Visioning and Backcasting for UK Transport Policy.

Abstract:

<p>The issues relating to climate change have risen dramatically to the top of the political agenda, and the importance of transport in contributing to reducing levels of CO₂ is clearly evident: yet the problem remains that traffic levels continue to rise. All the projections suggest that significantly reducing emissions from current levels is likely to be very difficult. As urban and transport planners, policy makers and the public, we need to start to think very differently about tackling the global emissions problem.</p> <p>The VIBAT project (Visioning and Backcasting for UK Transport Policy) has examined the possibility of reducing transport CO₂ emissions by 60 per cent by 2030. It has examined a range of policy measures (i.e. pricing, regulation and technological), and assessed how they can be effectively combined to achieve this level of CO₂ emissions reduction. The intention has been to assess whether such an ambitious target is feasible, to identify the main problems, and to comment on the main decision points. The study is based on the innovative research technique of backcasting, which has been used for the first time in the transport planning field in the UK.</p> <p>This executive summary is mainly targeted at policy recommendations. Those interested in more details of the research carried out during the DfT Horizons Research Project 2004/05 should refer to the three extended working papers and presentations produced during the research (September 2004 - November 2005) and to a sister document on methodological issues.</p> The two main objectives for the VIBAT project are: <ol> <li>To test the visioning and backcasting methodologies as a means to assess challenging new environmental targets for UK transport policy - this is the methodological objective;</li> <li>To produce a set of images of the future that represent different alternative visions for the year 2030, and to determine alternative policy packages that it would be necessary to introduce to achieve these images, together with the policy paths that highlight when change has to take place - this is the policy objective.</li> </ol></p> <p>The VIBAT project has demonstrated through the use of a sound and innovative methodology that the targets set are achievable provided that there is not a substantial increase in travel between 2000 and 2030.</p> <p>The old debate in terms of relying on technological improvements to help maintain our current CO₂ intensive lifestyles seems to be obsolete. We need a renewed emphasis over a very wide range of fields. Multi-disciplinary thinking is critical. </p> This executive summary is divided into the following sections: <ol> <li>Towards a 60% reduction in transport emissions</li> <li>Visioning the backcasting for the future</li> <li>The VIBAT baseline and projections</li> <li>The VIBAT images of the future</li> <li>Policy packages</li> <li>Package clustering and policy pathways</li> <li>The way forward for policy makers</li> </ol>

Author(s):

Hickman, R. and Banister, D.