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Projects: Projects for Investigator
Reference Number NIA_NGSO0023
Title Mapping the Impacts and Visualization of Risks of extreme weather on system operation (MIVOR)
Status Completed
Energy Categories Other Power and Storage Technologies(Electricity transmission and distribution) 50%;
Other Cross-Cutting Technologies or Research(Environmental, social and economic impacts) 50%;
Research Types Applied Research and Development 100%
Science and Technology Fields PHYSICAL SCIENCES AND MATHEMATICS (Computer Science and Informatics) 10%;
ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY (Electrical and Electronic Engineering) 40%;
ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES (Earth Systems and Environmental Sciences) 50%;
UKERC Cross Cutting Characterisation Not Cross-cutting 100%
Principal Investigator Project Contact
No email address given
National Grid plc
Award Type Network Innovation Allowance
Funding Source Ofgem
Start Date 01 March 2020
End Date 01 June 2021
Duration ENA months
Total Grant Value £245,000
Industrial Sectors Power
Region London
Programme Network Innovation Allowance
Investigators Principal Investigator Project Contact , National Grid plc (100.000%)
  Industrial Collaborator Project Contact , National Grid plc (0.000%)
Web Site https://smarter.energynetworks.org/projects/NIA_NGSO0023
Objectives This project will evaluate the long-term impacts of extreme weather up to 2050 in GB. The key outputs will be a dataset and map that highlight: total risk to assets and SO operations through prevalence of extreme weather events both singly and in combination through wind, precipitation and heat damage and performance functions for transmission assets (and distribution and generation assets) This will be delivered through several work packages: WP1: Using data from a range of sources including National Grid ET and the Met Office, create the definition of each extreme event within temperature, wind and precipitation, taking into account damage limits per event type and infrastructure type.WP2: Model the key power system assets performance and behaviors under various extreme weather including wind and solar power output and heating and cooling demand growth patterns.WP3: Identify the correlation of various extreme weather events to understand the potential of coincident extreme events to exaggerate the consequences on system operation. WP4: Analyse GB in a 25km by 25km grid to identify the risks of extreme events including the probability of damage thresholds being reached and variations in renewable generation and demand. WP5: Develop a map to visulaise the risks, probabilities, and consequences in each grid square. The evidence of climate change is becoming more evident in the UK, for example, the UK Climate Projections 2018 (UKCP18) project found that: average sea level has already risen by around 16cm in the last 100 years and could increase by 8 to 115cm by the end of the 21st century (compared to the 1981-2000 average) depending on location and future greenhouse gas emissions average temperatures in England over the last decade (2008-2017) were around 0.8°C higher than they were in the 1970s and 1°C higher than pre-industrial times (1850-1900) the number of extremely wet days are increasing As we transition to a highly renewable electricity generation mix, incorporating growing wind and solar power capacities, it is becoming increasingly important to understand the potential implications of extreme weather events on energy demand and generation in the UK. While renewable generation is highly dependent on meteorological conditions, it is also recognised that energy demand will change significantly. Climate change studies indicate, with high confidence, that the UK climate will become increasingly warm. This may reduce heating demand, and hence the severity of winter-time peak residual demand events, but increase summer-time cooling demand, highlighting the importance of considering climate change in future energy system planning. Our understanding of how an energy system based on a high level of renewables could perform during extreme weather events associated with a changing climate needs to expand rapidly. This project will evaluate the long-term impacts of extreme weather up to 2050 in GB, highlighting the risk to assets and system operation. The models developed in the course of the project will identify damage and performance functions for transmission, distribution and generation assets and forecast the cumulative effects of extreme wind, precipitation and heat events. A greater understanding of extreme weather impacts will facilitate system operation, reducing system balancing and constraint management costs, and enabling planning for resilience to potential climate risks. This project will evaluate the impacts of extreme weather events on system operation up to 2050 and produce a map demonstrating the risks, probabilities, and consequences of such events at a 25km grid level of GB.
Abstract The evidence of climate change is becoming apparent in the UK, particularly in the increasing frequency of “extreme” weather events. These events differ significantly from normal patterns, are associated with severe impacts and are historically infrequent. A number of extreme weather events experienced in the last decade in the UK have been attributed to climate change including include floods, heatwaves and droughts.The effect of these events on electricity system operation is currently unclear. The magnitude of the impact of these events may be exacerbated by factors including aging infrastructure and an increasing reliance on weather-dependent renewable energy sources as we move to a net zero energy system. This may lead to higher operational costs and complexities for system operation.
Publications (none)
Final Report (none)
Added to Database 02/11/22