Heat pump deployment in Wales: executive summary
Abstract:
The decarbonisation of heat remains one of the most complex and uncertain challenges in achieving the UK's net zero targets. For Gas Distribution Networks (GDNs), the future of heat delivery is unclear, leaving limited indicators to guide long-term investment and operational planning. Among the few available signals are the heat pump deployment targets established through Local Area Energy Plans (LAEPs).
In Wales, the Government has formally adopted LAEPs to support a whole-systems approach to net zero, aligning local decision-making with national objectives. This executive summary condenses a report which was produced following a six-month placement at Wales & West Utilities, to assess the implications of LAEPs from a GDN's perspective. It explores the deployment rates required to meet LAEP targets and examines how these trajectories are likely to influence future gas demand.
The analysis shows that meeting LAEP targets will require a sharp and immediate increase in heat pump installations, with annual deployment rates often surpassing current gas boiler replacement levels. If similar trends are seen across the UK, overall deployment would be higher than what is targeted in the Seventh Carbon Budget. What's more, the longer substantial progress is delayed, the more difficult deployment will be to manage sustainably, as roll-out rates will have to exceed natural replacement cycles.
The findings also highlight the 2031-2036 price control period as a critical turning point when heat pump deployment is expected to peak and begin to significantly reduce gas throughput. These shifts are likely to create new operational and financial challenges for GDNs. Without sufficient flexibility from the regulator (Ofgem) to manage transitional inefficiencies and cost recovery, networks may face increased risk and reduced utilisation.
The report concludes with recommendations for how energy planning processes could be refined to better achieve their desired outcomes.
Publication Year:
2025
Publisher:
Cultivate Innovation
Author(s):
Brown, Z. and Colechin, M.
Energy Categories
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Language:
English
File Type:
application/pdf
File Size:
17369000 B
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Region:
United Kingdom
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Theme(s):
Delivering Energy System Infrastructure
Operating a Highly Renewable & Electrified Energy System
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