Heavy Duty Vehicle Efficiency Programme - On-Highway Market Analysis Project - Final Report
Abstract:
The aim of this project is to provide an improved understanding of the current activities and trends occurring in the On-Highway Heavy Duty Vehicle arena. Future technologies and legislation are being assessed to further enhance the our knowledge of the existing market and anticipated future market state.
- Demand for On Highway Heavy Duty Vehicles will grow from 3.34m vehicles in 2015 to 4.24m vehicles in 2030 (in the 6 large markets studied).
- The majority of this growth will be in the >7.5 ton vehicle sector, as the Chinese and Indian road transportation markets mature from an “owner operator” model towards a “fleet operator” model. The increase in vehicle weight will increase demand for larger displacement engines (>6 litres) and also encourage further uptake of Automatic Manual Transmissions (AMT) at the expense of manual transmissions.
- Diesel will remain as the dominant fuel type for HDVs with ~85% HDVs powered by Diesel Internal Combustion Engines in 2030.
- It is expected that City Buses will have greater levels of hybridisation and there will be a variety of technical solutions for City Buses, including fully electric, as inner city air quality concerns and legislation increases.
- Emissions legislation will continue to develop in the various regions, with increasing harmonisation between the standards. There is a trend towards increasing number of regulated pollutants, over a larger number of tests and an increased duration (life) that the vehicle must meet the targets. Some regions are beginning to use CO2 / fuel efficiency regulations and it is expected that this trend will spread to other regions over time
Publication Year:
2016
Publisher:
ETI
Author(s):
Patterson, J., Story, J. and White, B.
Energy Categories
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Language:
English
File Type:
application/pdf
File Size:
2109575 B
Rights:
Energy Technologies Institute Open Licence for Materials
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Further information:
N/A
Region:
United Kingdom
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