Risk Assessment Methodologies for Pipelines and AGIs 2018

Completed

Fossil Fuels: Oil Gas and Coal(Oil and Gas, Refining, transport and storage of oil and gas)

Applied Research and Development

ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY (Mechanical, Aeronautical and Manufacturing Engineering)

Sociological economical and environmental impact of energy (Policy and regulation)

Project Contact
National Grid Gas Transmission

Network Innovation Allowance

Ofgem

01 April 2018

01 April 2019

ENA months

£144,000

Energy

London

Network Innovation Allowance

Project Contact, National Grid Gas Transmission

Project Contact, Cadent Gas

The various elements for this innovation project are listed below. In the format of topic, title of key tasks (sub-projects), indication of Joint Industry Project (JIP), with associated leverage where possible.Hazard and Risk Assessment Methods for GT Pipelines:PIPESAFE (JIP) 8:1 leverage.HAMM Maintenance PipelinesData for Failure Frequency Estimation for Use in Risk Analysis:FFA Phase 3 (JIP) 10:1 leveragesAGIFF Phase 2 (JIP) 8:1 leverage Hazard and Risk Assessment Methods for Above-Ground Installations:ORDER ( JIP) 7:1 leverageHAMM Update for AGIs Potential for Interaction between Parallel Pipelines:GMG Phase 2 (JIP). Effectiveness of Safety-improving Measures:ESM Phase 4 (JIP). The high-pressure national GT system (NTS) is a complex combination of buried pipelines and above-ground installations (AGIs); including pressure reduction stations, compressor stations and terminals. These assets present potential major hazards, such as fire risk, in the unlikely event of accidental releases of gas, which can be due to a range of causes. Hazard and Risk Assessment Methods for GT Pipelines The PIPESAFE JIP provides the tools to assist NG and CG in discharging their obligations by developing and refining techniques for quantifying the risk associated with pipeline and above ground assets. In the period covered by the current proposal (201718), topics being addressed in the PIPESAFE JIP include a review of the evidence for the behaviour of gas jets in a crater (and, in particular, why horizontal releases are not considered credible for below-ground gas pipeline ruptures) and completion of work to implement the new crater fire model developed last year to improve handling of complex failure modes (e.g. pipeline misalignment), by establishing the methodology for the application of the model in fully probabilistic risk assessments. An updated version of PIPESAFE will be issued to all the Participants, incorporating the latest changes and improvements to the package, and a summary report of the activities undertaken during the year will be provided.Specific development topics to support the use of PIPESAFE by NG and CG include: A screening process for risk assessment of IGEM/TD/1 infringements and development of a risk screening tool aligned with National Grid and Cadents methodology. Updates to the methodology to capture learning from recent research on natural landsliding. Data for Failure Frequency Estimation for Use in Risk Analysis A key component of risk analysis is the predicted frequency of failure. Historical data provides an important means of ensuring that appropriate values are used, based on experience. However, an individual company rarely has sufficient experience for meaningful analysis of the frequency of major accidents. By pooling experience with other companies operating similar assets in similar ways, a combined body of data can be used which provides sufficient exposure for analysis of frequencies. This area of research participation by NG and CGs in two international JIPs to facilitate the sharing of data by gas pipeline companies operating similar assets in similar ways, in order to provide sufficient data for investigation and analysis: Firstly; Failure Frequency Analysis (FFA) project gas release incidents for onshore GT pipelines and secondly; AGI Failure Frequency (AGIFF) project gas release incidents for high pressure gas above-ground installations.Hazard and Risk Assessment Methods for Above-Ground InstallationsTheORDER Joint Industry Project (JIP) involves an international group of gas companies collaborating on the development and maintenance of the ORDER software package for consequence and risk assessment of gas facilities including AGIs (Above Ground Installations). Topics continuing to be be addressed in the ORDER JIP include CFD studies to investigate the overpressures generated by explosions in large enclosures, to guide the development of the confined explosion model in ORDER. An updated version of ORDER will be issued to all the Participants, incorporating the latest changes and improvements to the package, and a summary report of the activities undertaken during the year will be provided.Effectiveness of Safety-improving MeasuresUnderground steel pipelines are subject to a variety of influences that threaten their integrity. Pipeline operators have a variety of physical and non-physical methods available to them to reduce the likelihood of these threats. Phase 4 of the project commences in early 2018. Research into the enduring management of safety risks on pipelines and above ground installations. The project includes the implementation of the results via tools and methodologies that are aligned specifically to NG and CG needs, and are equally relevant to the UK gas industry, utilising the results of the international collaborations as appropriate.

The continuous management and improvement of safety risks on GT pipelines and above ground installations (AGIs) requires development of wide ranging models and procedures. The type of event which affects pipelines and assets located on an AGI is of low frequency, but can have extremely high consequences, therefore it requires accurate models to make safety decisions and keep risks as low as reasonably practicable. Because of this challenge, the efficient development of models and procedures has historically been coordinated through joint ventures.

15/12/22