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Projects: Projects for Investigator
Reference Number NIA_NGGD0030
Title Review and Validation of the current gas demand forecasting methodology
Status Completed
Energy Categories Fossil Fuels: Oil Gas and Coal(Oil and Gas, Refining, transport and storage of oil and gas) 100%;
Research Types Applied Research and Development 100%
Science and Technology Fields PHYSICAL SCIENCES AND MATHEMATICS (Applied Mathematics) 50%;
ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY (Mechanical, Aeronautical and Manufacturing Engineering) 50%;
UKERC Cross Cutting Characterisation Not Cross-cutting 100%
Principal Investigator Project Contact
No email address given
Cadent Gas
Award Type Network Innovation Allowance
Funding Source Ofgem
Start Date 01 April 2014
End Date 01 December 2014
Duration 8 months
Total Grant Value £139,480
Industrial Sectors Information Technologies
Region London
Programme Network Innovation Allowance
Investigators Principal Investigator Project Contact , Cadent Gas (100.000%)
Web Site http://www.smarternetworks.org/project/NIA_NGGD0030
Objectives The aim of this project is to undertake a comprehensive assessment of the methodology used for generating year-ahead gas demand forecasts. To identify enhancements and support scoping the future demand scenario and forecast requirements. Success of this project will be a comprehensive assessment of the methodology used for generating year-ahead gas demand forecasts having been successfully carried out and an output report produced to detail the findings and recommendations for suggested enhancements that can be carried forward for implementation.
Abstract National Grid’s National Transmission System (NTS) provides the year-ahead annual gas demand forecasts. These forecasts are then used to book capacity to meet the UK’s year-ahead gas demand. Having accurate and robust demand forecasts is critical to the business. Current annual demand forecasting processes are based on historical methodologies which have not been subject to comprehensive review and there is evidence to suggest that refinements to this process could result in significant capacity booking cost savings to consumers, through the application of appropriate mathematics, statistics, modelling and algorithms. This project will conduct an evaluation of the existing gas demand forecasting methodology through an exhaustive review of the intervening steps, and an assessment of the methodology that underpins the generation of the Future Energy Scenarios (‘Gone Green’ and ‘Slow Progression’) for the NTS. There will be an assessment of the methodologies used for generating year-ahead annual gas demand forecast and the 1 in 20 peak demand forecast.Note : Project Documents may be available via the ENA Smarter Networks Portal using the Website link above
Publications (none)
Final Report (none)
Added to Database 11/12/18