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Projects: Projects for Investigator
Reference Number NIA_NPG_006
Title Modelling Asset Risk
Status Completed
Energy Categories Other Power and Storage Technologies(Electricity transmission and distribution) 100%;
Research Types Applied Research and Development 100%
Science and Technology Fields ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY (Electrical and Electronic Engineering) 100%
UKERC Cross Cutting Characterisation Not Cross-cutting 100%
Principal Investigator Project Contact
No email address given
Northern Powergrid
Award Type Network Innovation Allowance
Funding Source Ofgem
Start Date 01 September 2015
End Date 01 September 2016
Duration 12 months
Total Grant Value £332,000
Industrial Sectors Power
Region Yorkshire & Humberside
Programme Network Innovation Allowance
Investigators Principal Investigator Project Contact , Northern Powergrid (100.000%)
Web Site http://www.smarternetworks.org/project/NIA_NPG_006
Objectives The objectives of the project are: To implement general model refinement such as usability, dashboarding & data inputs Presentation of outputs (use of mapping tools to identify "hotspots") Revisit intervention methodology Enhanced investment planning: Revisit scheme allocation methodology (investment planning-focused workshops); Optimise investment scenarios to achieve target levels of risk (with risk constraints); Optimise investment scenarios to achieve unit cost reductions; Scheme associations across all asset categories; Planned interventions across all asset categories (just Primary so far); Align risk quantification to the requirements of the Common Methodology; Develop the modelling capability around the high-volume low-value asset categories

The project will be considered delivered once Northern Powergrid is in receipt of the final models with the agreed functionality.

  1. Tool Enhancement:
    • Optimise to achieve target levels of risk (with risk constraints) : Enhanced functionality over and above existing methodology successfully added to the existing model
    • o Develop NPg modelling capability around the high-volume low-value asset categories: HV cables, LV cables and pole mounted transformers added to the modelling environment
    • Implement enhancements to functionality identified in Phases 1 to 4 during 2014/15: Enhanced functionality to existing methodology successfully added to the existing model
  2. Methodology Enhancement
    • Evaluate and Improve underlying intervention methodologies: Internal workshops held to inform improved intervention modelling. Functionality added to models.
    • Model synergies which can deliver efficiencies: Enhanced functionality over and above existing methodology successfully added to the existing model
  3. Investment Planning
    • Optimise to achieve unit cost reductions: NPg able to carry out unit cost scenario analysis using the AIMMS model
    • Incorporate an investment planning perspective: Enhanced functionality (over and above existing methodology) identified through targeted workshops and successfully added to the existing model
  4. Risk Outputs and Calculation
    • To align to Common Methodology: Risk calculation methodology revised in accordance with the requirements of the Common Methodology
    • Enhance model output functionality: The current sets of output pages would be fully reviewed with wider members of the NPg team.
Abstract Over the last decade Northern Powergrid has developed a suite of condition based risk models. The parameters that drive these decision support tools are now relatively stable and the functionality well embedded into key internal business processes. The models contain high levels of inherent complexity and uncertainty, in particular associated with the subjectivity of input data (condition bands and weightings) and forecasting model error. Further, the overall volume of data per asset, and the number of assets now covered in the suite of models, presents its own challenges in terms of the robustness of the models and the processes by which these models are updated, manipulated and interrogated. This project addresses these challenges. . decisionLab is a consultancy which specialises in developing bespoke and customised Operational Research and statistical models. Northern Powergrid entered a project in May 2014 to evaluate the decisionLab modelling approach. The project was completed on 31/03/2015 with Northern Powergrid taking delivery of the populated and customised Asset Risk Model (ARM). Some enhancements have already been identified to the models and in addition a number of emerging requirements were identified during Part 1 of the project. This project therefore considers a further iterative stage (Part 2) of this project which would be achieved through four discrete "delivery packages (DP)" of work: DP1: TOOL ENHANCEMENT: During Part 1 of this project there were a number of areas for enhancement identified, and DP1 will capture the most important of these, including Target Risk, new asset categories (where no HI models exist) and enhanced input/output facilities. DP2: METHODOLOGY ENHANCEMENT: The existing ARM brings together multiple asset classes onto the same platform, and primarily reproduces the existing NPg intervention methodologies being applied within these classes. DP2 will take the opportunity to innovate and to improve the underlying intervention methodology and in particular to look for synergies and smarter interventions. DP3: INVESTMENT PLANNING: DP3 will include unit cost reductions as an alternative focus for reducing risk within a budget, and prioritising procurement efforts. Further functionality in this package will be refined in consultation with investment planning team members within NPg. More details of scope to be agreed over the coming months. DP4: RISK CALCULATION AND OUTPUTS: Incorporation of common methodology risk calculation and advanced visualisation of outputs.Note : Project Documents may be available via the ENA Smarter Networks Portal using the Website link above
Publications (none)
Final Report (none)
Added to Database 14/09/18