Materials Availability, Working paper II: Potential constraints to the future low-carbon economy: Batteries, Magnets and Materials.

The paper examines demand for lithium and neodymium from the EV industry. Lithium is used in Li-Ion EV batteries and neodymium is used in permanent magnets in electric motors and wind turbine generators. Global demand scenarios for EVs vary widely, though all anticipate a considerable growth in the EV market over the coming decades, driven largely by decarbonisation goals.

The paper then examines wind turbines, another low carbon use of neodymium. Again global demand for wind turbines and estimates of future material intensity are key to understanding future demand. It is also important to estimate the number of turbines using permanent magnet designs, since generators without permanent magnets are in common use. Decarbonisation goals are predicted to drive demand for wind turbines in the future, with several studies agreeing that future manufacturing of turbines will increase significantly. Based on this analysis, demand for neodymium from wind turbines could be between 600 and 6,000 tonnes per year by 2050.