time Series: Modelling of hourly retail cost stacks in 2030 under three scenarios


Citation Baringa Partners LLP 2030 Electricity Price Time Series: Modelling of hourly retail cost stacks in 2030 under three scenarios, ETI, 2018. https://doi.org/10.5286/UKERC.EDC.000718.
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Author(s) Baringa Partners LLP
Project partner(s) Baringa Partners LLP
Publisher ETI
DOI https://doi.org/10.5286/UKERC.EDC.000718
Download AdHoc_ESD_EN1053_5.pdf document type
Abstract
  • This study investigates the costs that domestic electricity suppliers in Great Britain might face in 2030
  • Projections are made based on the assumption that, unless formally announced, no changes are made to today’s electricity market arrangements
  • Particular focus is given to the hourly variation and seasonal shape of costs faced by suppliers
  • Hourly retail cost stacks in 2030 are modelled for the average domestic electricity consumer in the East Midlands
Modelling was carried out under three scenarios:
  1. National Grid Two Degrees (NG 2 Degrees): A relatively high demand scenario, with relatively high renewables, nuclear and imports, but reduced levels of CCGT
  2. ETI Long-Term Role of Gas (ETI LT ROG): The highest-demand scenario modelled, with high levels of renewables, CCGT and storage, but reduced nuclear capacity
  3. ETI Consumers, Vehicles and Energy Integration (ETI EVEI): With demand the lowest of the three, this scenario has the highest levels of nuclear, but the lowest levels of renewables and storage
These scenarios were drawn from public sources, and were chosen to represent a range of carbon intensities and levels of renewable generation, as well as different levels of electrification (e.g. of transport) and flexible demand The modelling outputs are intended to illustrate:
  1. Trends in supplier costs that might occur between 2017 and 2030 if market arrangements remain unchanged
  2. Differences between scenarios that can be seen, reflecting different technology and market assumptions
  3. Issues that could result if arrangements remain unchanged over horizon to 2030
This Technical Report is one of the deliverables associated with this stage of the project. Associated deliverables are:
  • A word document providing interpretation of the findings in this slide deck
  • A high level viewpoint for senior stakeholders summarising the work, results and insights
  • An Excel workbook containing the key inputs and a
    full set of hourly outputs by scenario
Associated Project(s) ETI-EN1053: 2030 Electricity Price Time Series
Associated Dataset(s) No associated datasets
Associated Publication(s)

2030 Electricity Price Time Series: Future Retail Electricity Supplier Costs

2030 Electricity Price Time Series: Methodology and key inputs

2030 Electricity Price Time Series: Methodology and key inputs - spreadsheet

2030 Electricity Price Time Series: Retail supply cost analysis

2030 Electricity Price Time Series: Retail supply cost analysis - spreadsheet