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Projects: Projects for Investigator
Reference Number ENA_10060460
Title Scenarios for Extreme Events
Status Completed
Energy Categories Other Power and Storage Technologies(Electricity transmission and distribution) 100%;
Research Types Applied Research and Development 100%
Science and Technology Fields ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY (Electrical and Electronic Engineering) 100%
UKERC Cross Cutting Characterisation Not Cross-cutting 100%
Principal Investigator Project Contact
No email address given
National Grid plc
Award Type Network Innovation Allowance
Funding Source Ofgem
Start Date 01 April 2023
End Date 01 July 2023
Duration 3 months
Total Grant Value £179,559
Industrial Sectors Power
Region London
Investigators Principal Investigator Project Contact , National Grid plc (100.000%)
  Industrial Collaborator Project Contact , Cadent Gas (0.000%)
Web Site https://smarter.energynetworks.org/projects/10060460
Abstract "Challenge:""Black swan"" events are low-probability, high-impact events which can have serious repercussions. Currently, for energy networks, these events are addressed as they arise and are not fully considered in strategic decision-making. Major global events over the past few years (COVID, war, economic downturn) have highlighted limitations of this reactive approach: the whole system impacts of, and interactions between, black swan events are not systematically captured. This limits future operational resilience.Moreover, the climate emergency impacts the GB energy system through increasingly challenging operating conditions (e.g. extreme weather events), while the need for decarbonisation drives system diversification (e.g. different generation types; increased electrification; transitioning from natural gas).Solution:A methodology is required to quantify the impact of black swan events, particularly as energy system operation evolves. Novel use of probabilistic modelling will form a key part of the methodology, to account for high levels of uncertainty around such events. This approach builds on emerging thinking in this area from industries where risk management and costing of extreme events is paramount to that industrys success, e.g. insurance, banking. It will also use emerging datasets on infrastructure resilience and weather and climate patterns collated by academia and the Met Office.Scope:This project meets the Innovation Challenge of ""Improving energy system resilience and robustness"", by improving the approach to the identification and analysis of extreme events and their impacts on the GB energy system.The project output is anticipated to be a decision-making framework, supported by scenario modelling capabilities to allow evaluation of, and build resilience against, future black swan events. This capability would be developed and integrated into business as usual (BAU) activities, including system planning and Future Energy Scenario (FES) work.Users:Users of the innovation would be the System Operator and Networks operational and planning teams, who would use the project outputs to better understand and pre-empt the impact of extreme events on the grid and wider energy system.Project Team:NGESO will lead the project, collaborating with:Electricity network operators: NGED, SSEN Transmission, SSEN Distribution.Gas network operators: NGGT and Cadent Gas.Lloyds of London - insurance costing and risk management experts.University of Strathclyde - research partner and expert in electrical systems innovation.Met Office - climate data and modelling experts.Frazer-Nash Consultancy - probabilistic modelling and systems engineering expertsEnergy Emergencies Executive Committee - management of future power disruption event"
Publications (none)
Final Report (none)
Added to Database 01/11/23