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Projects: Projects for Investigator
Reference Number NIA_NGET0155
Title Open Source Interconnector Modelling: Phase 1
Status Completed
Energy Categories Other Power and Storage Technologies(Electricity transmission and distribution) 100%;
Research Types Applied Research and Development 100%
Science and Technology Fields PHYSICAL SCIENCES AND MATHEMATICS (Computer Science and Informatics) 25%;
ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY (Electrical and Electronic Engineering) 75%;
UKERC Cross Cutting Characterisation Not Cross-cutting 100%
Principal Investigator Project Contact
No email address given
National Grid Electricity Transmission
Award Type Network Innovation Allowance
Funding Source Ofgem
Start Date 01 December 2014
End Date 01 June 2015
Duration 6 months
Total Grant Value £1
Industrial Sectors Power
Region London
Programme Network Innovation Allowance
Investigators Principal Investigator Project Contact , National Grid Electricity Transmission (100.000%)
Web Site http://www.smarternetworks.org/project/NIA_NGET0155
Objectives The key objectives of the project are: Enhance open source modelling of operational cost implications of interconnectors Ensure that the improved model can be easily expanded to include new interconnector projects as they get developed, and details regarding impacted markets Test the model for selected TYNDP 2016 projects Share the improved model with industry stakeholders e.g. regulator, TOs and developers. Achieving the desired improvements within ELSI environment regarding interconnector modelling and being able to share the improved model with the key stakeholders in the industry in timely fashion will be the key success criteria of this project. Success is also defined as having a refined model and having completed Phase 1 pilot testing.
Abstract Drivers for interconnector modelling In light of the European Commission’s and key stakeholders’ objective to facilitate creation of a Single Energy Market across Europe, accompanied with an aspirational target of achieving at least 10% interconnection for every member state, the significance of interconnectors for the GB market has increased considerably. This growing significance is further emphasised by Ofgem’s recent Interconnector Cap and Floor consultation, which invites developers to submit cases for approval for projects which can be delivered by December 2020. Some of these projects may also receive PCI (Project of Common Interest) status through the Europe wide Ten Year Network Development Plan. Furthermore, Ofgem’s recently published ITPR consultation document states that under an enhanced System Operator role, National Grid would need to provide additional economic analysis on possible future interconnection development. As interconnectors grow in significance within the GB market, the need to understand their impacts on the operation of the network increases simultaneously. These clearly drive the need for improved interconnector modelling for the GB network. Our current capability Flows on an interconnector result in operational cost implications for the GB network. Forecasts of interconnector flows are a function of the energy price differential between the interconnected member states. Our current capability to model interconnector flows and their implications on the operational costs of the GB network is not suited for scenarios with significant increased interconnector impacts on the GB Network. Our in-house tool, ELSI (Electricity Scenario Illustrator), which is freely available to industry stakeholders, provides a good starting point. However, it has a key drawback. In particular, ELSI can forecast the GB system marginal price for all 365 days (by four periods) of the year up to 20 years for Future Energy Scenarios. In comparison, ELSI adopts an annual price forecast for interconnected member states. Such an approach can distort the analysis outputs significantly. As the significance and deployment of interconnectors increases, the distortion could start to exceed the modelling margin of errors. In light of the above, we need to considerably improve our understanding of the operational cost implications of interconnectors. Way forward NGET currently has an established tool for long term operational cost forecasts: an excel based tool, available to download for free in the public domain - ELSI. This allows the industry e.g. other TOs, generators etc, to access the tool and undertake analysis. However, as highlighted above, the model’s ability to forecast interconnector flows and their implications on operational costs is limited. An approach which seeks to purchase an off the shelf market models e.g. PROMOD, BID or POWRSYM have a considerable one off set up cost (e.g. £250,000 - £500,000). Equally, there is typically a requirement to pay a annual licence fee to maintain and operate such models (e.g. £3,000 per annum per user). As the intellectual property of the model is maintained by developers, we will not be able to make commercial model available other users. That said, following the best practice principles of knowledge sharing embedded within ELSI, we wish to enhance interconnector modelling within the ELSI framework. Improving interconnector modelling in ELSI, which allows users to calculate system marginal price of member states in Europe, has considerable merits. In particular, the intellectual property of end product will be maintained by NGET, and this enhanced excel based model will be available to all industry participants freely to undertake their own analysis (with access to appropriate data). Research and Development It is proposed to deliver this critical improvement using competitively procured industry experts. Our approach to deliver this two phased assignment is outlined below: Phase 1 (the focus of this round of funding, for completion by summer 2015): Detailed scoping exercise to outline the requirements, in consultation with in house ELSI developer and key users Competitive tendering process to invite external consultants with proposals Award contract Consultants develop a pilot model (manage consultant’s outputs, through a study steering group)Phase 1 (internal) pilot testing of the model Phase 2 (for completion by winter 2015): Phase 2, live testing of the model, as part of TYNDP 16 market modelling (for projects which impact GB only)NGET Roll out, publication of the tool in the public domainNote : Project Documents may be available via the ENA Smarter Networks Portal using the Website link above
Publications (none)
Final Report (none)
Added to Database 17/09/18