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Projects: Projects for Investigator
Reference Number NIA_NGN_135
Title Gas to the Future
Status Completed
Energy Categories Fossil Fuels: Oil Gas and Coal(Oil and Gas, Other oil and gas) 25%;
Fossil Fuels: Oil Gas and Coal(Oil and Gas, Refining, transport and storage of oil and gas) 50%;
Hydrogen and Fuel Cells(Hydrogen, Hydrogen transport and distribution) 25%;
Research Types Applied Research and Development 100%
Science and Technology Fields SOCIAL SCIENCES (Economics and Econometrics) 50%;
SOCIAL SCIENCES (Business and Management Studies) 50%;
UKERC Cross Cutting Characterisation Not Cross-cutting 100%
Principal Investigator Project Contact
No email address given
Northern Gas Networks
Award Type Network Innovation Allowance
Funding Source Ofgem
Start Date 01 January 2016
End Date 01 January 2017
Duration 12 months
Total Grant Value £128,538
Industrial Sectors Technical Consultancy
Region Yorkshire & Humberside
Programme Network Innovation Allowance
Investigators Principal Investigator Project Contact , Northern Gas Networks (100.000%)
Web Site http://www.smarternetworks.org/project/NIA_NGN_135
Objectives The objective of this project is to employ prescriptive analytics, to quantify the following for a range of shale and hydrogen gas scenarios: The total Investment required (Opex, Capex and Repex) to facilitate future scenariosNet change in GHG emissions (using the traded cost of carbon) to understand the benefit achieved in moving towards a low carbon economy. i. e. net change per scenario measured against the base case positionVolume of shale, hydrogen and natural gas imported and transportedThe Resilience of Shale gas demand (redundancy of demand)The Number and type of key technologies required (e. g. Steam Methane Reformers)The Requirement for regulatory change. A key objective is to ensure the objectives outlined above are communicated in an easily understandable and believable way. As such, the project will also provide a web-based graphical user interface that can demonstrate the different investment options for different levels of benefit (GHG emissions) for different futures for shale and hydrogen gas. Further, the model will quantify the overall uncertainty for each of the above listed variables across all scenarios, using error bars showing, for example, the 10th and 90th percentiles. The project will be judged a success if: The prescriptive analytics model represents and effectively communicates the different investment options and the associated benefit for a range of different futures for shale and hydrogen through a graphic user interface. The model provides information that is believable and can be understood and accepted at the correct order of magnitude by NGN experts and wider industry. This information will include: Total Investment required (Opex, Capex and Repex) to facilitate future scenarios; Net change in GHG emissionso Volume of shale, hydrogen and natural gas imported and transported; Resilience of shale gas demand; Number and type of key technologies required (e. g. Steam Methane Reformers); Requirement for regulatory change. The model provides a simple user interface for manipulating scenarios The model clearly demonstrates the art of the possible in terms of prescriptive analytics, scenario versus investment modelling, and the trade-off of cost, benefit and risk. The model provides confidence that the prescriptive analytics model is an effective communication tool and that the technology can contribute to informing our approach to meeting the Energy Trilemma
Abstract As the UK moves towards a low carbon economy we need to make sure that the gas sector remains relevant and can help to meet the challenges of the Climate Change Act. A significant factor influencing the role of gas in the medium and long term UK energy mix, is the scale at which the UK utilises alternative gas resources to meet energy demand. Here UK gas distribution network operators will not be passive players, as significant infrastructure investment will be required to make domestic shale, hydrogen and other alternative gases a viable part of UK’s response to the Energy Trilemma. Consequently, the UK gas distribution sector must be able to develop forward looking strategies and investment plans to support the UK in finding the optimal energy future to ensure the benefits of a low cost, low carbon energy source are delivered to customers. The volume of data and complexities involved mean that advanced data analytics that can provide actionable, forward-looking insights are requiredRecent advances in big data analytics, termed prescriptive analytics, mean that the barriers of cost, time and expertise to access such advanced analytics are lower than ever1. This project will deliver a proof of concept prescriptive analytics model, to explore possible future scenarios for the gas industry, to assess the short, medium and long-term investment decisions, trade-offs and implications, of modifying the Northern Gas Networks network to accomodate shale and hydrogen gas. The prescriptive analytics solution that will provide this functionality comprises two key elements: A prescriptive analytics model (linear programming, mixed integer optimisation) capable of holistically representing the current gas distribution network, as well as possible future investments, and scenarios for shale and hydrogen. The model will simultaneously represent current and future assets, network activity, current and future sources of gas (location, quality and quantity) and measure the impact on costs, greenhouse gas emissions, natural capital and risk for different investment strategies. This holistic and detailed modelling will ensure the scenarios developed will be robust, considering all interdependencies and knock-on effects. A user-friendly data visualisation tool to allow a wide range of users, including those from a non-technical background, to interactively explore the possible shale and hydrogen scenarios. The visualisation tool will allow users to manipulate key input variables and instantaneously see the impact on costs, greenhouse gas emissions, natural capital and risk.Note : Project Documents may be available via the ENA Smarter Networks Portal using the Website link above
Publications (none)
Final Report (none)
Added to Database 20/08/18