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| Reference Number | NIA2_NGET0098 | |
| Title | Framework for Risk Analysis and Modelling of Events (FRAME II) | |
| Status | Completed | |
| Energy Categories | Other Cross-Cutting Technologies or Research (Energy system analysis) 25%; Other Power and Storage Technologies (Electricity transmission and distribution) 50%; Other Cross-Cutting Technologies or Research (Environmental, social and economic impacts) 25%; |
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| Research Types | Applied Research and Development 100% | |
| Science and Technology Fields | SOCIAL SCIENCES (Business and Management Studies) 20%; ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY (Electrical and Electronic Engineering) 60%; ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES (Earth Systems and Environmental Sciences) 20%; |
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| UKERC Cross Cutting Characterisation | Not Cross-cutting 100% | |
| Principal Investigator |
Project Contact National Grid Electricity Transmission |
|
| Award Type | Network Innovation Allowance | |
| Funding Source | Ofgem | |
| Start Date | 01 August 2025 | |
| End Date | 30 November 2025 | |
| Duration | ENA months | |
| Total Grant Value | £680,785 | |
| Industrial Sectors | Power | |
| Region | London | |
| Programme | Network Innovation Allowance | |
| Investigators | Principal Investigator | Project Contact , National Grid Electricity Transmission |
| Web Site | https://smarter.energynetworks.org/projects/NIA2_NGET0098 |
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| Objectives | This is a formal request to initiate Phase 2 of the FRAME project. Phase 1 of the project (FRAME I) successfully delivered an interactive POC web application that displays key metrics for the NGET Network Resilience Risk Tool. The following outputs were achieved in Phase 1:Web application that visualises substation risk scores.Two engine models that uses a combination of Machine Learning (ML) and rule-based resilience score weightings to derive the composite substation risk score.The following outlines the proposed method for Phase 2.FRAME (FRAME II) will deliver Phase 2 an application displaying key metrics for the NGET Network Resilience Risk Tool. FRAME II will build on the POC developed in Phase 1 by undertaking the following:Enhancing the modelling methodology by refining the current approach.Investigating additional features to improve technical limitation prediction accuracy and utilising new identified datasets to further enhance risk score modelling.Adding consequence of failure as a quantifiable metric, to be used in conjunction with technical limitation predictions.As described in Phase 1, the product will adhere to the following standards:Data Quality Statement (DQS): The project will be delivered under the NIA framework in line with OFGEM, ENA and NGET internal policy. Data produced as part of this project will be subject to quality assurance to ensure that the information produced with each deliverable is accurate to the best of our knowledge and sources of information are appropriately documented. All deliverables and project outputs will be stored on our internal SharePoint platform ensuring backup and version management. Relevant project documentation and reports will also be made available on the ENA Smarter Networks Portal and dissemination material will be shared with the relevant stakeholders.Measurement Quality Statement (MQS): The methodology used in this project will be subject to our suppliers own quality assurance regime. Quality assurance processes and the source of data, measurement processes and equipment as well as data processing will be clearly documented and verifiable. The measurements, designs and economic assessments will also be clearly documented in the relevant deliverables and final project report and will be made available for review.The project will operate at Technology Readiness Level (TRL) 78 and has been structured into three Work Packages. Phase 1, which ran for 3.5 months from February to May 2025, focused on the development of a POC, and Phase 2, focused on refining the modelling approach and taking new data into account, which will run from August 2025 to December 2025.Medium Risk TRL Steps = 3 (7-8 TRL, 2 steps)Cost = 3 (614k)Suppliers = 1 (1 supplier)Data Assumption = 1 (data supplied by suppliers and NGET for analysis)Risk Assessment Methodology FRAME II will build on the POC developed in Phase 1, which utilised use Machine Learning (ML) to model asset and overall substation risk scores, delivering an interactive web application thats displays the modelling results as well as other key metrics. This next phase will consist of three Work Packages (WPs) and will be delivered over four months, focussing on incorporating additional datasets while refining and expanding the modelling capabilities for both assets and overall substation scoring.Work Package 1: Enhance the modelling methodology by refining the current approach - investigating additional features to improve technical limitation prediction accuracy for the previously modelled assets, utilising datasets such as alarm, oil sampling, climate and other identified data. In addition, the scope of the modelling will include investigating expanding to other assets such as Overhead Lines and Delayed Auto Reclose (DARs).Work Package 2: Add consequence of failure as a metric, supporting informed prioritisation of asset maintenance use generation, demand, site sensitivity and other data to calculate the impact value for a substation, allowing them to be ranked by potential loss of supply impact.Work Package 3: FRAME II comprehensive Methodology Statement that outlines the approach used to derive the composite substation risk score as well as detailed solution documentation, including asset and substation risk score extracts and other relevant artefacts such as the developed code for both the solution and the ML models. Handover sessions with appropriate NGET team members conducted.Milestones:DescriptionUpdated data model, incorporating new datasetsM1: New dataset receipt, investigation and evaluation for quality, timelines covered, ability to map to relevant datasets and other features.Modelling iteration with additional datasets, including investigations for new asset classes.M2: Initial Exploratory Data Analysis of datasets completed, including examinations for outliers, patterns and feature relationships.M3: Iteration of modelling using weather/oil/alarm and other data.M4: Consequence of failure modelling initial rules defined.FRAME II completionM5: Substation Resilience Score modelling refined to include additional features focused on impact of supply loss.M6: Deploying and testing the model; Finalised Substation Resilience ScoreM7: NGET Risk Tool Pre environment updated with latest changesM8: Training sessions conducted with NGET chosen appropriate team members and handover material provided.M9: FRAME II Methodology Statement (Final Report) provided. The key objective of the FRAME project is to demonstrate the ability to predict asset technical limitations in the form of risk scores and have a centralised view of substation resilience risk scores to highlight network risk areas for decision making. FRAME will enhance the visualisation of network resilience by combining multiple data sources and developing a risk scoring framework along with a holistic map view. This will facilitate prompt issue identification and enable quicker decision making during live events and extreme weather conditions. | |
| Abstract | The expanding and interconnected electricity network poses challenges for National Grid Electricity Transmission (NGET) in monitoring and assessing network resilience. Currently, tracking resilience involves multiple metrics on separate Power BI pages, making it difficult to view overall resilience and hindering timely decision-making during storms or major events. This fragmented approach can lead to suboptimal maintenance and repair decisions. To address these challenges, the proposed project aims to incorporate probabilistic risk analysis to further improve resilience assessments, enhance decision-making accuracy using risk scores, and identify weak areas in the network. Additionally, simplify monitoring through a holistic map view. Ultimately, the project seeks to improve network resilience by streamlining risk identification and establishing minimum resilience levels for substations. FRAME II will be the second phase following the Proof-of-Concept (POC) phase in NIA2_NGET0075 Framework for Risk Analysis and Modelling of Events (FRAME I) . | |
| Data | No related datasets |
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| Projects | No related projects |
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| Publications | No related publications |
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| Added to Database | 24/04/26 | |
