Projects: Projects for Investigator
Reference Number NIA_SPEN_0045
Title SAFE-HD (Spatial Analysis of Future Electric Heat Demand)
Status Completed
Energy Categories Other Cross-Cutting Technologies or Research(Demographics) 10%;
Other Cross-Cutting Technologies or Research(Energy Models) 45%;
Other Cross-Cutting Technologies or Research(Energy system analysis) 45%;
Research Types Applied Research and Development 100%
Science and Technology Fields ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY (Electrical and Electronic Engineering) 70%;
ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY (Architecture and the Built Environment) 30%;
UKERC Cross Cutting Characterisation Not Cross-cutting 50%;
Sociological economical and environmental impact of energy (Consumer attitudes and behaviour) 50%;
Principal Investigator Project Contact
No email address given
SP Energy Networks
Award Type Network Innovation Allowance
Funding Source Ofgem
Start Date 01 August 2019
End Date 31 December 2021
Duration ENA months
Total Grant Value £200,000
Industrial Sectors Power
Region Scotland
Programme Network Innovation Allowance
Investigators Principal Investigator Project Contact , SP Energy Networks (100.000%)
  Other Investigator Project Contact , SP Energy Networks (100.000%)
  Industrial Collaborator Project Contact , SP Energy Networks (0.000%)
Web Site
Objectives It is proposed that this project will consist of two packages. Package 1 is the core SAFE HD analysis which will be carried out using the following methods outlined below.Phase 1 - Geospatial Analysis:This analysis is undertaken to examine the diversity of UK residential heat demand, dwelling characteristics and social demographics, representable for the different nature of distribution networks. Building on this, households will be characterised by their behaviour and attitudes towards alternative heating technology uptake. Critical literature review and stakeholder engagement are important to avoid potential duplication of innovation, this should cover other sectors such as Gas/Heat. Phase 2 - SAFE-HD Model:The SAFE-HD model is proposed to be a spatially explicit agent based model (ABM) that will be developed and used to explore the spatial distributions of future electric heat demand under uncertainty. The SAFE-HD model will be soft-linked with the whole energy systems model called UK-TIMES (UKTM) in order to account for wider energy system interactions under different decarbonisation pathways for residential heating. The UKTM model, is a long-run single region whole energy systems least cost optimisation model for the UK, that was notably used by the UK Government to inform the Clean Growth Strategy. Examples of the type of soft-links proposed between the SAFE-HD model and UKTM are heat demands, technology characteristics and modelling constraints.Phase 3 - Network Impact Assessments:Based on the learning from Phase 1 and the outputs from Phase 2 in the form of spatially disaggregated data, spatial investigations will be conducted to assess how the findings relate to existing network infrastructure. The network planning process is an ongoing process, therefore efforts will be made to permit the tracking of heat demand and technology uptake over time so that triggers for necessary network planning actions such as least regret network reinforcements can be identified. Package 2 involves analysis of data obtained from early adopters which will complement the work carried out through the SAFE HD analysis. In this package we undertake an analysis of data obtained through a number of existing projects relating to the decarbonisation of heat currently being undertaken in the SPEN network region. This includes a monitoring of heat pumps being installed within new housing developments and 3 phase instantaneous water heaters being installed at a development within Chester city centre. Within this package an attempt to extrapolate the impact of individual LCTs on the overall ADMD will be undertaken. This project will have full GB coverage for the residential sector. Based on initial research activities, the spatial resolution could be as high as postcode level for the whole of Great Britain (GB). Package 1:Phase 1 - Geospatial Analysis:Generate high spatial resolution heat energy demand estimates based on actual energy consumption data and investigate how these heat demands relate to type of heating system, dwelling characteristics and social demographics.Characterise households by their behaviour and attitudes towards alternative heating technology uptake.Phase 2 SAFE-HD Model:Develop the SAFE-HD agent based model and explore the spatial distributions of future electric heat demand under uncertainty.Phase 3 Network Impact Assessments:Conduct network impact assessments with the aim of identifying least regret network investment options required. Recommend how the tools and methods developed for the SAFE-HD project can be used by all DNOs. Package 2:Extrapolate individual LCTs effect on ADMD.Assess the impact of heat pumps and electric water heating in off gas grid areas.
Abstract Electrifying a large amount of heat demand is expected to impact future network infrastructure due to the scale and seasonal nature of heat demand. This project aims to develop and apply methods to explore optimal decarbonisation pathways to determine likely future heating technology mixes against a backdrop of policy, cost and demand uncertainties.
Publications (none)
Final Report (none)
Added to Database 14/12/22