Gas Infrastructure Serviceability Performance Assessment

Completed

Fossil Fuels: Oil Gas and Coal(Oil and Gas, Refining, transport and storage of oil and gas)

Applied Research and Development

ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY (Mechanical, Aeronautical and Manufacturing Engineering)
ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES (Earth Systems and Environmental Sciences)

Not Cross-cutting

Project Contact
Northern Gas Networks

Network Innovation Allowance

Ofgem

01 October 2015

01 February 2016

10 months

£68,731

Technical Consultancy

Yorkshire & Humberside

Network Innovation Allowance

Project Contact, Northern Gas Networks

By the end of this project we hope to have proven models that, by the addition of weather / temperature variables, give robust data to better inform NGN’s iron pipe replacement programme. The models will be for different pipe materials and diameters, which predict the number of leaks / failures that should be expected each month, based on the soil in which they are buried and the observed weather Identified what soil attributes affect the rate of pipe failureIdentified what climatic attributes affect the rate of pipe failureIdentified what infrastructure attributes affect the rate of pipe failureModelled the rate of failure (with good predictive success)

NGN’s current pipe selection processes are predominately retrospective looking at historical failure events to drive future pipe replacement. This project will try to predict future pipe failures based on weather, soil & temperature forecasts allowing NGN to select pipes for replacement in advance of failure. Buried infrastructure is susceptible to changes in the environment. Both the soil and the weather contribute to the expected rate of failure of pipes of different materials and diameters. NGN would like to better understand how the changing environment affects the number of leaking pipes in their infrastructure. Furthermore, NGN would like to be able to identify which pipe should be prioritised for replacement. Working with Cranfield University, the project will have 3 stages (the project can be stopped at the end of any stage should results prove inconclusive): Initial Investigation: Initial investigation on NGN data in light of the environmental parameters to build confidence that this investigation has a high chance of success. Work Package 1 - Exploratory data analysisThis stage will explore the key relationships between the data and the rate of pipe failure per km in different soil types or under different environmental conditions. Work Package 2 - Modelling and reporting: These model should give a set of predicted and observed numbers of leaks per period.Note : Project Documents may be available via the ENA Smarter Networks Portal using the Website link above

16/08/18