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Projects: Projects for Investigator
Reference Number NIA_SSEN_0063
Title VFES - Vulnerability Future Energy Scenarios
Status Completed
Energy Categories Other Cross-Cutting Technologies or Research(Demographics) 40%;
Other Cross-Cutting Technologies or Research(Energy system analysis) 30%;
Other Power and Storage Technologies(Electricity transmission and distribution) 30%;
Research Types Applied Research and Development 100%
Science and Technology Fields ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY (Electrical and Electronic Engineering) 100%
UKERC Cross Cutting Characterisation Sociological economical and environmental impact of energy (Other sociological economical and environmental impact of energy) 50%;
Sociological economical and environmental impact of energy (Consumer attitudes and behaviour) 50%;
Principal Investigator Project Contact
No email address given
Scottish Hydro Electric Power Distribution plc (SHEPD)
Award Type Network Innovation Allowance
Funding Source Ofgem
Start Date 01 August 2022
End Date 30 April 2023
Duration ENA months
Total Grant Value £144,000
Industrial Sectors Power
Region Scotland
Programme Network Innovation Allowance
Investigators Principal Investigator Project Contact , Scottish Hydro Electric Power Distribution plc (SHEPD) (100.000%)
  Other Investigator Project Contact , Scottish Hydro Electric Power Distribution plc (SHEPD) (100.000%)
  Industrial Collaborator Project Contact , Scottish and Southern Energy plc (0.000%)
Web Site https://smarter.energynetworks.org/projects/NIA_SSEN_0063
Objectives Ensuring a fair, inclusive and safe transition to net zero requires forethought and strategic planning.Project VFES will bring together academia, data, and expert knowledge, triangulating these three approaches to develop a robust methodology. The project will test for the first time if combining them will give a clearer, and more reliable, forecast of Vulnerability Future Energy Scenarios which can be used to provide insights to allow for appropriate solutions to be developed.The three methods are:- Foresighting – Provided by Imperial College London (ICL)- Machine Learning – Provided by The Smith Institute- Expert Validation - Provided by policy experts at National Energy ActionFurther detail is below in 2.3, Scope. VFES statistics, foresight and predictions will be modelled within both SSEN regions. The findings will be shared in a format which can be replicated by other DNOs. As the findings will relate to people, communities, and lifestyle changes, as opposed to network assets and distribution equipment, the methodology and principles for VFES should be replicable for other industries.In scope will be:- working with academia to use tried and tested foresighting techniques for assessing potential changes to communities and the lifestyles of consumers which could affect their energy usage patterns and potentially greater reliance on electricity giving rise to new forms of vulnerability- partnering with data analytics, mathematicians, and machine learning experts to spot trends in consumer vulnerability data and PSR statistics using innovative machine learning technology to better forecast where vulnerability is likely to occur- reviewing of the findings and suggestions uncovered during the project and validating reportable outcomes- a report detailing the learnings and opportunities for further insight to enable more robust vulnerability forecasting The objectives of the VFES project are to explore how the use of new foresighting techniques, along with data analytics and expert validation can be used to identity and forecast consumers in vulnerable situations as we move toward net zero.The project will produce a report detailing how far, and how accurately, foresighting and machine learning can predict network requirements based on customer, community, and wider societal factors.
Abstract The move to net zero will make customers ever more dependent on a secure, affordable, and reliable electrical supply. There is greater potential to impact customers in vulnerable situations as well as to inadvertently create new forms of vulnerability. Current Distribution Future Energy Scenarios (DFES) dont effectively take consumer vulnerability into account. Vulnerability Future Energy Scenarios (VFES) aims to better understand potential changes and impacts. VFES will explore a triangulated method using innovative forecasting techniques which, if successful, could better inform operational practises. It may also allow better informed investment planning which takes vulnerability into account and wont leave vulnerable customers and communities behind.
Publications (none)
Final Report (none)
Added to Database 14/10/22