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This workshop was the first in a series of technical workshops under the Energy Systems Modelling Theme (ESMT) of the UKERC. The overall goal of these workshops is to enhance the links between UK energy modelling practitioners, and to learn about different methodologies and analytical techniques. The specific goals of this 1 st ESMT workshop on transport modelling was to bring together energy-economic and transport modellers to learn about each others models, their synergies, and to develop potential collaborations in terms of data, insights and projects. The envisaged workshop outputs were:

• An understanding and typology of various energy/transport models
• Opportunities for sharing data and insights
• Opportunities for collaborative ventures

• To investigate the costs that domestic electricity suppliers in Great Britain might face in 2030.
• To make projections on the assumption that, unless formally announced, no changes are made to the electricity market arrangements in place today
• To focus in particular on the hourly variation and seasonal shape of supplier costs

• To investigate the costs that domestic electricity suppliers in Great Britain might face in 2030.
• To make projections on the assumption that, unless formally announced, no changes are made to the electricity market arrangements in place today
• To focus in particular on the hourly variation and seasonal shape of supplier costs

• This study investigates the costs that domestic electricity suppliers in Great Britain might face in 2030
• Projections are made based on the assumption that, unless formally announced, no changes are made to today’s electricity market arrangements
• Particular focus is given to the hourly variation and seasonal shape of costs faced by suppliers
• Hourly retail cost stacks in 2030 are modelled for the average domestic electricity consumer in the East Midlands

1. National Grid Two Degrees (NG 2 Degrees): A relatively high demand scenario, with relatively high renewables, nuclear and imports, but reduced levels of CCGT
2. ETI Long-Term Role of Gas (ETI LT ROG): The highest-demand scenario modelled, with high levels of renewables, CCGT and storage, but reduced nuclear capacity
3. ETI Consumers, Vehicles and Energy Integration (ETI EVEI): With demand the lowest of the three, this scenario has the highest levels of nuclear, but the lowest levels of renewables and storage

1. Trends in supplier costs that might occur between 2017 and 2030 if market arrangements remain unchanged
2. Differences between scenarios that can be seen, reflecting different technology and market assumptions
3. Issues that could result if arrangements remain unchanged over horizon to 2030

• A word document providing interpretation of the findings in this slide deck
• A high level viewpoint for senior stakeholders summarising the work, results and insights
• An Excel workbook containing the key inputs and a
  full set of hourly outputs by scenario

• To investigate the costs that domestic electricity suppliers in Great Britain might face in 2030.
• To make projections on the assumption that, unless formally announced, no changes are made to the electricity market arrangements in place today
• To focus in particular on the hourly variation and seasonal shape of supplier costs

• High Electricity: a world in which electricity becomes the dominant energy vector requiring upgrading of related electricity infrastructure. This test case assumes a predominantly centralised approach to generation and transmission.
• High Heat: a world in which there is considerable progress in rolling out heat networks in urban centres, with the mix of energy vectors otherwise being similar to today. The test case suggests a more decentralised infrastructure with more localised forms of generation.
• High Hydrogen: a world in which a transmission and distribution network for hydrogen is developed.

1. A summary of economic modelling findings
2. Identification of key technical, commercial and regulatory barriers across Case Studies
3. Classification of the barriers identified, based on:
   • Impact – the scale of potential system benefit of multi vector operation
   • Risk – the extent to which these barriers are surmountable
4. Discusses the innovations that might mitigate these barriers, comprising the necessary technical capabilities, and the required regulatory and commercial frameworks.
5. Assesses the additional work for multi vector operation to achieve commercialisation at scale, comprising:
   • Investment
   • Timescales and necessary uptake rates
   • Skills gaps, required operational transformation and strategic considerations

• Case 1: Retention of the gas network to meet peak heating loads in a future where heat decarbonisation is achieved by high electrification
• Case 2: Gas-fired Combined Heat and Power (CHP) and electric heat pumps supplying heat networks
• Case 3: Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles switching between electric and liquid fuel running modes at times of tight electricity supply margins
• Case 4: Renewable Energy Sources (RES) electricity generation to gas (hydrogen or methane) for injection into the gas system
• Case 5: Grid electrolysis to produce hydrogen for a hydrogen distribution system
• Case 6: Renewable Electricity Connection Constraint Mitigated by Domestic Thermal Demand
• Case 7: EfW Flexing Between Producing Electricity and Gas for Grid Injection

• For each case, agree the system configurations of multi-vector (MV) and single-vector (SV) instances
• Discuss the degrees of freedom available in each case that can be used to optimise the MV and SV configurations
• Agree the expected outputs from the modelling that will be used to calculate the multi-vector case benefit
• Discuss the inputs required for each case and for the “global scenarios” and the data sources tobe used
• Agree the exogenous parameters of interest for each MV solution model

1. Domestic scale heat pumps and peak gas boilers.
2. Gas CHP and Heat Pumps supplying district heating and individual building heating loads.
3. PHEV switching fuel demand from electricity to petrol or diesel.
4. RES to H₂/RES to CH₄
5. RES to DH and Distributed Smart Heating (“virtual” DH networks)
6. Anaerobic Digestion/Gasification to CHP or grid injection

• Description of the methodology used to map and classify multi-vector interactions
• An initial assessment of each case, describing the system, the issues addressed, the current situation and the likely ‘materiality’ for the UK energy system
• The process used to filter and prioritise the cases, and the agreed shortlist
• A recap of the subsequent work to be undertaken in Work Packages 2 and 3

• electricity,
• gas,
• hydrogen,
• district heating,
• liquid fuels

• peak avoidance,
• flexibility using multiple vectorsto supply the same load,
• overcoming a generation capacity constraint,
• avoiding curtailment of a generation asset, and
• backing up an energy source

1. Domestic scale heat pumps and peak gas boilers.
2. Gas CHP and Heat Pumps to supply district heating and individual building heating loads
   1. CHP and heat pumps operating to supply heat to district heating
   2. CHP supplying district heating, with co-generated electricity used to power individual dwelling heat pumps
3. PHEV switching fuel demand from electricity to petrol or diesel.
4. RES to H₂/RES to CH₄
5. RES to DH and “virtual” DH networks
6. Anaerobic Digestion/Gasification to CHP or grid injection

This project uses the global TIMES Integrated Assessment Model in UCL (‘TIAM-UCL’) to provide robust quantitative insights into the future of natural gas in the energy system and in particular whether or not gas has the potential to act as a ‘bridge’ to a low-carbon future on both a global and regional basis out to 2050.

We first explore the dynamics of a scenario that disregards any need to cut greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Such a scenario results in a large uptake in the production and consumption of all fossil fuels, with coal in particular dominating the electricity system. It is unconventional sources of gas production that account for much of the rise in natural gas production; with shale gas exceeding 1 Tcm after 2040. Gas consumption grows in all sectors apart from the electricity sector, and eventually becomes cost effective both as a marine fuel (as liquefied natural gas) and in mediumgoods vehicles (as compressed natural gas).

We next examine how different gas market structures affect natural gas production, consumption, and trade patterns. For the two different scenarios constructed, one continued current regionalised gas markets, which are characterised by very different prices in different regions with these prices often based on oil indexation, while the other allowed a global gas price to form based on gas supply-demand fundamentals. We find only a small change in overall global gas production levels between these but a major difference in levels of gas trade and so conclude that if gas exporters choose to defend oil indexation in the short-term, they may end up destroying their export markets in longer term. A move towards pricing gas internationally, based on supply-demand dynamics, is thus shown to be crucial if they are to maintain their current levels of exports.

• A final report describing prediction methodology and level of accuracy improvement achieved
• Costs benefits evaluation of different degrees of modelling detail and associated reduction in forecast error
• Modelling source code

This briefing is based on two propositions.

First, that gas security matters, because today in the UK gas plays a dominant role in the provision of energy services, accounting for almost 40% of total inland primary energy consumption in 2017. Thus, a short run failure of gas security would undoubtedly have significant political and economic consequences.

Second, that the current measure is far too narrow to offer a comprehensive assessment of UK gas security, particularly in a post-Brexit context. Discussions at the Gas Security Forum suggested that: the measure of gas security focuses only on infrastructure capacity and not supply (capacity does not equal flow); it fails to take account of the time-lag for gas delivery; it does not measure diversity or spare capacity; it ignores the impact of multiple asset failures; and, does not consider the costs associated with ensuring greater security.

It is in this context that this paper seeks to address the following questions:

• What are the constituent factors to consider in assessing gas security?
• What alternative measures exist?
• What potentially threatens gas security in the UK?
• What would a better approach to gas security look like?

The thinking behind this paper is that a more extensive approach to measuring UK gas security is needed to address the less dramatic challenges that face UK gas security, as well as the chance of managing a Black Swan event.

A review funded by HubNet and UKERC, and written by the University of Strathclyde's Damien Frame, Keith Bell and Stephen McArthur, argues that RD&D activity by Britains electricity distribution network operators has significantly revived; this revival is linked to Ofgem's 500m Low Carbon Network Fund investment.

The principal aims of this paper are to examine the range of reported unit costs for major generating technologies, show the range of estimates, explain where possible the reasons for the range, and show to what extent there is any clustering around central values. In addition, the paper explains the components of unit cost calculations and discussed what is, and is not, included in these calculations.

• Provide background on progress in the application of integrated assessment, and other analogous techniques, to transboundary air pollution processes.
• Provide a basis for identifying and assessing, in the next stage of the project, the key issues which would arise from moving from the regional level to hemispherical or global levels.
• Identify current uncertainties and constraints which might be relevant to wider applications as well as any new ones which might be expected to arise.

1. A short overview of where integrated assessment has now reached.
2. A fuller review of the state of play in the various inputs to assessment models.
3. A review of current uncertainties, although at this stage in no order of scale or importance.

1. Africa
2. Asia and the Pacific
3. Europe and Central Asia
4. Latin America and the Caribbean
5. North America
6. West Asia
7. The Polar Regions
8. The Arctic

This document provides a road map for Photovoltaics (PV) research in the UK. It covers PV materials, cell and module design and manufacture and applications including BOS components. It is specific to the UK and reflects the strengths and weaknesses of the research base in the UK, although it is compatible with the roadmaps of other countries, particularly the one recently developed for the European Community. Its primary aim is to identify priority areas for UK PV research and assist the research funding agencies, particularly EPSRC, DTI and the Carbon Trust, in developing their research programmes, but it also considers the need to develop UK capacity, both in terms of expertise and research facilities.

Research cannot take place in a commercial vacuum, and although not its primary function, the road map will outline the context for PV research in the UK. The potential for market growth in the UK and more widely is outlined and the need for market stimulation in the UK discussed.

The road map reflects the outcomes of a two day PV road mapping exercise, organised by the UKERC Meeting Place, that took place in Edinburgh in July 2006, together with inputs from a number of the attendees over the following weeks and subsequently contributions from the wider researcher community in response to an initial draft. The road map has also been subject to international peer review, and we indebted to these reviewers for their input.

The role of the UK Energy Research Centre Marine Energy Research Network in developing a route map for marine renewable energy research is described and put into the context of previous and current marine energy research at a national and EU level. A summary of the route mapping process is given based upon the Batelle approach. Justification is provided for route mapping in terms of encouraging cooperation and collaboration within the community to develop a coherent reseach, development and demonstration strategy, which will be used to inform policy makers and funding bodies. Some preliminary outputs from the network are presented in the paper to encourage discussion.

This document is a project report for the project 'A new approach to assessing the value of demand side management and storage in reducing costs for electricity system operation and investment.'

The UK is committed to responding to the climate change challenge and the energy sector, and in particular electricity, is expected to make a significant contribution to achieving this goal. Wind power, both on and offshore is presently the principal commercially available and scalable renewable energy technology and it is expected to deliver the majority of the required growth in renewable energy. However, the amount of electricity generated by wind is highly variable and therefore difficult to predict. One of the key challenges of this development is to ensure cost effective integration of these resources in the operation and development of the UK systems without compromising supply security.

The unpredictability of wind power makes it difficult to maintain the equilibrium between demand and generation. This increases the need for the use of technologies which help manage and control the level of demand, known as Demand Side Management. Demand Side Management, or DSM, works by shifting demand from peak to off-peak periods in order to reduce its variability.

This project investigated a new approach to assessing the benefits DSM could have to the UK. In this context, the proposed project will investigate a new approach to valuing DSM for alternative future development scenarios of the UK system. The methodology used was based on a radically new approach mixing modern financial modelling coupled with sophisticated mathematical and computational techniques. This investigation developed a novel mathematical framework aimed at valuing applications of DSM in increasing the utilisation and improving the efficiency of the operation of future UK electricity system. The project showed that it is possible to save around 30% of the generation cost to warm a typical household in winter using DSM.

This document is a project report for the project 'A new approach to assessing the value of demand side management and storage in reducing costs for electricity system operation and investment.'

The UK is committed to responding to the climate change challenge and the energy sector, and in particular electricity, is expected to make a significant contribution to achieving this goal. Wind power, both on and offshore is presently the principal commercially available and scalable renewable energy technology and it is expected to deliver the majority of the required growth in renewable energy. However, the amount of electricity generated by wind is highly variable and therefore difficult to predict. One of the key challenges of this development is to ensure cost effective integration of these resources in the operation and development of the UK systems without compromising supply security.

The unpredictability of wind power makes it difficult to maintain the equilibrium between demand and generation. This increases the need for the use of technologies which help manage and control the level of demand, known as Demand Side Management. Demand Side Management, or DSM, works by shifting demand from peak to off-peak periods in order to reduce its variability.

This project investigated a new approach to assessing the benefits DSM could have to the UK. In this context, the proposed project will investigate a new approach to valuing DSM for alternative future development scenarios of the UK system. The methodology used was based on a radically new approach mixing modern financial modelling coupled with sophisticated mathematical and computational techniques. This investigation developed a novel mathematical framework aimed at valuing applications of DSM in increasing the utilisation and improving the efficiency of the operation of future UK electricity system. The project showed that it is possible to save around 30% of the generation cost to warm a typical household in winter using DSM.

• What we do
• The areas we work in
• The outcomes
• Commercially available products
• Who we have worked with

This report assesses the currently available evidence on the size of unconventional gas resources at the regional and global level. Focusing in particular on shale gas, it provides a comprehensive summary and comparison of the estimates that have been produced to date. It also examines the methods by which these resource estimates have been produced the strengths and weaknesses of those methods, the range of uncertainty in the results and the factors that are relevant to their interpretation.

This document is a project report for the project titled 'A review of smart electricity meters.'

According to Government statistics, 27% of UK energy is consumed in meeting demand in dwellings and 19% in non-domestic buildings, with offices/university buildings contributing a significant proportion. A recent innovation, which can be used by consumers to monitor how much energy they are using and where in the property the energy is being used (specific appliances, lights etc), is the ‘smart’ or Smart Occupant Feedback (SOF) meter. These were highlighted as potentially useful means of providing this information to building occupants. It is hoped that by providing consumers with an accurate picture of how much energy they are using SOF meters will result in a reduction in the amount of energy we use. There are also some Smart Occupant Feedback Disaggregation (SOFD) meters on the market which allow users to see how much energy each appliance has consumed. This would make it easier for users to save energy because they will know exactly where the largest savings are to be made. However very little data exists on the accuracy of these meters and current reports suggest that some meters can monitor simple loads such as a domestic lighting quite accurately but a number of items of equipment less well.

The aim of this project was to review existing academic and non academic literature on Smart Occupant Feedback (SOF) and Smart Occupant Feedback Disaggregation (SOFD) meters, to test the meters both in a lab and in university buildings/houses then assess their performance and examine what further work can be done to improve the meters.

This document is a final project report for the project titled 'A review of the potential of giant grasses for UK agriculture'.

Grasses such as reed canary grass, spartina and switchgrass have been studied to only a modest extent in the UK in comparison with miscanthus and short rotation coppice. In addition, other less widely known species of energy crops have been examined in various countries across the world, but their comparative potential has not been systematically evaluated. The aim of this desk study is to assess the competitive position of all these giant grasses, particularly the lesser known species, for cultivation in the UK. An objective of this work is to draw together the disparate studies conducted. It is aimed to present an evaluation of the agronomic and economic performances of giant grasses with a view to identifying any species with promise for UK conditions that merit more detailed study.

This report details:

1. An introduction of the study
2. Summary of agronomic review of crops for consideration
3. Combustion characteristics
4. Economic assessment of the biomass grasses
5. Potential
6. Key future research and development
7. Conclusions of the work

This working paper considers the risks and opportunities posed to UK heat sector businesses by a potential transformation towards a low-carbon heat system in the UK. It is an output from the Heat, Incumbency and Transformations (HIT) project which is part of the UK Energy Research Centre programme.

The HIT project is investigating the idea of incumbency, considering what the term means, how it is present in the UKs heat sector and what the implications of incumbency are for the UKs potential transformation from a high carbon heat system to a low-carbon heat system.

The previous working paper developed a working definition of incumbency (Loweset al., 2017). This working paper forms the second phase of the project, exploring who the incumbents are in the UK heat system and the implications of the potential transformation for incumbents.

An online m

This document is a project report for the project titled 'A wave/current flume for research on offshore renewable energy devices: with the first application on multiple heavy point wave absorbers.'

This project is concerned with marine energy in the form of waves and tidal streams which may in principle supply more energy than the UK needs. The main consideration when developing devices which utilise wave and tidal power in order to generate electricity is economic viability. In order to assess whether potential devices will be economically viable to produce and run, as well as to maximise their performance, it is crucial to rigorously test physical prototypes.

The aim of this project is provide a wave/current facility (flume) in which marine power devices can be properly tested because the influence of currents on wave devices and waves is often overlooked. For this project a wave maker was added to an existing 5m wide and 20m long environmental flume. The wave maker can generate regular, random and directional seas which is vital because the power generated is much reduced by random directional waves which occur in reality.

This document is a final project report for the project titled 'AC0401: Direct energy use in agriculture: opportunities for reducing fossil fuel inputs'

This report details the bottom-up approach that has been taken to estimate direct energy use in agriculture, with 2005 as the baseline year. Data comes from CCL returns, professional surveys and best available professional knowledge. The total, direct, primary energy use sums to 20,387 GWh (73,393 TJ), but with an associated CHP electricity generation credit of 748 GWh (2,693 TJ). This is around 12% more than the total given by DTI for 2005 in its Digest of UK Energy Statistics (DUKES), which is based on returns made by energy suppliers. This report details the qualification of direct energy use, potential improvements to energy efficiency, and potential for integration of renewable energy across the agriculture industry.

1. Quantification of direct energy use in agriculture, with a breakdown by agricultural sector and fuel type
2. Energy use technologies and the potential for improvement in energy efficiency
3. Energy supply options and the potential for the integration of renewable energy
4. Action points and recommendations to Defra

This document is a final project report for the project titled 'Potential for Solar Energy in Food Manufacturing, Distribution and Retrail.'

1. Establish the current state of the art in relevant available solar technology - A detailed literature search of photovoltaic electricity generation has been carried out and its application to food retail, storage and distribution has been reviewed.
2. Identify the barriers for the adoption of solar technology - The real and perceived barriers to the uptake of solar energy technology options were investigated. This was done by obtaining the views of stakeholders by structured interviews and questionnaires.
3. Assess the potential for solar energy capture - In this work package the potential of solar energy capture for use in supermarkets and distribution centres was evaluated. This was achieved through modelling using available software packages and spreadsheet models developed specifically for the task.
4. Appraise the potential of alternative relevant technologies for providing renewable energy - Ways of using indirect solar energy such as wind power were investigated and compared with photovoltaic generation
5. Assess the benefits from energy saving technologies - This work package assessed the potential for reducing energy demand by using more efficient plant and improved controls in refrigeration and lighting.
6. Compare the alternative strategies for the next 5-10 years - In this work package the results of the previous work packages are reviewed and the economic viability of alternative renewable technologies is evaluated and compared with energy conservation measures.
7. Consider the merits of specific research programmes on solar energy and energy conservation in the food sector - In this work package a review of food transport refrigeration was carried out and the possibilities of using solar energy to reduce refrigeration energy consumption and emissions were considered

This document is the final project report for the project titled 'MARKAL Macro analysis of long run costs of mitigation targets.'

This report is the final report under the Defra contract EP0202 MARKAL Macro analysis of long run costs of mitigation targets. The objective of this study was to consider the additional impacts (economic and technological) of moving to an increasingly carbon constrained energy system, with reductions in CO2 of 70% and 80% by 2050. In addition, another objective was to assess the impact of including emissions from international aviation, and the implications for abatement in other sectors under a 60% constraint in 2050. This analysis builds on work led by Policy Studies Institute (further referred to as the EWP 07 MARKAL analysis), to inform the Government’s Energy White paper, published in May 2007. In that analysis, up to 60% reductions in emissions of CO2 by 2050 were considered, with many associated sensitivity runs undertaken to examine different assumptions.

A key part of the strategy outlined in the Energy White Paper Meeting the Energy Challenge included the provision of legally binding carbon targets for the whole UK economy, to progressively reduce emissions. A Climate Change Bill is being proposed that would implement such targets, and has recently been consulted on. As part of further discussions around longer-term targets, Defra commissioned this additional MARKAL analysis, to explore the impacts of more stringent targets than those considered in the Energy White Paper.

1. System evolution
2. Technology pathways
3. Economic impacts
4. International aviation

• Energy System Analysis –the importance of CCS
• UK Power System –the value of CCS
• CCS in the UK –some recent history and development of the ETI’s current programme
• Addressing the credibility of the cost base: the ETI’s Thermal Power with CCS - Generic Business Case Project
• Conclusions and next steps

National Grid operate Pressure Reduction Installations (PRI) on the transmission system in the UK and the US. These installations are predominantly maintained and operated to generic procedures which do not fully take into account location or site specific risks. National Grid has initiated work to develop decision support tools (DST5) which take into account location and site specific risk.

This report describes the PRI DST risk ranking model and scoring logic. The model development has been informed by Take and Regulator Station models and advice provided by the National Grid US operator. The PRI DST provides a qualitative assessment of the supply and safety risks associated with PRI design based on factors which affect the ability to continue to supply gas under fault conditions and the installation's reliability, integrity and condition. The qualitative risk model assigns numeric scores to each factor and calculates an overall risk score which reflects the likelihood of a supply failure or a loss of containment incident. The qualitative risk model will enable an assessment of the sites which are most vulnerable to failure against consistent criteria and allow these sites to be prioritised for more detailed consideration.

Ranking of risk scores will enable efficient and reliable sites to be identified, and the learning obtained can be applied to new sites and sites targeted for investment.

The use of qualitative risk models in the development of maintenance requirements is established good practice, but it is recognised that the availability and access to data can be problematic and can limit the use and application of such models. To address this, the tool is structured to efficiently use the experience and knowledge of National Grid operational personnel and accessible data.

This paper provides an international policy review on energy efficiency retrofit in owner-occupied homes and recommendations to apply best practices to the UK.

This working paper presents a review of policy design and implementation in OECD countries for increasing uptake of energy efficiency retrofitting in medium to high-income, 'able to pay' owner-occupied households. Renovation measures to help improve energy efficiency and decarbonise homes can include loft and cavity wall insulation, heat pumps and solar PV.

The review uses a rapid evidence assessment of academic and grey literature to address the following research question: Which internationally applied, good practice policies have the most potential to accelerate quality, energy efficiency retrofits of owner-occupied, 'able to pay' households in the UK?

The review reveals that residential energy renovations in OECD countries are mostly shallow single measures, with a small portion comprising multiple measures or deeper renovations. Although some countries such as France, Germany, the UK and the US have retrofitted millions of single measures to homes, this review has not identified any countries which have delivered deep home energy retrofit at a widespread scale.

We identify various review studies on policy instruments which have been applied in different countries and are considered important for implementing residential energy renovation. Policy instruments most commonly emphasised are regulations, financial support and information provision. Most reviews also include policies to develop workforce skills and competencies, supply chains and quality assurance.

Drawing upon our review of international and UK evidence, we make a series of policy recommendations for an effective home energy retrofit policy framework in the UK, with a focus on medium to high-income owner-occupier households:

1. Executive Summary
2. Project Manager's Report
3. Business Case Update
4. Progress Against Budget
5. Bank account
6. Successful Delivery Reward Criteria (SDRC)
7. Learning Outcomes
8. Intellectual Property Right (IPR)
9. Risk Management
10. Consistency With Full Submission

This report, commissioned by the Aldersgate Group and co-authored with Vivid Economics, identifies out how the government can achieve a net zero target cost-effectively, in a way that enables the UK to capture competitive advantages.

The unique contribution of this report is to identify the lessons from successful and more rapid historical innovations and apply them to the challenge of meeting net zero emissions in the UK.

Achieving net zero emissions is likely to require accelerated innovation across research, demonstration and early deployment of low carbon technologies. Researchers analysed five international case studies of relatively rapid innovations to draw key lessons for government on the conditions needed to move from a typical multi-decadal cycle, to one that will deliver net zero emissions by mid-Century.

The case studies include:

• The deployment of the ATM network and cash cards across the UK;
• Roll out of a gas network and central heating in the UK;
• The development of wind turbines in Denmark and then the UK;
• Moving from late-stage adoption of steel technology in South Korea to being the world leading exporter; and
• The slower than expected development of commercial-scale CCUS to date across the world. 

The report also sets out which low carbon technologies are likely to have wider productivty and growth benefits in other industries for the UK. These include carbon capture, use and storage (CCUS); heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC); wind energy; biofuels and batteries. These areas should be prioritised by the government’s innovation strategy going forwards.

• The UK needs innovation to meet its carbon targets and for this process to beeffective and rapid – with several critical components:market confidence, finance,public policy and thecapability to innovate
• Collaboration and shared understanding is required – involving interactions across science, business and government to facilitate knowledge transfer and learning – it is easier to achieve a transition with a shared understanding of the drivers of new low carbon energy technologies
• The slower the pace of energy innovation, the less time the UK will have to transition to a low carbon economy and the more expensive it will be to do so
• Successful innovation systems often involve open and iterative processes, which are complex. They depend on multiple interactions between different actors
• Policy interventions are required to drive innovation in energy and low carbon – business needs certainty so policy stability matters
• Industry and government should work together to set strategic priorities – low carbon markets are almost entirely driven by public policy but delivered by private sector firms
• Successful innovation in low carbon energy requires new technology capabilities, new markets, new business models together with appropriate changes to the regulatory framework

1. Introduction
2. Approach
3. How should Building Standards work?
4. Are Building Standards working?
5. What could be improved?
6. Is there another way?
7. Conclusions
8. Recommendations
9. Appendix 1 - Evaluation Criteria
10. Appendix 2 - Desk Research
11. Appendix 3 - Consultation
12. Appendix 4 - Discussion Forum

National Grid has a large number of Cameron self-relieving ball valves of varying sizes in operation in the gas transportation system. A number of these are large diameter valves and a 42' Cameron self-relieving ball valve has recently been taken out of service as it was leaking. National Grid would like some leakage tests to be carded out on this valve.

National Grid uses a number of methods to detect and quantify leaks. One of these uses a portable acoustic emission (AE) device where a sensor is directly coupled to the surface of the valve. This device can be used on above-ground assets such as valves, etc. but a significant number of National Grid's assets are below the ground where access to the surface of the valve is not possible. National Grid has defined the overall objectives of this project, to be carded out by the Health and Safety Laboratory (HSL) as follows:

1. Validate the use of leak detection equipment (based on a portable acoustic emission monitor system) for above-ground and below-ground process valves.

2. Investigate the valve's self-relieving system and quantify the leakage through the self-relieving system.

The scope of the project is to scale up and trial the GenGame direct control DSR product for residential customers, to run a feasibility trial for up to one year to test and refine the product and, if successful, to expand up to 2000 customers and run the trials up to December 2017 to test for sustainability over a longer period. The data from the trials will be used to develop the predictive planning tool.

This programme aims to engage both Tier 1 suppliers and vehicle manufacturers in the fuel cell system development process such that a significant progress can be made towards meeting the cost and performance goals necessary for the commercialisation of the technology in road vehicles.

As part of the development programme, a total of nine fuel cell engines will be designed and built in four development phases.

The overall project objective is to make available generic coal information on Chinese and Indian coals with regard to their combustion and emission performance, and to establish correlations between basic properties and this performance. Such information is clearly of value to UK industry in view of the export possibilities in these regions.

This document is a progress report for the project titled 'Advanced Gas Detection'.

1. Project Scope
2. Project Objectives
3. Success Criteria
4. Performance Compared to the Original Project Aims, Objectives and Success Criteria
5. Required Modifications to the Planned Approach During the Course of the Project
6. Lessons Learnt for Future Projects

This document is a profile for the project titled 'Advanced Materials Modelling And Lifing Technologies For Gas Turbine Components Operating In Coal Gasification Plant'.

This document is a profile for the project titled 'Advanced Modelling And Testing Of Thick Section Welded Hcm2s'.

This document is a report for the project titled 'Advanced Modelling and Testing – Thick Sectioned Welded Alloy HCM2S (P23)'.

• To optimise the fabrication of thick section HCM2S utilising practical and efficient welding processes (MMA, FCAW).
• To thoroughly investigate the welding of HCM2S without PWHT.
• To model the weld and cross weld mechanical properties of HCM2S both with and without PWHT in order to define cross weld properties.
• To demonstrate acceptable weldment mechanical properties.
• Consequently to produce fabrication guidelines for thick section HCM2S both with and without PWHT.

1. Background
2. Welding & Weld procedure qualification
3. Neural network analysis
4. Service Aged Material
5. Stress Rupture Testing
6. Residual Stress Modelling
7. General Discussion & Conclusions

This document is a profile for the project titled 'Advanced Monitoring Using Imaging For Combustion In Power Station Boilers'.

This document is a profile for the project titled 'Advanced Near Burner Flame Diagnostics For Ignition And Stability Studies On Full Scale Pulverised Coal Flames'.

The overall aim of the project is to improve the simulation of the near burner region of flames by CFD models, and to devise techniques whereby ignition processes in the vicinity of the flame holder and the flame structure immediately downstream can be assessed for individual flames in large pulverised coal fired furnaces. Specific project objectives are:

This document is a report for the project titled 'Advanced Optimisation - Coal Fired Power Plant Operations'.

In recent years the efforts to reduce nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions from power stations have resulted in operational modifications including the fitting of low - NOx burners. These modifications are expensive and generally have an adverse effect upon plant performance, resulting in an increase in unburnt carbon. To reduce these adverse effects, on-line optimisers have been developed as an enhancement to the power station's digital control system (DCS). GNOCIS (Generic NOx Optimisation Control Intelligent System) is the main optimiser used within the UK. This is a neural network based optimiser that takes various control parameters such as mill feeder speeds, excess oxygen, burner tilt and load as inputs and predicts the resultant NOx emissions and carbon-in-ash levels. In fact the models are usually used in reverse with boiler control settings being provided by the model to optimise the emissions.

The success of the boiler optimisation models has suggested that on-line optimisation can be used in other parts of the power station, eg thermal efficiency, electrostatic precipitator (ESP). Although each local optimiser is able to perform its task well individually there will be occasions when the individual packages will provide conflicting advice. The purpose of this unit optimisation project is to develop an integrated approach to unit optimisation and develop an overall optimiser that is able to resolve any conflicts between the individual optimisers.

1. Introduction
2. Project Members
3. Individual Optimisers
4. On-Line Thermal Efficiency Package
5. GNOCIS/Boiler
6. GNOCIS/Turbine
7. ESP Optimisation
8. Intelligent Sootblowing System (ISBS)
9. Unit Optimiser
10. Software Implementation
11. Handling Conflict Among Optimisers
12. On-Line Power Plant Optimisers in the UK
13. Recommendations
14. Conclusions
15. References

This document if the final report for the project titled 'Advanced PEM Stack Development'.

This report describes work carried out at Intelligent Energy (IE) to design and build a 50kW PEM fuel cell stack based upon etched plate technology, whilst simultaneously designing and developing a pressed plate technology capable of meeting the long term cost targets deemed necessary for full-scale commercialisation of PEM fuel cell technology. Also reported are the results of a joint collaboration with Johnson Matthey under which the design of a membrane electrode assembly specifically matched to IE's unique stack architecture was addressed.

The work carried out under this programme was specifically aimed at tackling the two issues of scale-up and cost reduction, by developing the etched plate technology and demonstrating a 50kW single stack unit whilst in parallel developing a pressed plate manifestation of the architecture, manufactured using high volume techniques (pressing, injection moulding etc.) thereby, clearly demonstrating that the resultant technology is capable of meeting the power output requirements and cost objectives.

1. Introduction
2. Etched Plate Design and Scale-Up
3. Pressed Plate Development
4. JMFC MEA Development
5. Cost Analysis and Discussion
6. Conclusions and Further Work
7. Appendix 1 - Programme Milestones

This document is a report for the project titled 'Advanced PF Power Plant - Improved Materials for Boilers and Steam Turbines'.

In 1997 the Foresight Task Force identified advanced pulverised fuel technology as having the greatest market potential of the Clean Coal Technologies over the following 15 years. This task force, together with the Institute of Materials task force on materials, highlighted that the economic and environmental performance of this technology was currently limited by the performance of high temperature materials for boilers and steam turbines. As a consequence of this, the required R&D programmes perceived as being necessary for the development of improved materials were outlined.

This programme is receiving support through the EC's Thermie framework and from the DTI. It has a far longer timescale to fruition than the present initiative, as it will require inclusion of a demonstration phase. The technology involved in the present programme will be commercially exploitable much earlier, and, even after introduction of technology based on nickel based alloys, it will continue to be competitive in markets particularly sensitive to capital cost rather than through-life cost. The present programme is implemented through a wider European collaboration under the auspices of COST 522; as such collaboration reduces the costs of implementation and ensures that the UK remains abreast of the state-of-the-art in this technology.

1. Background
2. The Cost Framework of Programmes
3. Technical and Economic Value
4. Boiler Group Activities
5. Steam Turbine Group Activities
6. Common Activity Goals
7. Plant Integration and Ancillary Components Group
8. Conclusions
9. Acknowledgements
10. References
11. Abbreviations Used in Text

This document is a profile for the project titled 'Improved Materials for Boilers and Steam Turbines'.

The principal aim of this project was to develop and demonstrate the suitability of advanced materials and components for the power industry. Such materials and components were aimed at steam temperatures of 620 - 650°C. Specific areas covered were:

This document is a summary of the project titled 'With/without CO2 Capture Options'.

This document is a final report for the project titled 'Aerosol Sealants Stage 1A'.

As part of the Stage 1 Seeker Particles work, Steer Energy recognised that a sealant delivered as an aerosol could provide an alternative approach to the existing technologies used to repair leaks. It is appreciated that this is most likely to be directed towards smaller leaks when compared to the robotically applied liquid sealants, and is likely to require some form of enabling technologies to be used to assist that deployment. This work dovetails with the work carried out in Seeker Particles Stage 2 and Gas Polymerisation Stage 1 as well as a number of other intervention projects that SGN are currently running through the NIC / NIA funding mechanism. Initially this project was to focus on direct technology transfer from the HVAC industry into the Gas industry to produce aerosolised sealants for use in the gas network. Exceptional contractual circumstances prevented this however and a development project was undertaken with a wider overall target.

1. Project Introduction, Changes, and Outcomes
2. Aerosol Sealing in the Gas Network
3. WP1: Application and Sealant Specification
4. WP2: Deployment Methodology
5. WP3: Design of Aerosol Numerical Model
6. WP4: Experimental Set up and Testing
7. WP5: Enabling Technologies
8. Conclusions and Further Work

This workshop had several aims:

1. To increase understanding of the different approaches to ABM and their applicability to informing energy and other policy intervention design
2. To identify policy areas where ABM techniques could be usefully applied and to examine how they could be incorporated into the policy making process.
3. To develop joint research proposals aimed at relevant research funding bodies.
4. To develop relationships between key researchers in this emerging area.

A policy for single Digital Bus Bar Protection has been employed on the National Grid UK Transmission network since 2002 either as a replacement system (for duplicated high impedance schemes) or for all new build double bus bar substations. These systems have a distributed architecture with remote bay units (interfacing to the plant) for each protected circuit with ruggedized cross site fibre connections to a central processing unit. Where a substation has a centralised relay room (e.g. GIS) layout, the bay units are co-located in a suite of cubicles and connected with a network of fibre patch cords.

This R&D Project aims to deliver an evaluation and desk top design solution of an alternative digital bus bar solution architecture. This will help formulate a future technical and procurement strategy for bus bar protection, potentially leading to a pilot installation, evaluation and deployment as a replacement (or new) bus bar protection system.

This document is a closedown report for the project titled 'Alternative Differential Unit Protection for Cable only and Cable & OHL hybrid installations'.

This R&D Project aims:

This document is a closedown report for the project titled 'Alternative Jointing Techniques for Small Diameter PE Pipe'.

1. Conduct a gap analysis to compare the requirements of Standards that selected fittings conform to, with the requirements of established UK Gas Industry Standards.
2. Demonstrate, under laboratory conditions, the assembly of all mains-to-meter mechanical fittings from 4 different manufacturers and compare against a conventional electrofusion mains-to-meter assembly.
3. Undertake laboratory tests of selected fittings for both leak tightness and pull-out resistance.
4. Undertake a cost benefit analysis and undertake field observations.

The scope of this project includes:

This document is a closedown report for the project titled 'Alternative Tower Construction'.

The project focussed on initial development, production and implementation of an adapted emergency bypass tower as a tower crane which could be used to erect and dismantle transmission towers at 275kV and above. Following mechanical and functional testing within a controlled environment, field based testing on a number of selected towers was to be completed to allow demonstration of the system on the SHE (Scottish Hydro Electric) Transmission. This would allow an assessment to be made of the suitability of the system and method for operational use going forward.

The principle aim of the project was to assess the suitability of the tower crane as a tool for the erection and dismantlement of transmission towers in a safe and sustainable manner.

1. Project Background
2. Scope and Objectives
3. Success Criteria
4. Details of the work carried out
5. Outcomes
6. Appendix

This document is a closedown report for the project titled 'Alternatives to Venting '.

Planned venting can arise from a number of sources around the network, including venting at compressor sites and pipeline decommissioning for repair, replacement or modification. Planned venting at compressor sites is monitored and recorded through the on-line control system. For 2011/12, this was reported as 2984 tonnes of natural gas.

This document is a report for STFC for the project titled 'Ammonia on-farm Life cycle assessment of different ammonia uses on a farm'.

The study found that aqueous ammonia fertiliser provided the largest environmental benefit out of the three ammonia uses. While ammonia vehicle fuel and ammonia CHP were found to provide environmental benefits across most indicators, in some areas the traditional alternative was preferred. This was not the case for ammonia fertiliser.

1. Introduction
2. Goal
3. LCA Specification
4. The LCA Model
5. Analysis of Results
6. Conclusion
7. Appendices

This document is a profile for the project titled 'An Automotive Class MEA'.

• Market, policy and regulatory frameworks
• Business models and customer offerings
• Integrated vehicle and infrastructure systems and technologies using electricity, liquid fuel and hydrogen
• Consumer and fleet attitudes to adoption and usage behaviours

• NET Power technology has the potential to be a gamechanger.
• Modelling analysis confirms that NET Power’s supercritical CO₂ power cycle has the potential to deliver carbon capture at efficiencies higher than conventional amine solutions.
• Some unpublished innovations which NET Power are protecting as trade secrets are needed to make the technology as cost efficient as an unabated CCGT, which is still improving rapidly.
• The technology is immature and has multiple development hurdles to overcome and therefore it is likely to take several years before it is commercially available at scale. It is therefore likely to be best suited for deployment once other elements of CCS have been de-risked (i.e. transport and storage) rather than in a First of a Kind full scale development.

• UK-grown biomass can deliver genuine, system-level, greenhouse gas savings.
• Planting around 1.4 Mha of second generation (non-food) bioenergy crops, such as Miscanthus, Short Rotation Coppice (SRC) willow and Short Rotation Forestry (SRF), by the 2050s would make a signifi cant contribution to delivering a cost-effective, low carbon energy system. This is equivalent to ~7.5% of the total agricultural area of the UK.
• Steadily increasing the area of bioenergy crops in the UK (averaging around 30-35 kha/yr of new planting out to the 2050s) would allow the sector to ‘learn by doing’ and develop best practices, as well as monitor and manage impacts on other markets and the wider environment.
• Delivering a substantial energy crops sector whilst balancing the demand for land from other sectors will require an increase in land productivity and a reduction in food waste throughout the supply chain.
• The market for second generation energy crops is nascent.
• As the UK prepares to leave the European Union, there is an opportunity to restructure farming support in a way which provides long-term clarity and support to farmers and encourages the sustainable growth of the UK biomass sector

• Offshore Wind
  • Is a proven technology that is being deployed commercially with a credible path to becoming competitive with the lowest cost low carbon technologies
  • The focus for technology development is now on – improving yields, reducing capital & operational costs and achieving wider deployment
  • A stable policy and funding environment into the medium term would accelerate the achievement of energy cost competitiveness
• Tidal Stream Energy
  • Is at a much earlier stage in the innovation chain
  • Its innovation needs are known and the challenge is one of how to put the component parts together in deployable systems rather than having to reinvent the technology
  • MeyGen’s Inner Sound project, the world’s first tidal stream array is pivotal to advancing the technology and developing supply chain capability

• Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) and Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) have the potential to reduce Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions over the well-to-motion pathway by 13% (LNG) - 20%(CNG) for dedicated engines and 16% (LNG) - 24%(CNG) for High Pressure Direct Injection engines per vehicle in the 2035 timeframe in comparison to the reference baselinediesel pathway.
• Cycle specific powertrain technology selection and pathway optimisation are key to providing GHG emission benefits over given usage cycles, with High Pressure Direct Injection and Dedicated gas engines providing the highest benefit.
• Retrofit dual fuel engines have been shown to have high methane emissions, often being worse than baseline diesel powertrains on a GHG emission basis. Effective testing procedures and legislative certainty are required to ensure emissions conformity and facilitate market development
• Providing methane catalysis at real world operating temperatures, i.e. below 350°C, is essential to prevent uncombusted methane making its way out of the tailpipe in powertrains that cannot control methane slip and is a key technology that enables a pathway benefit.
• Employing ‘best practices’ at LNG, CNG and L-CNG stations is a key driver to providing pathway benefits. Vapour recovery systems should be implemented at all LNG stations and the economic proposition and expected utilisation should be aligned. CNG stations should be connected to the highest pressure tier of the grid where possible or employed in combination with a L-CNG station as an easy step to reduce emissions associated with compression, at least until the carbon intensity of the grid is significantly lower than today.
• The economic proposition for natural gas in the HGV fleet hinges upon the fuel duty differential and currently only the long haul segment is economic in the near term. Fuel duty tax stability is key to enable market confi dence to invest in natural gas vehicles and the necessary supporting infrastructure.

• Planting 30 - 35 kha/yr of second generation crops (Miscanthus, Short Rotation Coppice (SRC) willow and Short Rotation Forestry (SRF)) would keep the UK on the trajectory to deliver a bioenergy sector of the scale needed to help cost-effectively decarbonise the UK energy system.
• Due to the seasonal nature of bioenergy crop planting, management and harvesting, the majority of job opportunities will be part-time, but are complimentary to the seasonal demands of other roles in the agricultural and forestry sectors, particularly arable farming. By 2032, a 30 kha/yr planting rate could create around 8,100 job opportunities in the busiest months (or 4,300 Full Time Equivalent (FTE) jobs when averaged across the year). By the 2050s, around 16,700 opportunities could be created during peak periods (9,100 FTE jobs across the year).
• The UK is not currently in a position to deliver a planting rate of 30 kha/yr - the total planted area of Miscanthus and SRC willow has remained at around 10 kha in recent years with a limited number of players in the market. Investment is needed in the production of plant breeding materials, including research into new establishment techniques to reduce costs. Investment is also needed in training and specialised equipment for planting and harvesting.
• As the UK prepares to leave the European Union, there is an opportunity to restructure farming support in a way which encourages the sustainable growth of the UK biomass sector. This could place a value on the wider environmental benefits growing second generation energy crops can make to the farming landscape.

• Respondents have consistently supported government-led action to tackle greenhouse gas emissions. In 2017, over half of respondents (58%) thought that the government should do more to reduce emissions, with only 6% believing that the government should reduce efforts to lower emissions.
• Support for producing bioenergy from both biomass and waste has been consistently strong across all three surveys with the highest levels of support recorded in the most recent survey. Across the three surveys between 72% and 77% of respondents supported the use of biomass, and 81-84% supported the use of waste for bioenergy production.
• Bioenergy is associated with several positive features. The ability to generate energy from waste has consistently been the positive feature most selected by respondents. The ETI’s broader analysis highlights the importance of using waste feedstocks effectively to deliver emissions savings. In order to help achieve this, the ETI is investing in a 1.5 MWe waste gasifi cation demonstration plant with syngas clean-up.
• In all three surveys, competition for land and having to import biomass because not enough is produced in the UK have been perceived by respondents as the main negative features of bioenergy. Our 2016 report explored these views in more detail and concluded that using a mix of imported and domestic feedstocks could be publically acceptable, such that the UK is not overly reliant on imports and can maintain at least current levels of food self-sufficiency
• The government has consistently been the most popular choice to lead the development of the bioenergy sector, but a greater number of respondents trust scientists/academics or experts in the field, independent consumer or industry watchdogs, and environmental interest groups to provide reliable information on the sector. This suggests it will be crucial for different groups to work together to increase awareness and understanding of bioenergy while developing the sector in the UK.

• The UK can implement an affordable (approximately 1% of GDP) 35-year transition to a low carbon energy system by developing, commercialising and integrating known – but currently underdeveloped solutions
• There is enormous potential and value in CCS and bioenergy in delivering alow carbon future
• The ability (or failure) to deploy these two technologies will have a huge impact on the cost of achieving the UK climate change targets and the national architecture of low carbon systems and future infrastructure requirements
• To avoidwasting investment, crucial decisions must be made about the design of the future UK energy system, driven by choices on infrastructure
• The next decade is critical in preparing for transition
• Preparation will require major investments in developing and proving key technology options by the mid 2020s
• Preparation creates options, demonstrates leadershipand provides scope for economic advantage in a global market place
• Planned UK spend is probably sufficient, if it is targeted to develop genuine deployment readiness of the most strategically valuable options on the pathway to 2050
• Significant policy intervention will be required to support key technologies with characteristics that make a pure market approach difficult (e.g. CCS, bioenergy, nuclear, offshore wind, heat networks

• Low cost sensors that enable many things to be measured – for example all the information that cars now have available.
• Communications infrastructure that enables data to be transported almost anywhere on the planet.
• Relatively low cost storage and processing power that is scalable, so you mostly only pay for what you need.
• Software tools that enable data to be transformed to produce information and insight that can be displayed in a way that people can easily grasp.
• Social and business ecosystems that set expectations and enable us to share and transact without relying on a single point of control.
• Rating sites such as TripAdvisor, blogs, PayPal and social media channels all provide social and commercial models that increase individual knowledgeand empowerment.

These elements have only just started to penetrate energy, which has been held back significantly by the current governance structures. Energy presents similar challenges to those of finance where changes which should benefit consumers come with new risks. However, giving people more freedom in how they buy and use energy should carry less risk than giving them freedoms over their pensions and other investments.

• Light Vehicles in the UK
• Plug-in vehicle sales
• Vehicle life
• Vehicle usage
• Consumer attitudes to plug-in vehicles
• Where to support charging
• Meeting vehicle charging requirements
• Network reinforcement costs
• Consumers, Vehicles and Energy Integration (CVEI) project
  • Consumer adoption: understanding the mass-market
  • Outputs –Modelling capability
  • Interim findings
  • Roadmap for efficient ULEV uptake and use
  • Trials will deliver further robust evidence

This note provides an overview and guide to a process of assessment being undertaken by the UK Energy Research Centre Technology and Policy Assessment function (TPA), with support from the Carbon Trust.

The UKERC has consulted widely on the topics that the TPA needs to consider. It has chosen its preliminary topics carefully, in consultation with stakeholders and in accordance with defined criteria. Intermittency – used herein as shorthand for a range of issues that relate to the costs and electricity system impacts of the intermittent electrical output from wind, solar and some other forms of grid connected renewable generation – has emerged as one of two initial TPA assessment topics.

The TPA will undertake meta-analysis of existing work in order to seek gaps in knowledge, examine different modelling assumptions, and consider how well different pieces of work fit together. The assessment will seek to make clear where and why differences arise in terms of models, assumptions, scenarios and interpretation of findings. It will identify research gaps and provide a clear statement of the nature of the questions that remain.

A key goal is to achieve high standards of rigour and transparency. We have therefore set up a process that is inspired by the evidence based approach to policy assessment undertaken in healthcare, education and social policy, but that is not bound to any narrowly defined method or techniques. The approach entails tight specification of the means by which we will consult stakeholders and solicit expert input, highly specified searching of the relevant literature, and clear and transparent criteria against which relevant findings will be assessed. It is described in the Review Protocol, below.

An introduction to the subject matter and description of assessment activities are provided in this scoping note and protocol.

The note is aimed at informed commentators and therefore takes some knowledge for granted – for example of terminology, recent literature and the principal concepts. Its focus is on why and where opinions differ, and the objective is to highlight questions and disagreements, but not answer or resolve either. A more general introduction to the subject is provided in the project scoping note and protocol.

Feedback and comment is invited on all of what follows, and in particular on the set of summary questions at the end of this note.

The remainder of this note covers the following topics:

• Identification of key issues
• Capacity values
• System balancing
• Allocating costs
• Framing questions

The energy system is highly complex and its future is uncertain due to unexpected changes and contrasting values. The complexity of the system may be defined by, for example, changing politics, technologies, finance and demographics. Under these conditions, decision-makers may struggle to confidently assess their future needs. However, decisions must be made so that organisational objectives are achieved, energy supply is secure and directives are met. For high-level decisions (e.g. strategic decisions reaching far into the future) it is unlikely that more time and better data will reduce uncertainty, and as a result, decisions must be made with existing information. Techniques like scenario analysis are useful for gathering this type of disparate information.

Deliberative techniques (e.g. scenario analysis) are used under conditions of high decision complexity and uncertainty. These techniques may interrogate multiple decision options under various future conditions, thus providing a first-step in understanding inherent risks and uncertainties. In this report we used scenario analysis to assess a set of risks under two plausible future energy scenarios. The studied scenarios included an energy system on a trajectory of development that did not deviate from its current projection (status quo) and a low carbon scenario whereby energy generation was largely provided by non-carbon (e.g. renewable) sources. Energy system experts were used to qualify the different risks and provide industrial insight.

The study analysed a suite of nineteen unique risks. These included political (international agreement, geopolitical issues, UK political issues), economic (project capital costs, investor trust in government, commodity pricing, electricity pricing), social (behavioural change, public perception, democratization of process), technical (rate of innovation vs implementation, energy supply chain, project risks, transport infrastructure), legal (end of life and stranded assets, pre/post operational governance, UK planning and licensing), and environmental (cumulative environmental factors, accidents and climactic events) issues.

The results of this study suggest that political and economic drivers pose the greatest risk, or barrier, to future energy system development. Though these two themes were perceived as being most risky, the character of the risks varied for each scenario. For example, political drivers (i.e. geopolitical) and the impact they may have on hydrocarbon prices posed the greatest risk to an energy system reliant on fossil fuels (i.e. status quo). This was in contrast toa low carbon scenario where the character of political risk (i.e. UK politics) focussed around long-term national policy-making, which in turn highlighted issues about investor confidence. Regardless the differences in character, experts perceived political consistency as being vital for improving confidence in their decision-making. Overall, experts consistently rated risks associated with a low carbon scenario higher than those for the status quo.

Our report provides a snapshot of current industrial thinking about the risks associated with different future pathways that the UK energy system may follow. In addition to identifying perceived risk priorities, this analysis also provides an indication of where gaps in knowledge and understanding about risk may exist. Strategies for addressing these gaps may include improved communication (e.g. between industry, government and academia) or targeted research. In either instance, the ultimate aim is to reduce uncertainty and improve conditions for long-term decision-making in the UK energy system.

This document is a report that summarises the findings of the DTI Cleaner Coal Technology R and D Programme Project 217 'Application of CFD Modelling to Mill Classifier Design'.

In order to reduce the carbon in ash (CIA) levels arising from the application of advanced low NOX technologies, it is necessary to improve the quality and consistency of the coal milling process. In many low NOX retrofit applications, mill upgrades, including classifier upgrades, are required to achieve the improved milling performance. Unfortunately, plant space constraints often make it impossible to install classifiers of ideal geometries and the performance of non-ideal geometries is difficult to predict using existing design methods. In addition, low quality coals are increasingly being used, alone or in blends, to reduce plant operating costs. The grinding and classification behaviour of low quality coals and their blends has been found to differ from that of UK and world-traded bituminous coals. Consequently, classifier design rules that have been derived from the extensive experience of milling bituminous coals are less reliable when applied to low quality coals. There is a clear requirement to improve and extend the range of applicability of classifier design methods so that they may be used to design classifiers of non-ideal geometries and for coals outside the conventional range of experience.

1. Introduction
2. Classifier Design
3. Review of E Mill Classifier Process Data and Design Rules
4. Physical Model Testing
5. CFD Simulation of Physical Model
6. Plant Trials
7. CFD Simulation of E Mill Classifiers
8. Development of Improved Design Rules
9. CFD Simulation of Primary Classification
10. Conclusions
11. Recommendations for Further Work
12. Acknowledgements

This document is a progress report for the project titled 'Application of DC circuit-breakers in DC Grids'.

The European Union Renewable Energy Directive has committed the Member States to National targets for renewable energy production such that at least 20% of the EU's energy will be produced from renewable sources by 2020. Meanwhile, the creation of an internal market for energy remains one of the EU's priority objectives. The development of an interconnected internal market will facilitate cross-border exchanges in electricity and improve competition. The potential role of HVDC in integrating renewable energy generation and cross-border electricity exchanges is widely recognised and many ideas for dc grids linking the transmission systems of different countries and renewable generation are being promoted.

At present, no dc circuit-breaker is commercially available and any dc fault will affect the entire dc network. A dc grid is, therefore, restricted to a single protection zone at present and the capacity of generation connected to it may not exceed the infrequent infeed loss risk limit prescribed by the Security and Quality of Supply Standard. The dc circuit-breaker is therefore an essential technology in enabling the concept of a dc grid to develop.

The objective of the proposed work is to understand the application issues associated with dc circuit-breakers in dc grids. The work will study the impact of dc circuit-breaker operation on the dc system, the HVDC converters and the connected ac systems. In particular, the challenges presented by protection and fault clearance in dc grids will be addressed. The work forms an essential component of the risk-managed introduction of the dc circuit-breaker onto the transmission system in accordance with PS(T)013. The results of the work will inform technical specifications and risk-registers for the dc circuit-breaker and for the protection and control of dc grids.

• Value of brine production: Lifetime T&S unit costs tend to increase with brine production for a given injection scenario (although some minor savings are observed for some of the units examined); however, more importantly, more injection scenarios with higher storage capacities become feasible with brine production.
• Cost effectiveness of brine production: Brine production allows significant increase in storage capacity at similar unit costs. In addition to achieving more CO₂ storage capacity with reasonable costs, a lower unit T&S cost is achieved with brine production at Firth of Forth and Tay.
• Optimal development/configuration plans: As CAPEX of clean water discharge infrastructure on platform is negligible, sub-sea brine production does not lead to significant savings in water treatment CAPEX. However, significant savings can be achieved in injection facility CAPEX (if high costs of installing platforms can be avoided with subsea brine production – e.g. if subsea facilities connected to a hub is the most cost-effective configuration for an injection scenario).

• Value and cost of brine production: Examination of potential impact of brine production on gas fields
• Optimal development/configuration plans: Examination of further brine production scenarios that will be provided by HWU (e.g. more optimised injection/brine production scenarios if necessary) and examining different infrastructure configurations with brine production (e.g. using a central water treatment facility, which can be connected to subsea facilities or oversea platforms via brine distribution pipelines
• Informing CO₂Stored database: Reviewing learnings from the initial analysis to consider how we could model other storage units in the CO₂Stored database

This document is a closedown report for the project titled 'Architectural Design of Compressor Site'.

National Grid has to operate in an ever more stringent planning environment. The implementation of the Planning Act 2008 has resulted in all Nationally Significant Infrastructure Projects being captured by the Planning Act. The result of this has been a greater responsibility on a developer to provide evidence that a full and open engagement has been undertaken with both statutory and non statutory organisations and particularly the public at large and further that opinions expressed by third parties have been properly noted and where possible used to influence the final design submitted for consent to the Planning Inspectorate.

1. Contemporary
2. Farmstead
3. Landscaped

This project will explore three environmentally sensitive architectural design alternatives that will be suitable for a typical compressor site, based on size (one small, two medium).

This document is a profile for the project titled 'Impact on Plant Performance and Ash Disposal'.

This document is a closedown report for the project titled 'Ashton Hayes Smart Village'.

The scope of the Smart Village project was to work with an engaged community (Ashton Hayes, a village in Cheshire) to help a DNO (ScottishPower Energy Networks) to better understand how increased small scale generation would affect the network while also helping Ashton Hayes reduce its carbon footprint. In order to ensure this was done successfully, it was necessary to understand in more detail the varying loads and voltages being encountered on the Low Voltage (LV) network. This more detailed understanding was expected to help inform future Tier 2 LCNF projects and existing planning processes within a DNO as well as helping to maintain network safety.

The project aimed to support Ashton Hayes towards its goal of becoming a carbon neutral community through examining the feasibility of connecting a range of low carbon technologies to the network. It also aimed to explore the relationship between the DNO and the community, establishing a blueprint for community engagement that could be adopted for projects across the country and integrated into normal business practice where appropriate.

The project achieved all of its success criteria. It supported Ashton Hayes in the introduction of low carbon technologies through the use of monitoring data to establish the voltage headroom, connected new technologies to the LV network (including photovoltaics, heat pumps, and an electric vehicle charging point) and ensured integration and optimal utilisation of these technologies to reduce the village's carbon footprint.

This document is a summary for the project titled 'Impact on Plant Performance and Ash Disposal'.

This project has shown that ash re-firing is both technically and financially viable on existing coal fired power plant. It is believed that commercial scale replication of the concept could be undertaken by plant operators using the data gathered by this project as the basis for a full scale development.

This document is the final report for the project titled 'Assessment of Ash Re-firing and Mineral Addition - Impact on Plant Performance and Ash Disposal'.

Pulverised coal fired generation plant will continue to play a major role in the world-wide electrical power market for the foreseeable future. Emission standards have become tighter in recent years and coal fired plant has been required to become more flexible in terms of operating regimes. The changes have led to increases in the levels of unburnt carbon in ash, deposition patterns in boilers as well as increased pressure on the performance in electrostatic precipitators.

This project, to investigate if ash refiring and mineral addition were viable methods of improving boiler efficiency and reducing emissions, was supported by the DTI as part of its Cleaner Coal Programme. The project involved the collaboration of two generators (RWE npower and TXU Europe), a major coal supplier (UK Coal) plus two university groups (Imperial College London and the University of Sheffield)

1. Introduction
2. Project Overview - Aims, objectives and work programme
3. Coals and minerals selected for the project
4. Mineral addition trials on the Entrained Flow Reactor
5. University of Sheffield MSc projects
6. Pilot scale trials of ash re-firing
7. Pilot scale trials of mineral additions
8. Characterisation of coals, ashes, minerals and deposits
9. The nature of fly ash and its ability to be collected in electrostatic precipitators
10. Power station evaluation of ash re-firing
11. Techno-economic assessment
12. Conclusions
13. List of Participants

The work will provide a comprehensive view of distributed generation types and susceptibility to RoCoF for the entire GB synchronous network. The feasibility and implications of using revised protection settings to avoid coincident distributed generation losses during loss of infeed events will be established.

The key objectives are to reduce operational costs and to enable increased system access for asynchronous generation types including renewable generation (wind, solar). If measures are not taken to ensure distributed generation is less susceptible to RoCoF events, then increased operating costs are likely to result through the curtailment of large infeed risks or the operation of synchronous generation in favour of asynchronous generation to manage RoCoF risks. Potential increases in system operating costs by 2018/19 are forecast to be £250m per annum, rising to in excess of £1000m per annum by 2025.

Four reports have been provided detailing the outcomes of the project.

This document is a closedown report for the project titled 'Assessment of Electronic (analogue and Numeric) Protection equipment end of life mechanisms'.

The scope of the project will establish the techniques and processes to be used on these equipment types. These techniques and processes will be applied to a specific number of relay types to validate the process and evaluate the lives of these specific equipment types. The specific equipment types selected will be those predominantly in service on the transmission network which current policy would require to be replaced in the next 5 years. The establishment of a successful evaluation process for asset life would then be utilised as a research method to evaluate asset lives on other specific equipment types.

Each of the three relay types yielded consistent evaluation results and has demonstrated eligibility for an asset life extension. Based on condition and deterioration observed to date an initial extension of five years for each relay type is proposed. Since the tested relay types continue to perform reliably with no increase in failure rates or component degradation over many years of service, the flat failure-rate trajectory does not forecast any specific end of asset life. The proposal to extend asset life by five years comprises a service life extension of only 15% of the time for which the oldest evaluated unit has already served. The service life extension is further supported by thorough technical evaluation of any failure that occurs during the extended life interval, and re-evaluation of the policy change if any unforeseen failure pattern arises. The process established in this project may be applied to other types of light current equipment with further investigation and development.

This document is a closedown report for the project titled 'Assessment of hydrophobic treatment for gas compressor air intake values & screens'.

Under certain climatic conditions it is possible for unacceptable levels of ice to build up on gas turbine air intakes. Ice build up on the air intake structures reduces the available cooling and combustion air for the gas turbine, reducing efficiency and the integrity of the unit if the ice should become ingested within the engine. This would have serious consequences for the integrity of the gas turbine unit and network supply capability due to unit failure.

There is considerable worldwide experience of operation gas turbine based infrastructure in low ambient temperatures and a number of ice treatment technologies are well defined. Dovetailing the most cost effective available ice treatments with the existing air intake structures. This and also employing any fortuitous effects such as surface roughness, will improve the overall effectiveness of water repulsion and ice management of gas turbine air intakes across the National Grid fleet.

The project demonstrated that pre treating air intakes with hydrophobic solutions, PTFE coatings or filter oil only offered a marginal delay (compared to equivalent non treated components) before the on set of icing conditions. This combined with some of the potential health and safety issues associated when applying these solutions (working at height) means that that the evaluation confirmed that this project will not be progressed further at this stage.

This report examines the current levels of methane emission from livestock manures and slurries in the UK and then explores possible options and routes for reducing the greenhouse gas emissions within a methane generation and recovery strategy for England.

Methane emissions from manures and slurry management make up 14% of the total methane emissions from livestock husbandry in the UK. Although slurry based management systems make up less than 40% of the manure management infrastructure, they account for 74% of methane emissions from manures and slurries.

In this study, we have looked in detail at the economics for options for on-farm AD and centralised AD in England. All the options proved uneconomic without some extra Government support. However, a small number of larger CAD may be economic, especially if higher levels of industrial waste (up to 20%) were treated in the CAD. A cost benefit analysis based on the options and assuming Government support in the form of capital grants suggests that greenhouse gas emissions equivalent to up to 0.03MtC could be saved annually at a cost of £60/tC, if 20 CAD plants were built. However, this would result in lifetime costs to Government of £ 143M. On-farm AD would need significant support to be economic.

1. Introduction
2. Current Situation
3. Technology options
4. Options for Methane Mitigation
5. Wider benefits and challenges for AD
6. Conclusions and Recommendations
7. Glossary, References & Appendices

• Appendix 1 - Methane to Markets Questionnaire
• Appendix 2 - Manure and Methane Production Data
• Appendix 3 - Basis of Options for England
• Appendix 4 - Economics and Greenhouse Gas Balance of AD

This document contains a report on Phase II of the work undertaken by the University of Strathclyde and commissioned by the Energy Network Association on behalf of the workgroup "Frequency changes during large system disturbances" (GC0079). The workgroup is a joint activity of the UK Grid Code Review Panel (GCRP) and Distribution Code Review Panel (DCRP) which addresses the issue of system integrity under anticipated future low inertia conditions. The original terms of reference for this work issued by ENA in April 2014 are included in Appendix D of this report.

The aim of the work described in this report is to assess and quantify the risks associated with proposed changes to ROCOF protection settings from the point of view of undetected islands and the consequent risks to individuals' safety, as well as the risk of potential equipment damage through unintentional out-of-phase auto-reclosing.

1. Executive Summary
2. Introduction
3. WP2 - Simulation based assessment of NDZ
4. WP3 - Risk level calculation at varying NDZ
5. Conclusions
6. References

• Appendix A: Simulation model parameters
• Appendix B: Detailed record of NDZ Assessment
• Appendix C: Full record of risk assessment results
• Appendix D: Terms of Reference

This document is the final report for the project titled 'Assessment of the Significance of Changes to the Inshore Wave Regime as a consequence of an Offshore Wind Array'.

Offshore windfarm (OWF) development within the UK is presently in the Second Round of licensing by Defra through FEPA (1985). Many of the Round One licences have already been granted, and of these, the development on Scroby Sands was one of the first. More significantly, Scroby Sands is amongst the few OWFs situated in a dynamic sedimentary environment. It is also close to a coastline which is vulnerable to erosion and which has seen numerous different coastal protection schemes in recent years. Development of the OWF at this site was started in autumn 2003, and electricity production commenced in December 2004.

This report details work undertaken only under contract AE1227. It was anticipated that this work would provide evidence-based research from which to refine any requirements for monitoring of waves that have been included within licence conditions of Round One developments, and that could be included within those conditions for Round Two developments.

The sensitivity analysis enabled by the modelling showed that for a simplistic flat seabed, wave interference patterns were most pronounced for waves approaching the monopile array obliquely, at an angle of 35 degrees. For more realistic bathymetry, this angle was decreased, but more significant was the maximum reduction in wave height from 5% (flat seabed) to 2% (realistic bathymetry). Thus, effects of wave refraction in shallow water are greater than those of monopile-related wave diffraction and interference. Wave refraction in shallow water acts to reduce any effect of the monopiles upon waves.

The quantitative value of predicted change to wave height as a result of monopile arrays, of 2%, is in agreement with those estimates presented as part of the Environmental Statements for other more recent windfarms. It has not been possible to detect this small change using the presently available measurement and analysis techniques afforded by X-band radar. It is therefore concluded that wave diffraction and interference effects arising from monopile arrays are negligible. By inference, any effect on coastal erosion is therefore also likely to be negligible.

1. Scientific Objectives
2. Summary of Success (Against Scientific Objectives)
3. Methods
4. Results
5. Discussion
6. Conclusion
7. Implications & Significance
8. Future Research
9. Resulting Actions
10. References

This document is a summary of the study titled 'Assessment of the impact of Warm Front on decent homes for private sector vulnerable households'.

This document is a closedown report for the project titled 'Asset Health & Criticality Modeling'.

The purpose of the project is to provide a new methodology for delivering the requirements for Ofgem reporting. The collaborative working across the GDNs will provide a consistent benchmark for reporting a complex solution in a pragmatic way. The external service provider will be looking to determine pioneering research into deterioration models and probability of failure analysis using a nationwide data set. This will then be cross referenced with condition analysis based on current data and historical trends.

This document is the final report for the project titled 'Asset Health Modelling (Pipelines, Special Crossings & Block Valves)'.

Following submission of the Gas Distribution Network's (GDN's) business plans, Ofgem recognised the significant work carried out by the GDNs to report asset health, probability of failure and deterioration. However, it was recognised that the framework did not provide consistent results between the GDNs. Ofgem intended the framework to provide a consistent means of comparing information between GDNs and enable GDNs to compare information about the condition of assets over time. In addition, Ofgem sought evolution over time to combine information from different asset classes to form an overall view of the condition of GDN assets and risk therein.

This project looked to overcome the problem of reporting the health and criticality of one of the key group of assets - Local Transmission Pipeline assets; comprising the pipelines themselves plus all the associated assets such as block valves, special crossings and sleeves. The SRWG engaged with the industry experts in PIE due to the inherent knowledge that they held plus the level of interaction that they already had with the GDNs through the UKOPA (United Kingdom Onshore Pipeline Operators Association) group.

This report is contains an Executive Summary, and is split into two technical notes.

Technical Note PIE/14/TN113 :- Development of a Model for classifying the Health Index of non-piggable pipelines:

1. Summary
2. Background
3. Characteristics of external Corrosion
4. Application to Non-piggable Pipelines
5. Allocation of Health Index
6. Categorisation due to fatigue damage
7. Conclusions
8. References

• Appendix 1 - Procedures for 5-Yearly Inspection of Non-Piggable Pipelines
• Appendix 2 -Proposed Process for Defining "Intervention" to Extend Pipeline Life
• Appendix 3 - Calculation of Fatigue Damage due to Cyclic Pressure in Transmission Pipelines

Technical Note PIE/14/TN125 :- Models for Classifying the Health Indices of Block Valves, Sleeves and Above Ground Crossings:

1. Summary
2. Background
3. PoF Models for Block Valves, Sleeves and Crossings
4. PoF Model and Prediction of Health Index for Block Valves
5. Prediction of Health Index for Sleeves
6. PoF Model For Nitrogen Sleeves
7. Non-N2 Sleeves Health Index Predictions
8. Prediction for Health Index for Crossings
9. PoF Model for Above Ground Crossings
10. Prediction of Health index for Above ground crossings
11. PoF Model for River Crossings
12. River Crossings Health Index Predictions
13. Conclusions
14. References

• Appendix 1 - Proposed Definition of Intervention Process required to Reassign Block Valve Health Index
• Appendix 2 - Proposed Definition of Intervention Process required to Reassign Non-Nitrogen Sleeve Health Index
• Appendix 3 - Proposed Definition of Intervention Process required to Reassign Nitrogen Sleeve Health Index
• Appendix 4 - Proposed Definition of Intervention Process required to Reassign Above Ground Crossing Health Index
• Appendix 5 - Proposed Definition of Intervention Process required to Reassign River Crossing Health Index

This document is a closedown report for the project titled 'Asset Health Modelling'.

The objective of this project is to develop a Condition Based Risk Model (CBRM) that will determine the future health index of National Grid Gas Distribution's governors and pressure reduction assets in order to prioritise future investment decisions. The CBRM tool will allow the future Health Index (HI) and Probability of Failure (POF) of these assets to be simulated and assessed. This will enable understanding of asset condition and criticality, identifying and modelling different interventions to mitigate risk, and prioritise and select optimal expenditure via a condition based risk approach.

A CBRM model for a single asset group (District Governors) has been developed in order to provide National Grid the opportunity to understand the CBRM process. The District Governor CBRM model incorporates the factors that NGG consider to be relevant in terms of their impact on the health, criticality and risk of their District Governors, including asset age, expected service life, situation, location and duty and environment.

This document is a report on the study conducted by the Joule Centre titled 'Aviation in the North West: Emissions, Economics and Organisational Flying'.

The international community recognises climate change as one of the greatest threats facing the social, environmental and economic well-being of human-kind. At a national level, the UK has demonstrated a clear international lead in responding to climate change by putting the need for and delivery of greenhouse gas emissions reductions on a statutory footing through the Climate Change Act 2008. This act introduced legally binding targets to achieve emission reductions in both the short and longer term. Furthermore, and unlike previous UK emission reduction policies, the Climate Change Act includes international aviation emissions explicitly in its 80% 2050 target and implicitly within the current budgets.

For the UK as a whole, then, there is a clear need to balance the cost and overall economic impact of delivering additional reductions in greenhouse gas emissions for these 'other' sectors versus the costs and economic impact of curbing growth in emissions from aviation.

The Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, funded by the Joule Centre for Energy Research, has analysed the emissions, economics and policy implications of the region's aviation industry. The objectives of the Tyndall Centre study are:

1. Introduction
2. Aviation and the North West
3. Estimating Regional Aviation Emissions
4. Developing Low Carbon Pathways for the North West
5. Economic impact of constraining aviation emissions growth
6. Organisational consumption: Understanding Flying for Work
7. Conclusions and Recommendations

ENW have secured LCNF funding a project that will trial the use of tap changing at a number of primary substations. The purpose of the trial is to establish the degree to which voltage can be either increased or decreased to provide demand increase/decrease to manage DNO network constraints. In addition staggered tap changes will be trailed to establish what scale of reactive power absorption or injection can be provided. The main focus of the trial is to evaluate degree to which primary substations can be used in this novel way without causing a noticeable impact on electricity consumers.

From a NGET perspective, the effect that these actions have on existing Transmission assets and controls must be understood in order to:

The objectives of the project include:

• Trade-offs and co-benefits need to be actively managed if multiple environmental objectives are to be achieved and the low carbon transition is to enhance the natural ecosystems that are essential to prosperity and well-being. UKERCs research on environmental goals informs the answer to Q1.
• Energy efficiency and heat system retrofit in buildings offers an immediate triple-win in terms of economic stimulus, societal benefits and environmental goals. A strong long-term economic case can also be made to boost investment in all of those areas where the UK will need to build infrastructure and capacity in order to meet decarbonisation objectives. UKERC has examined the evidence on green jobs. We explore this in more detail in our answer to Q2.
• There are already skills gaps in the sectors relevant to energy efficiency retrofit and it is important to invest in addressing these, as we explain in the answer to Q3.
• Further action is needed to strengthen the industrial strategy. Ambition needs to go well beyond the aim to decarbonise one (or even all) of the UKs industrial clusters. Decarbonising all of industry will require research, development and demonstration support for breakthrough technologies and wider low-carbon infrastructure; market creation for products made via low carbon production processes; and promotion of resource efficiency and circular economy approaches. UKERC has published a number of reports highlighting where further action is needed, as detailed in Q4.
• Our research shows widespread low carbon ambition in local authorities but significant challenges in converting this to action. To change this, government could establish a new policy mandate for net zero carbon localities, institutionalise local net zero carbon planning and implementation through a new statutory power and devolved resources, and invest in local authority net zero teams. Q5 reviews a range of evidence on the role of local government.

• We welcome that a target of 600,000 heat pumps is included in the plan as this provides some clear direction for industry. However this is purely a target and it requires a thorough policy and governance framework to both support deployment and protect consumers.
• Despite the clear case for district heating, it is overlooked in the plan, and there is a lack of focus on energy efficiency despite the expected centrality of both of these technologies.

UKERC have submitted a response to the BEIS call for evidence on the future for small-scale low-carbon generation. This consultation sought to identify the role that small-scale low-carbon generation can play in the UK shift to clean growth by further understanding:

• The challenges and opportunities from small-scale low-carbon generation in contributing to government's objectives for clean, secure, affordable and flexible power; and
• The role for government and the private sector in overcoming these challenges and realising these opportunities.

In our submission we responded to the individual points raised in the call, drawing on two streams of work undertaken as part of the UKERC research programme. The first stream concerns community energy, drawing primarily on data from the UKERC Financing Community Energy project. This project has collected and analysed data from a number of sources:

• Quantitative data gathered as part of a UK-wide survey of community energy finance and business models. This dataset covers 145 community energy projects run by 48 different community energy organisations.
• Qualitative data on community energy organisations' suggestions for changes in public policy and industry practice, and their plans for the future, gathered as part of the same UK-wide survey.
• Further qualitative data on community energy organisations' views on pathways to future decentralised energy business models, gathered at workshops held as part of the Manchester Mayor's Green Summit process, and the Community Energy England annual conference 2018.
• A wide range of other data and literature, including access to the dataset collected for Community Energy England's 2017 State of the Sector Survey, covering 220 community energy organisations in England, Wales and Northern Ireland.

The second stream draws on a number of recent UKERC publications on electricity systems and networks :

• Developing low carbon networks for a low-carbon future
• Security of electricity supply in a low-carbon Britain
• The Costs and Impacts of Intermittency
• Delivering a highly distributed electricity system: Technical, regulatory and policy challenges.

Most compressor station Gas Turbine units have a number of battery powered emergency back up dc motors driving the vent fans, lube pumps etc. which are started in the event of a mains power failure. Currently these motors are started from resistor type starters located within each compressor unit's dc motor control centre.

At a number of compressor stations these resistor starters have overheated causing damage to the control equipment and constituting a fire risk.

It is proposed to replace these with a new dc electronic motor starter. DC electronic motor starters are not available as off the shelf products for a dc battery supply and will therefore require design and development. A prototype will be designed and tested and then a working unit will be installed at Wooler compressor station for a trial followed by the installation of the remaining 2 within the unit.

The objective of the project is to develop a safer and more reliable alternative to the resistance type motor starters currently installed on compressor sites.

A single DC electronic drive was manufactured as a prototype and tested on a load bank. Following successful completion of the test phase three units were manufactured and installed on an operational site. These are now fully installed and operational. The project is now closed

• Energy balancing is critical and extends beyond the electricity system
• Numerous opportunities to achieve balancing include:
  • Energy storage
  • Demand side flexibility
  • Vector integration
• Key decisions that lead to new energy systems will affect how much and what type of flexibility is needed.
• There is a huge amount of potential that we do not currently understand about balancing within a whole energy system.
• It is possible to assess the requirements for future flexibility – tools and evidence are being developed to help with this.

This document is a summary for the project titled 'Band Structural Engineering of TiO2 for Efficient Solar Cells'.

This project is aimed at increasing the energy conversion efficiency of Titanium Dioxide which can be applied to cheaper materials, such as glass, plastics etc, using deposition to create solar cells. Currently the material can only convert 5% of the suns energy into electrical energy, the amount of the solar spectrum photovoltaic cells can absorb is called its band gap and TiO2 can only absorb ultraviolet irradiance. This project explored the possibility of using the process of doping to narrow TiO2's band gap thereby increasing the amount of the suns energy it can absorb to up to 50%. Doping is the process of is the process of introducing impurities into an extremely pure semiconductor (in this case TiO2) to change its electrical properties. The effectiveness of using such a technique for narrowing Titanium Dioxide's band gap was explored both through theoretical modeling and computer simulations. This doped TiO2 material was then fabricated in a laboratory as part of the project

This project has led to two applications for patents and a spin off company. Prof. Shao has also received a further £933,050 funding from the Technology Strategy Board to continue his research into low cost, highly efficient photovoltaic solar cells. As a result of the possible applications of the research two companies involved in the project, Kleentec International Plc and Crowberry Energy, are working on a related project with funding (£10,000) from Metric.

This document is the final report for the project titled 'Barriers to Commissioning Renewable Energy Projects'.

In June 2005 Land Use Consultants, in association with IT Power, were commissioned by Future Energy Solutions on behalf of the Renewables Advisory Board (RAB) to undertake research into factors delaying the commissioning of renewable energy projects in the post-planning approval phase. The research will inform future policy and practice necessary to meet the Government's target of 10% of our electricity needs from renewable sources by 2010.

The research focuses on barriers to commissioning onshore wind projects, given the potential for this resource to contribute to meeting the 2010 target. It also addresses offshore wind, biomass and hydro projects.

As per the brief set for the research, the methodology centred on statistical analysis to understand the extent of delays, and consultation with industry representatives to understand the causes of these delays. Twenty-four renewable energy developers and related organisations and eight financial institutions contributed to the research either by returning questionnaires or taking part in telephone interviews or focus groups, during the period June to September 2005. Questionnaire returns represent 58% of total approved megawatts (MW) of renewable energy capacity.

1. Introduction
2. Objectives and methodology
3. Delays in the post-planning period: the scale of the problem
4. Factors delaying commissioning of onshore wind schemes
5. Factors delaying commissioning of offshore wind schemes
6. Factors delaying commissioning of hydro schemes
7. Factors delaying commissioning of biomass schemes
8. Investor feedback summary
9. Future trends & prospects
10. Recommendations

1. The efficiency with which energy is used in buildings in England and Wales
2. Levels of emissions from such buildings that are emissions considered by the Secretary of State to contribute to climate change
3. The extent to which such buildings have their own facilities for generating energy
4. The extent to which materials used in constructing, or carrying out works in relation to, such buildings are recycled or re-used materials."

A further related reporting requirement is contained in Section 6(3) of the Act. Specifically this is "A report under this section must contain an estimate, as at the end of the period, of the number of dwellings in England and Wales".

The focus of this report is the requirements under Section 6(2)(e) and 6(3) - the reporting requirements under Section 6(2)(a) to (d) are addressed in a companion report1. As a first step, a set of Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) were proposed to provide initial benchmarks for the building stock in England & Wales in respect of items (i) to (iv) which can then be used to measure changes in performance during each two-year reporting period. The first reporting period covers November 2004 to November 2006.

To assess and improve the production from European biogas plants a specific targeted research or innovation project (Project no. 513949) entitled 'European Biogas Initiative to improve the yield of agricultural biogas plants' involved collating data from 13 biogas plants across Europe. Data was collected by four means; the use of periodic data from the biogas plant, weak-point analysis from each of the biogas plant operators; a questionnaire and a schematic of each plant. The information revealed that although the biogas plants were performing relatively well, with an average specific biogas yield 0.44 m3.methane.kg-1 VS and an average methane productivity of 1.25 m3.m3, there was considerable capacity to improve the performance of each of the biogas plants by a range of different means.

Economic comparison of these biogas plants across Europe was difficult. However, about 90% of the revenue was realised from electricity sold. The average specific capital expenditure for the 13 biogas plants was about 4,400 € per installed electric capacity (kW) or at 5% discount rate and 15 years economic life, 5.3 €-Cent per kWh of electricity. The average costs of feedstock was 5.6 €-Cent per kWh electricity produced. Also the average cost was 67 €-Cent per Nm³ of methane produced. The average total costs were 19.5 €-Cent per kWh electricity produced which was slightly above the price paid in most of the countries involved.

Development of improved means of both introducing and treating the feedstock was important for improved biogas yields. The hydrolysis of crops and crop residues could significantly reduce the HRT of some digesters to below 100 days. The type and mixture of feedstock also influenced the biogas yield and optimisation of the inputs would be of benefit. However each feedstock may ferment at different rate and/or require different conditions so process control could produce more biogas. High levels of manure required up to 4 times as much volume as other feedstocks to produce the same amount of biogas. There was up to 3 times the methane output per kg VS from different biogas plants. Some biogas plants had a variability (on standard deviation) of the specific methane yield as low as 7% others could be considered unstable with values over 100% of their mean values. Feedstocks were considered responsible for this variability, however such a range suggests that process monitoring and control would provide more stable biogas production and improved biogas yields. Monitoring fermentation parameters was limited to pH and volume of the various vessels for all biogas plants. Sensors did include means of measuring VFAs (36% of the total) and conductivity (18%) and redox potential (9%) for the 13 biogas plants. The outcome of this study will be used to identify demonstration projects at different biogas plants and research facilities.

What policies and other factors have driven change/transformation in heat delivery technologies, fuels and infrastructure? The Technology and Policy Assessment (TPA) Theme of UKERC have published a scoping note outlining their ongoing investigation into this topic.

Part of the Energy-PIECES project, this report was developed during a secondment at the Energy Savings Trust.

This document is a closedown report for the project titled 'Beyond Visual Line of Sight Aerial Inspection Vehicle'.

The scope of this 1½ year programme of work by VTOL Technologies is to develop an RPAS BVLOS specification that is endorsed by the CAA which can then be used to develop a RPAS BVLOS system (not part of this project). The project contains four stages:

1. BVLOS Requirements Gathering (6 months)
2. Developing the Simulation Environment (4 months)
3. Assessing Requirements (4 months)
4. An Industry Standard BVLOS Specification (4 months)

The objective of this project is to:

The Project delivered an electricity networks RPAS BVLOS requirements specification and a gas networks RPAS BVLOS requirements specification. The increase in TRL from 3 to 5 has been in line with the registration document as the subsystems have been demonstrated in a relevant environment; the simulation environment. A significant outcome of the project has been the interaction and engagement of the CAA, a vital necessity for any further development work in the RPAS BVLOS arena.

• All three case studies demonstrate that planting energy crops can increase the profitability of the land over a 23-year lifetime. Initial investment costs are expected to be paid back within the first six to seven years.
• When optimising the use of land across the farm, impacts on food production can be minimised or avoided. in two case studies, food impacts were minimised by using land which delivered poor arable yields, and by minimising the reduction in sheep numbers through higher stocking densities (the number of sheep per hectare). in the third case study, the crop was planted on unused land so no food production was displaced.
• Land which is less suitable for food production or grazing can be suited to energy crops as they can be successfully planted on poorer quality soils, and land which is more prone to waterlogging or weed problems. They are also suited to less accessible fields as they require less intensive management than arable crops.
• The farmers in these case studies chose to grow energy crops for a variety of reasons - making better use of difficult or underutilised land, diversifying income and reducing workload. In addition, all farmers cited the importance of obtaining secure fixed-term contracts with buyers in their decision making. This reinforces findings from previous ETI work on enabling UK biomass.
• Discussions with land agents suggest that land used to grow biomass crops should not be valued differently to other agricultural land, as land should be valued on its productive capacity. however, the specific price offered by a buyer will be affected by their objectives in buying the land and their understanding of bioenergy crops. The presence of a profitable contract for the crop and a willingness from the buyer to continue with bioenergy cropping may have a beneficial impact on the land value. If the buyer wishes to change the land use, is uncertain how to manage a bioenergy crop, or if there are limited market outlets for the crop, the land value may be lower than if it weren’t planted with a bioenergy crop.
• Qualitative evidence from the Miscanthus farmers indicate an increase in wildlife, particularly birds, since growing the crop. In the Short Rotation Coppice (SRC) Willow case study, the farm carried out an environmental impact assessment (EIA) before planting.

The two-day residential workshop brought together experts from the bioenergy community to explore bioenergy research opportunities which could benefit from financial support from the Carbon Trust using its new directed research approach.

This UKERC TPA working paper has been prepared to support the Committee on Climate Change’s advice to the UK government on the implications of the Paris Agreement on its long-term emissions reduction targets. In their recent reports, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change have highlighted that large-scale carbon dioxide removal (CDR), defined as any anthropogenic activity that results in the net removal of CO2 from the atmosphere, is critical to meeting the Paris Agreement target.

This review addresses two technological CDR solutions that have been demonstrated: bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) and direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS). The overarching questions which this review addresses, for both BECCS and DACCS, are:

1. What is the potential contribution that these technologies could make to CO2 removal and potentially CO2 emissions reductions to achieve net zero emissions in the UK?
2. What are the current and projected costs, globally and in the UK, of these technologies and how plausible are projected cost reductions (including evidence for the benefits to be derived from economies of scale/technology learning)?

The objective of this project is to develop a stable thermophilic micro-organism able to produce high yields of ethanol from a variety of hydrolysed lignocellulosic feedstocks which are cheap and readily available.

The cost of production of bioethanol for fuel is prohibitively high compared with gasoline, due to the expensive sugar or starch feedstock required, the low production rates and the inability of conventional yeast fermentation to utilise the pentose sugars found in plant biomass. Some yeasts have been engineered to utilise pentose sugars but these modified yeasts produce a significantly decreased, economically unviable, ethanol yield.

Thermophilic bacteria have tremendous potential in the production of ethanol. Their high temperature fermentations offer reduced cooling costs, direct recovery of ethanol from the hot culture and high productivities, because of high growth rates and yields. This project aims to manipulate such thermophilic organisms to eliminate the organic acid production and maximise ethanol formation.

The aim of this project was to further develop micro turbine indirect firing and to develop this into a biomass generator, building on the success of the previous project. The system was redesigned and rebuilt using the experience gained and the recommendations reported in our last project. The efficiency, maintenance and safety of the system was improved through this development project.

The Specific aims were:

The main achievements of these projects are:

1. Introduction
2. Re-evaluation and Design
3. Initial Testing
4. Long Term Testing
5. Results and Discussion
6. Conclusions
7. Recommendations
8. Acknowledgements

• Despite new entrants, the supply chain is very fragamented.
• There are a number of planned network logistics investments which have the potential to benefit the sector.
• There are lessons that can be learned from established supply chains in other comparable industries
• Confidence in the sector is much needed to attract further investment in supporting infrastructure and supply chain synergies.
• Rail is vital to the UK’s economic prosperity. Rail links with ports and airports are essential to support the transportation of goods
• The extent to which rail transport and freight specifically will be a constraint to the biomass logistics supply chain is dependent upon a range of factors; primarily the Government’s energy policy on biomass, willingness of the Government to protect capacity and promote rail freight growth on the network, the extent to which biomass will replace coal and the cost efficiency of using imported fuel sources and rail haulage, as opposed to local fuel supplies and other transport modes

• ensure a wider, more detailed representation of possible bioenergy pathways
• raise the overall data quality and level of confidence in the model
• improve the user interface
• increase the options for use cases and scenarios

• D3.3: Parameterised sub-system models
• D3.4: Model requirements and specifications and modelling strategy
• D3.5: Model and sub-model user documentation

• T6 denotes dedicated biomass oxy-firing combustion
• T7 Biomass combustion, with CO₂ capture by post-combustion carbonate looping
• T8 Dedicated biomass chemical-looping-combustion using a solid oxygen carrier

This paper explores the sensitivity of energy system decarbonisation pathways to the role of afforestation and reduced energy demands�as a means to lessen reliance on carbon dioxide removal.�

Large uncertainties surround the viability of carbon dioxide removal

The stringency of climate targets set out in the Paris Agreement has placed strong emphasis on the role of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) over this century. However, there are large uncertainties around the technical and economic viability and the sustainability of large-scale CDR options. These uncertainties have prompted further consideration of the role of bioenergy in decarbonisation pathways and the potential land-use trade-offs between energy crops and afforestation. The interest in afforestation is motivated by its potential as an alternative to large-scale bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), with its arguably lower risk supply chains, and multiple co-benefits. Furthermore, doubt over the viability of large-scale CDR has prompted a renewed examination of the extent to which their need can be offset by lowering energy demands.

Testing the impacts of reduced demands and afforestation

A global optimisation model (TIAM-UCL) was used to examine decarbonisation pathways for the global energy system. Based on core assumptions, where energy demands follow business as usual trends and degraded land is used for energy crops, the model was unable to find a solution for a 1.5�C target. Over the period 2020-2100, the carbon budget of GtCO₂ is exceeded by 332 GtCO₂.

Scenarios where also run to examine how the least-cost decarbonisation pathway changes if i) energy demands are significantly reduced, or ii) degraded land is used for large-scale afforestation instead of energy crops. Each option on its own reduced the CO₂ budget exceedance but both were required to allow the model to meet the 1.5�C target.

Impacts on the energy system

Under the 2�C target, afforestation reduced the reliance on BECCS by 60%. Under the 1.5�C target, the system still used all of the biomass available, as the target is so ambitious. When the energy demands were lower, the effect of afforestation on biomass use was dependent on the climate target. Under the 2�C target, less biomass was used across all economic sectors, whereas under the stringent 1.5�C target, all the available wood and crop biomass was exploited, but its use shifted away from the production of liquid fuels towards use in power generation.

Lowering energy service demands had a larger effect on the energy mix than large-scale afforestation. This is because demands are lowered differently across the sectors according to their economic drivers. However, afforestation had a bigger impact on the marginal cost of climate change mitigation, as it substantially decreases the scale and pace of change required by the energy system, especially in the 2�C case.

Given its key role, afforestation should be considered more in deep decarbonisation scenarios, as should lower demand scenarios.

Lowering energy demand and introducing large-scale afforestation both present significant challenges and opportunities. Further work should focus on factors affecting the carbon sequestration potential of afforestation, along with an interdisciplinary research agenda on the scope for large scale energy demand reduction. Research on the social, technical and economic factors that affect the potential for converting abandoned agricultural land to energy crops or new forest would be beneficial. An interdisciplinary research agenda is needed that brings together techno-economic modelling and qualitative scenario development with research on the social change that could lead to large reductions in energy demand

Networks want to facilitate and encourage new sources of gas to enter our networks that meet quality standards, and where necessary adapt quality standards to facilitate the new sources of supply and minimise investment on major infrastructure. At present, produces have no experience or best practice guide to help them through the installation and management of biogas connections. Networks have a variety of policies and procedures to undertake entry connections but these are limited to the transmission system. As a result of this project with NWL documented guides will be produced as each side goes through installation process. A specialist gas consultant will be employed over the duration of the project to capture all the learning and experiences from a producers and network perspective and document these stages including:

The objectives of this project where:

1. To accelerate progression of the Howden project supporting with gas specific expertise
2. To liaise between NWL and NGN to ensure hurdles are overcome quickly and NGN's interests are maintained
3. To develop a user guide to bio-methane injection

To provide the Networks and suppliers/operators of waste treatment biomethane plants with the first user guide and best practice recommendations for connection to the gas distribution network with the requirements of that plant in relation to minimum/maximum connection, gas odourisation, dewpoint, gas quality measurement etc. To allow consistency across the gas industry for the benefit of suppliers/operators of biomethane installations and gas distribution network operators.

The Scope of the Project is intended to investigate the potential future option available for Black Start by looking at all possible technologies available and including but not limited to the following areas for consideration:

1. Future Energy Scenarios - 2020
2. Technical - Energisation Scenarios
3. Technical Requirements
4. International benchmarking
5. Additional system benefits of approaches
6. Regulatory and commercial arrangements

The objective of this project is to complete a desktop study to investigate the potential of alternative Black Start options for the future. In particular to Identify credible Alternative approaches for the procurement of Black Start in GB in the future considering both Technical and Commercial /Regulatory frameworks. This is a short initial study which may lead to further detailed studies on specific preferred options.

The conclusions from the work undertaken are as follows:

It is recommended that some further studies and development work are undertaken with engagement with DNOs to further investigate the potential use of smaller scale plant for Black Start into the future. NGET are planning to follow up on the above outcomes as detailed in Next Steps.

This Meeting Report gives an overview of the 'Breaking the Deadlock in Climate�Change Communication' event, which was held on�12 March 2014 at the Church House Conference Centre.

This briefing paper examines how renewables in Scotland are shaped by decisions taken by the Scottish Government, the UK Government and the EU. Drawing on interviews with stakeholders, it explores the potential impact of Brexit on Scottish renewables.

Brexit has the potential to disrupt this relatively supportive policy environment in three ways in regulatory and policy frameworks governing renewable energy; access to EU funding streams; and trade in energy and related goods and services.

Our briefing identifies varying levels of concern among key stakeholders in Scotland. Many expect policy continuity, irrespective of the future UK-EU relationship. There is more concern about access to research and project funding, and future research and development collaboration, especially for more innovative renewable technologies. The UK will become a third country forthe purposes of EU funding streams, able to participate, but not lead on renewables projects, and there is scepticism about whether lost EU funding streams will be replaced at domestic levels.

While there is no real risk of being unable to access European markets even in a No-Deal Brexit scenario, trade in both energy and related products and services could become more difficult and more expensive affecting both the import of specialist labour and kit from the EU and the export of knowledge-based services. Scotlands attractiveness for inward investment may also be affected.

This Working Paper presents key findings from research conducted within the Energy and Environment theme since 2009, when the second phase of UKERC activity began. Research within this theme has investigated the impacts associated with a range of marine and land-based energy production and greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation technologies including bioenergy, wind, tidal, gas, nuclear and carbon capture and storage (CCS). The carbon and water footprints of these technologies have been investigated as have their social, economic and environmental impacts and their impacts on terrestrial and marine ecosystem services.

This briefing note summarises initial findings from qualitative research undertaken as part of a major project investigating public values, attitudes and views on whole energy system change.

A key objective of the project is to identify degrees of public acceptability relating to various aspects of whole energy system transformation and the trade-offs inherent in such transitions. This research has relevance as a research evidence base for informing development of future energy systems, as well as for understanding processes of and potential obstacles to delivery of such transitions.

The Faraday Institution and the Department for International Development (DfID) commissioned consultants Vivid Economics to perform a rapid market and technology assessment of storage in weak and off-grid contexts in developing countries, to which this Insight refers.

• This deliverable is number 2 of 7 in Work Package 2.
• It presents the initial approach to the costing methodology for thermal efficiency improvements to be employed by the project and incorporated into the computer model being developed.
• Accurate cost information for retrofit interventions is key to ensuring the identification and development of the optimum solutions for each housing archetype previously identified in deliverable D2.1.
• Costs of two types are considered:
  • Unit costs
  • Other fixed costs
• Costs are input for:
  • Loft insulation
  • Cavity wall insulation
  • Hot water tank insulation
  • Floor insulation
  • Replacement windows

• Pre-1919 detached houses
• Pre-1919 mid-terraced houses
• Pre-1919 converted flats
• 1919-1944 semi detached houses
• 1945-1964 semi detached houses