Heat pump deployment in Wales

Abstract:

As the UK intensifies efforts to decarbonise heating, Gas Distribution Networks (GDNs) are grappling with growing uncertainty about how rapidly low-carbon technologies - particularly heat pumps - will be adopted and how this will influence future gas demand. Recently, the Welsh Government has adopted Local Area Energy Plans (LAEPs) to help Local Authorities (LAs) navigate such uncertainties and coordinate local energy transitions using a whole-systems approach.

Designed to support net zero objectives and guide infrastructure investment, LAEPs align national and local ambitions while reflecting the specific characteristics and constraints of each area. They outline energy supply, demand, and storage needs, along with renewable deployment targets that illustrate how local energy systems might evolve.

This report, produced following a six-month placement with Wales and West Utilities, examines the implications of LAEPs from a GDN's perspective. It first assesses the scale of heat pump deployment required to meet LAEP targets, then considers the challenges that gas networks will encounter as heating becomes increasingly electrified, with a focus on the visions for the future of heat delivery outlined across the LAEPs.

The analysis indicates that, without an immediate acceleration in deployment, heat pump roll-out will need to surpass the current rate of gas boiler replacements in many regions, if LAEP heat pump deployment targets are to be met. Furthermore, delays in progress will widen the gap between natural boiler replacement cycles and the rate required to meet LAEP goals - making the transition more difficult to manage sustainably.

By estimating the associated reductions in gas demand, the study also identifies when heat pump uptake is likely to begin significantly affecting the gas network. Results suggest that the 2031-2036 price control period will be a pivotal phase, as heat pump installation peaks. Without sufficient flexibility from the regulator (Ofgem) to address resulting system inefficiencies, GDNs could face substantial financial strain.

The report discusses all of the outlined implications in detail and concludes with recommendations for how energy planning processes could be refined to better achieve their desired outcomes.

Publication Year:

2025

Publisher:

Cultivate Innovation

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.82226/543.p.000004

Author(s):

Brown, Z. and Colechin, M.