UKERC Energy Strategy Under Uncertainties : Policy Making under Uncertainty in the Demand for Electric Vehicles (Working Paper)

The introduction of Electric Vehicles (EVs) into the passenger vehicle market has, in recent years, become viewed as a primary solution to the significant carbon emissions attributed to personal mobility. Moreover, EVs offer a means by which energy diversification and efficiency can be improved compared to the current system which is dominated by internal combustion engines powered by oil based fuels. The UK and EU Governments have played an active role in steering the development and market introduction of EVs. Policies have been formulated and introduced to engage the consumer by raising awareness of these alternative options, incentivise adoption through fiscal measures and establishing the necessary infrastructure. However, a great deal of uncertainty remains regarding the effectiveness of these policies and the viability of the EV technology in the mainstream automotive market.This paper investigates the prevalence of uncertainty concerning demand for EVs. This is achieved through the application of a conceptual framework which assesses the locations of uncertainty. UK and EU Government policy documents are assessed through a rapid evidence review alongside contributions from academia to determine how uncertainty has been reduced.

This assessment offers insights to decision makers in this area by evaluating the work done to date through a landscape analysis. Results from the analysis identified six different locations of uncertainty covering (1) consumer, (2) policy, (3) infrastructure, (4) technical, (5) economic and (6) social.