Gas demand forecasting Phase 2

Completed

Other Cross-Cutting Technologies or Research(Energy Models)
Other Cross-Cutting Technologies or Research(Energy system analysis)
Energy Efficiency(Residential and commercial)
Fossil Fuels: Oil Gas and Coal(Oil and Gas, Other oil and gas)
Other Cross-Cutting Technologies or Research(Other Supporting Data)
Hydrogen and Fuel Cells(Hydrogen, Other infrastructure and systems R&D)

Applied Research and Development

ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY (Mechanical, Aeronautical and Manufacturing Engineering)

Systems Analysis related to energy R&D (Other Systems Analysis)
Systems Analysis related to energy R&D (Energy modelling)

Project Contact
Wales and West Utilities

Network Innovation Allowance

Ofgem

01 June 2018

01 October 2018

ENA months

£208,667

Energy

Wales

Network Innovation Allowance

Project Contact, Wales and West Utilities

Project Contact, Northern Gas Networks
Project Contact, SGN
Project Contact, Cadent Gas

Specific areas of demand / supply as documented below will be subject to further, more detailed analysis based on a wider range of sources and using input from a wider range of stakeholders / geographies through collaboration with other GDNs.1. Consolidation of all domestic analysis to understand the combined effect of all potential residential measures / changes including electric heat pump (ASHP, GSHP), hybrid heat pumps, gas heat pumps, heat networks, energy efficiency deployment, new build housing / new connections 2. More detailed look at the location of deployment of different measures (i.e. where, geographically, on the network are things likely to happen & and what pressure levels will the impacts be seen)3. More detailed look at electric and gas vehicles including, uptake rates, clustering and charging options (infrastructure, location, charging behaviours)4. Analysing the combined effect of HPs and EVs (the electrification and gasification of heat and transport) focussing on the load profiles of both HPs and EVs, diversification of these load profiles, and consideration of the time of use tariffs / DSR / flexing the load profiles5. Reviewing and challenging the relationship between annual gas demand and peak gas demand6. Scenarios around the future generation mix and the electricity output by different fuel types7. More detailed analysis on green gas injection8. Assess potential Impacts of policy / incentive change, what happens if,.9. Forecasting commercial / industrial separately, possible as part of gap 5 or between 1 and 2, consider growth strategy Location: All of UK can be considered, one of the outcomes of phase 1 was to consider whether sub-LDZ forecasting would provide additional value vs the additional effort / cost. This was shown to be a requirements for a subset of demand / supply types only. A range of new customer types / behaviours to be considered including, power generation, CHP, industrial Review of existing UK future of gas scenarios and storage solutions Assessment of existing, as well as new/alternative, WWU forecasting models Report on implications of findings, presentation and recommendation for future developments For each prioritised gap, Delta-ee proposes:1. developing a detailed list of actions required to plug the gap2. carrying out primary and secondary research to gather existing information around the key gaps3. developing forecasts for the uptake of different technologies, considering residential, commercial and industrial sectors separately.4. disaggregating / mapping forecasts at the national level to a more regional / local level to help understand where on the gas network impacts are likely to be seen5. reporting the data / results of the analysis in an easy to use format that can feed efficiently into existing models.

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15/12/22