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IVUGER Report: Domestic Air Conditioning in 2050

Citation Crawley, J., Ogunrin, S., Taneja, S., Vorushlyo, I. and Wang, X. IVUGER Report: Domestic Air Conditioning in 2050. UKERC. 2020. (none).
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Author(s) Crawley, J., Ogunrin, S., Taneja, S., Vorushlyo, I. and Wang, X.
Publisher UKERC
Download WSNF_IVUGER-Report_Oct-2020.pdf document type
UKERC Report Number n/a
DOI (none)
Abstract In this report we summarise the findings from our project delivered as part of the Whole Systems Networking Fund.
Climate change has caused rising temperatures worldwide, including hotter summers in the UK, and in years to come households may be expected to start installing air conditioning. Currently, most UK building decarbonisation research focuses on creating sustainable and affordable heating solutions, neglecting cooling altogether. Notable unknowns are: an informed estimate of the prevalence of air conditioning, and the associated energy and CO2 impacts. This project aimed to provide a first estimate of the effect of uptake of domestic air conditioning on the national grid in 2050. We then considered how this maps onto current/predicted electricity demand and availability of renewable generation. Our approach was threefold:
  1. Construction of a set of socio-technical scenarios of air conditioning uptake,
  2. Dynamic building simulation to estimate half hourly power consumption of air conditioning in archetypal single buildings,
  3. Addition of air conditioning demand to existing prediction of 2050 national grid demand (National Grid Two Degrees 2050 scenario).