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Hydrogen Turbines Follow On - CCS and H2 Dispatch modelling - Scenarios 1 & 2 Results Pack


Citation Baringa Partners LLP Hydrogen Turbines Follow On - CCS and H2 Dispatch modelling - Scenarios 1 & 2 Results Pack, ETI, 2017. https://doi.org/10.5286/UKERC.EDC.000872.
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Author(s) Baringa Partners LLP
Project partner(s) Baringa Partners LLP
Publisher ETI
DOI https://doi.org/10.5286/UKERC.EDC.000872
Download AdHoc_CCS_CC1011_7.pdf document type
Abstract Various scenarios for the UK’s power fleet composition in 2030 and 2040 were developed. Dispatch modelling in Plexos was carried out by Baringa on these fleets to investigate the role gas-fed plants might have in future. This includes the ability to study load factors, stop/starts etc., and together with concomitant pricing, provide a picture of investment remuneration. The effect of key drivers is studied e.g. gas price

This slide set summarises the results for scenarios 1 and 2, along with the assumptions underlying the modelling, and these will be used to inform the final S3 market runs which will then be the basis of the subsequent asset valuation analysis

Key conclusions are
  • Plant operation
    • H2 turbine is highly sensitive to gas and carbon prices (more so to gas price)
    • CCGT CCS generation is far less sensitive and provides baseload power most of the time across the scenarios tested
    • Note the £35.1/tCO2 and 7.7 £/GJ case has an output subsidy on CCS hence load factor is slightly higher
  • Power prices
    • ESME fleet capacity margin is tight
    • CM clearing price cap hit and significant scarcity/uplift in wholesale prices
    • Subsidies for low carbon generation not having material impact on power prices (limited impact on CCGT CCS LF)
  • Choice of final wholesale market scenario and ESME fleet is important as this will form the basis for asset valuation
    • Drives asset dispatch against market prices
    • Impacts CM clearing price (combination of de-rated capacity and revenues from wholesale market impacting bids)
    • Potential changes to ESME run for scenario 3, before re-running PLEXOS
  • Suggest usingBaringa commodity prices in ESME (based on recent IEA WEO publication) as more recent than ESME
    • Continue to use ESME output carbon price, but noting that real 2030 policy incentive could be significantly lower
  • Initial CM analysis based on ESME fleet suggests capacity is ‘too tight’ pushing up CM clearing and wholesale prices, need to revisit peak margin constraint in ESME to ensure more capacity is built –two parts to this:
    • De-rating factors in ESME more optimistic compared to GB CM factors (except for interconnectors), but haven’t been updated for a while, question about whether to use BEIS CM numbers
    • Reserve margin constraint currently 15% above peak demand, but this needs to covers a range of factors which may not all be included or have different underlying assumptions
      • Current constraint only against end-use demand -needs to include distribution/transmission losses ~6.5%-
      • Account for mark-up between ESME timeslice blocks to ½ hour peak (~7% delta in current scenarios)
      • Actual reserve margin target (3.4% current CM target, although this may change in future)
      • Largest infeed loss (currently ~900MW but expected to increase to e.g. 1600 with new nuclear)
  • Timescales
    • Need to have fully finalised scenario 3 wholesale market run (potentially different spot years of same mix) by early in w/c 20th to ensure sufficient time for asset analysis, but ideally bring this forward
Associated Project(s) ETI-CC1011: Salt Cavern Appraisal for Hydrogen Power Generation Systems
Associated Dataset(s) No associated datasets
Associated Publication(s)

Hydrogen Turbines Follow On - A Review of Selected New CO2 Capture Technologies

Hydrogen Turbines Follow On - Assessment of LMS 100 Heat Management Options and Techno-Economic Parameters of Gas Turbine Power Plants

Hydrogen Turbines Follow On - CCS and H2 Dispatch modelling - Market and asset modelling results for Scenario 3 and Baringa Reference Case

Hydrogen Turbines Follow On - CCS and H2 Dispatch modelling - Scenarios 3 & 4 Results Spreadsheet

Hydrogen Turbines Follow On - CCS and H2 GT Dispatch modelling scenario 1 and 2 results spreadsheet

Hydrogen Turbines Follow On - Power Sector CCS and H2 Turbine Asset Modelling - Central Decarb market modelling results

Hydrogen Turbines Follow On - Review of Gas Turbines and their Ability to use Hydrogen-Containing Fuel Gas

Hydrogen Turbines Follow On - Salt Cavern Appraisal for Hydrogen and Gas Storage - Appendices

Hydrogen Turbines Follow On - Salt Cavern Appraisal for Hydrogen and Gas Storage - Final Report

Hydrogen Turbines Follow On - Scenario 1,2 and 3 Results Spreadsheet: Role of Gas/H2 in the GB power sector - initial analysis

Hydrogen Turbines Follow On - Scenario 10 Results Pack - Cost-optimal pathways to decarbonising the GB power sector - Final Report

Hydrogen Turbines Follow On - Scenario 10 Results Spreadsheet - GB Capacity Mix Optimisation - Results

Hydrogen Turbines Follow On - Scenario 5 Results Pack - Power sector CCS and H2 Turbine Asset Modelling

Hydrogen Turbines Follow On - Scenario 5 Results Spreadsheet

Hydrogen Turbines Follow On - Scenarios 1,2 and 3 Results Pack Report - The role of Gas/H2 in the GB power sector - initial analysis