MISTRAL: Multi-scale Infrastructure Systems Analytics

Completed

Other Cross-Cutting Technologies or Research(Energy system analysis)
Not Energy Related
Other Cross-Cutting Technologies or Research(Environmental, social and economic impacts)

Basic and strategic applied research

PHYSICAL SCIENCES AND MATHEMATICS (Applied Mathematics)
ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY (Electrical and Electronic Engineering)
ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY (General Engineering and Mineral & Mining Engineering)
ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY (Mechanical, Aeronautical and Manufacturing Engineering)
SOCIAL SCIENCES (Economics and Econometrics)
SOCIAL SCIENCES (Town and Country Planning)
SOCIAL SCIENCES (Politics and International Studies)

Systems Analysis related to energy R&D (Other Systems Analysis)

Professor J Hall
Environmental Change Institute
University of Oxford

Standard

EPSRC

11 February 2016

31 May 2021

64 months

£5,387,529

Civil eng. & built environment

South East

NC : Engineering

Professor J Hall, Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford

Dr S Barr, Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Newcastle University
Professor M Birkin, Sch of Geography, University of Leeds
Dr SP Blainey, School of Engineering Sciences, University of Southampton
Prof NJ Eyre, Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford
Dr D Farmer, Mathematical Institute, University of Oxford
Mr AC Ford, Sch of Engineering, Newcastle University
Mr V Glenis, Sch of Engineering, Newcastle University
Professor N Jenkins, Engineering, Cardiff University
Mr C Kilsby, Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Newcastle University
Professor RJ Nicholls, Faculty of Engineering and the Environment, University of Southampton
Professor W Powrie, Faculty of Engineering and the Environment, University of Southampton
Professor JM Preston, Faculty of Engineering and the Environment, University of Southampton
Professor P Tyler, Land Economy, University of Cambridge
Prof J Watson, Bartlett Sch of Env, Energy & Resources, University College London
Dr J Wu, Engineering, Cardiff University

Project Contact, Volterra Consulting
Project Contact, ARCC
Project Contact, Transport Systems Catapult
Project Contact, Zurich Global Corporate UK
Project Contact, CH2M HILL United Kingdom
Project Contact, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), France
Project Contact, Analysys Mason Limited (UK)
Project Contact, Suez Environment Uk Limited
Project Contact, Infrastructure and Project Authority
Project Contact, Department of Energy & Climate Change
Project Contact, Committee on Climate Change
Project Contact, United Nations Office for Project Services (UNOPS), Denmark
Project Contact, Ove Arup & Partners Ltd
Project Contact, Satellite Applications Catapult
Project Contact, Energy Research Partnership ERP
Project Contact, Thames Water Utilities Plc
Project Contact, Institution of Civil Engineers (ICE)
Project Contact, Greater London Authority
Project Contact, Infrastructure Ops Adaptation Forum
Project Contact, National Grid plc
Project Contact, Broadband Stakeholder Group
Project Contact, Willis Limited
Project Contact, University of Padua (Padova), Italy
Project Contact, GTE Carbon, Turkey
Project Contact, Institution of Mechanical Engineers
Project Contact, Costain Ltd
Project Contact, Ordnance Survey
Project Contact, Transport for London
Project Contact, Newcastle City Council
Project Contact, Ofcom
Project Contact, JBA Trust
Project Contact, Future Cities Catapult
Project Contact, UK Power Networks
Project Contact, Northumbrian Water Ltd
Project Contact, Black & Veatch
Project Contact, KPMG
Project Contact, Lloyd's Register
Project Contact, Microsoft Research Ltd
Project Contact, European Investment Bank, Luxembourg
Project Contact, The Core Cities group
Project Contact, ACCIONA S.A., Spain
Project Contact, Mohammad Bin Rashid Al Maktoum Knowledge Foundation, Dubai
Project Contact, Shell Research B.V., The Netherlands
Project Contact, Improbable Worlds Ltd
Project Contact, Network Rail Ltd
Project Contact, BP International Ltd
Project Contact, Environmental Agency
Project Contact, Transport for Greater Manchester
Project Contact, Department for Transport
Project Contact, Siemens plc (UK)
Project Contact, Bury College
Project Contact, University of Oxford
Project Contact, TechUK
Project Contact, RWE Power International
Project Contact, Atkins

National infrastructure provides essential services to a modern economy: energy, transport, digital communications, water supply, flood protection, and waste water / solid waste collection, treatment and disposal. The OECD estimates that globally US$53 trillion of infrastructure investment will be needed by 2030. The UK's National Infrastructure Plan set out over 460 billion of investment in the next decade, but is not yet known what effect that investment will have on the quality and reliability of national infrastructure services, the size of the economy, the resilience of society or its impacts upon the environment. Such a gap in knowledge exists because of the sheer complexity of infrastructure networks and their interactions with people and the environment. That means that there is too much guesswork, and too many untested assumptions in the planning, appraisal and design of infrastructure, from European energy networks to local drainage systems.Our vision is for infrastructure decisions to be guided by systems analysis. When this vision is realised, decision makers will have access to, and visualisation of, information that tells them how all infrastructure systems are performing. They will have models that help to pinpoint vulnerabilities and quantify the risks of failure. They will be able to perform 'what-if' analysis of proposed investments and explore the effects of future uncertainties, such as population growth, new technologies and climate change.The UK Infrastructure Transitions Research Consortium (ITRC) is a consortium of seven UK universities, led by the University of Oxford, which has developed unique capability in infrastructure systems analysis, modelling and decision making. Thanks to an EPSRC Programme Grant (2011-2015) the ITRC has developed and demonstrated the world's first family of national infrastructure system models (NISMOD) for analysis and long-term planning of interdependent infrastructure systems. The research is already beng used by utility companies, engineering consultants, the Institution of Civil Engineers and many parts of the UK government, to analyse risks and inform billions of pounds worth of better infrastructure decisions. Infrastructure UK is now using NISMOD to analyse the National Infrastructure Plan.The aim of MISTRAL is to develop and demonstrate a highly integrated analytics capability to inform strategic infrastructure decision making across scales, from local to global. MISTRAL will thereby radically extend infrastructure systems analysis capability:- Downscale: from ITRC's pioneering representation of national networks to the UK's 25.7 million households and 5.2 million businesses, representing the infrastructure services they demand and the multi-scale networks through which these services are delivered.- Upscale: from the national perspective to incorporate global interconnections via telecommunications, transport and energy networks.- Across-scale: to other national settings outside the UK, where infrastructure needs are greatest and where systems analysis represents a huge business opportunity for UK engineering firms.These research challenges urgently need to be tackled because infrastructure systems are interconnected across scales and prolific technological innovation is now occurring that will exploit, or may threaten, that interconnectedness. MISTRAL will push the frontiers of system research in order to quantify these opportunities and risks, providing the evidence needed to plan, invest in and design modern, sustainable and resilient infrastructure services.Five years ago, proposing theory, methodology and network models that stretched from the household to the globe, and from the UK to different national contexts would not have been credible. Now the opportunity for multi-scale modelling is coming into sight, and ITRC, perhaps uniquely, has the capacity and ambition to take on that challenge in the MISTRAL programme.

23/08/16